By Wallace Witkowski, MarketWatch

It's up to the consumer putting money where it matters most

Investors this week will see if the U.S. consumer is opening his wallet--and whether he has more in it to spend--as early holiday shopping sales data roll in and the November jobs report indicates whether there has been any real wage growth.

In last week's holiday-shortened trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 index edged up less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.4%.

With a raft of data coming this week, two things are going to stand out: early returns on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/retailers-are-counting-on-black-friday-after-lackluster-third-quarter-earnings-2015-11-25), and the last jobs report before the Federal Reserve meets in December, according to Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management.

Read: Thanksgiving shopping at stores 'was a bust' (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/thanksgiving-shopping-at-stores-was-a-bust-2015-11-27).

Last week, consumer sentiment improved in November (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-improves-in-november---but-with-a-hitch-2015-11-25) but not as much as previously indicated, and consumer confidence fell (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-falls-to-lowest-level-in-14-months-2015-11-24)to its lowest level in more than a year. While those metrics may provide some insight into the minds of consumers, Nolte said the early holiday sales number will be much more telling.

Also see: Black Friday is getting a boost from e-commerce sales (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/black-friday-is-getting-a-boost-from-e-commerce-sales-2015-11-27).

"We're not so much interested in what [consumers] say, but what they do," Nolte said.

A weak holiday season could potentially sap what momentum there is from the U.S. economy, according to Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Nicolaus, in a recent note.

"As a consumer-based economy, if consumers are not happy and healthy out in the marketplace spending on goods and services, particularly in the key holiday spending season, there is very little hope for sustaining the current status-quo, let alone optimism to anticipate additional momentum from the U.S. economy in the near-term," Piegza said.

Wage growth key to November jobs report

Regarding the November jobs report on Friday, the one real point of interest will be wage growth, which hasn't always been aided by strong jobs growth.

"Everybody is looking for wage-inflation growth because that is needed to justify the Fed raising rates," Nolte said.

After weathering last week's geopolitical events, investors should expect an upward bias to stocks, with perhaps a 1% to 1.5% rise in the S&P 500 from now until the end of the year, Nolte said. But, as the portfolio manager admitted, the S&P 500 has had trouble staying above 2,100 because share-buyback fueled earnings have been providing tenuous market support.

Other economic indicators out this week include November car sales and the ISM manufacturing indicator on Monday, and the ISM services indicator on Thursday.

Only six S&P 500 companies report earnings this week: Brown-Forman Corp.(BFA) and Avago Technologies Ltd.(AVGO) on Wednesday, with Medtronic PLC(MDT), Kroger Co.(KR), PVH Corp.(PVH) and Dollar General Corp.(DG) on Thursday.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 29, 2015 08:01 ET (13:01 GMT)