Adobe Forecasts U.S. Online Sales to Surpass $100 Billion This Holiday Season
November 02 2017 - 5:00AM
Business Wire
Cyber Monday to Become Largest Online Shopping Day in History
with $6.6 Billion in Sales
Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its online shopping
predictions for the upcoming holiday season. Based on Adobe
Analytics, Adobe expects that online sales will be $107.4 billion,
an increase of 13.8 percent, while in-store retail is expected to
grow ten percent.* Cyber Monday is expected to become the largest
online shopping day in history, generating $6.6 billion in sales,
16.5 percent growth compared to last year. Sales on Thanksgiving
Day are expected to increase 15 percent YoY to $2.8 billion. One
out of every six dollars this holiday season will be spent between
Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, leading to $19.7 billion in sales.
The most anticipated gifts include Hasbro NERF guns, Nintendo
Switch, Apple Air Pods and Sony PlayStation® VR.
While large retailers (more than $100 million in annual revenue)
will see higher order values and desktop conversion rates than
smaller retailers (less than $10 million in annual revenue), the
latter are expected to have the mobile advantage with a higher
average conversion rate of 1.9 percent by attracting more shoppers
with an intent to buy. Adobe Analytics data also forecasts that
shoppers will gravitate towards purchasing more lower-priced items
online as opposed to big ticket items. While toys and apparel saw a
39 percent and 20 percent unit growth respectively last holiday
season, jewelry sales came in low, with a three percent decline in
unit growth. These trends are expected to continue this season.
“This year’s record-breaking online holiday shopping season is
built on the strength of the big players,” said Mickey Mericle,
vice president, Marketing and Insights at Adobe. “We predict the
biggest retailers with wide selections, easy shopping experiences
and free shipping, to drive online holiday growth this year. Still,
there is opportunity for savvy small retailers to win, specifically
with mobile experiences. As revenue growth plateaus, retailers will
be competing hard for customers by offering steep discounts and
providing a seamless customer journey.”
Additional findings include:
- Most Anticipated Gift Items: The
most desired electronics this holiday season include Apple Air
Pods, Sony PlayStation® VR as well as home assistants, including
Amazon Echo and Google Home. Nostalgia reigns supreme with toys and
video games, as Hasbro NERF Guns, Nintendo Switch and Super Mario
Odyssey are expected to be among the top-sellers. Additionally, the
top toys from 2016 are capitalizing on their success with updated
products that are expected to perform well this year, including
Moose’s Toys’ Shopkins and Spin Master Hatchimals.
- Best Dates for Deals: The
sharpest discounts are expected to occur on Black Friday, with
televisions (23.7 percent), tablets (23.6 percent), jewelry (12
percent) and appliances (17.7 percent) showing the largest price
decreases. On Thanksgiving, shoppers can expect to find the best
deals on computers (16 percent), sporting goods (11 percent),
apparel (15 percent) and video games/consoles (9.6 percent). On
Cyber Monday discounts will be highest for toys at 19.1 percent.
The Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving is predicted to offer the best
deals for Christmas décor with average discounts of 22.7 percent.
Furniture and bedding prices as well as pet products are expected
to see the steepest price cuts on Giving Tuesday with 12.8 percent
and 21.7 percent respectively. Some products will likely be out of
stock before they see major discounts. Appliances, tablets and
televisions are most likely to be out-of-stock on Thanksgiving Day,
before seeing the largest discounts on Black Friday.
- Mobile Shopping: While desktop
purchases are predicted to account for two-thirds of revenue this
holiday season, mobile is serving as a starting point for many
consumers. For the first time, web traffic on smartphones and
tablets is predicted to be higher than for desktops, at 54 percent
and 46 percent respectively.
Methodology
Adobe leverages Adobe Sensei, Adobe’s artificial intelligence
and machine learning framework, to identify retail insights from
trillions of data points that flow through Adobe Analytics, part of
Adobe Analytics Cloud in Adobe Experience Cloud. Adobe’s retail
report, the most comprehensive set of insights and predictions of
its kind in the industry, is based on an analysis of one trillion
visits to over 4,500 retail sites and 55 million SKUs. $7.50 of
every $10 spent by consumers online with the top 500 U.S. retailers
go through Adobe Experience Cloud.** Adobe Analytics measures 80
percent of online transactions at the largest 100 U.S. web
retailers.*** Companion research is based on a survey with more
than 1,100 U.S. consumers, and analysis from twelve million social
mentions between August 1, 2017 and October 11, 2017.
In 2017, Adobe built out its forecasting model for accurately
predicting and projecting actual retail spending, given major
discount days have impacted online shopping behaviors
significantly. This methodology now looks at each day as an
independent estimate, ultimately eliminating the use of constant
growth assumptions, which requires Adobe to restate total online
sales numbers for specific days in 2016. For more details, see this
accompanying blog post.
Helpful Links:
- Adobe Digital Insights 2016 Shopping
Predictions (Full Report):
https://www.slideshare.net/adobe/2017-adi-holiday-shopping-predictions-81481566
- CMO.com Article:
http://www.cmo.com/adobe-digital-insights/articles/2017/10/27/us-adi-2017-holiday-predictions.html
- Conversations Blog Post:
http://blogs.adobe.com/conversations/2017/11/changing-dynamics-in-the-retail-industry.html%20%E2%80%8E
About Adobe
Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For
more information, visit www.adobe.com.
*Based on National Retail Federation Estimates
(https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-research-and-data/holiday-spending/holiday-headquarters)
**Based on the top 100 retailers in the IR 2017 top 500
eGuide
***Internet Retailer’s 2017 Top 500 eGuide, an independent
source that measures online commerce technologies
(https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/product/top-500-database/)
© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All rights reserved. Adobe
and the Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks
of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other
countries. All other trademarks are the property of their
respective owners.
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AdobeAshley Levine, 415-832-4161aslevine@adobe.comorStefan Offermann, 408-536-4023sofferma@adobe.com
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