By Marcus Walker
The European Union, faced with forces of disintegration, is
mostly holding its ground. This year will test whether it can also
advance.
The bloc and its political establishment have had to prove their
resilience repeatedly over the past decade, in the face of
challenges ranging from financial calamity to populism. Fixing
underlying problems, however, is proving more difficult than merely
surviving.
The good news for the EU: Its economic heartland, the euro
currency zone, is finally enjoying a boom, albeit unevenly spread,
after years of struggle to shake off the financial crisis.
Pro-EU politicians also have won a string of crucial elections
that were seen as showdowns with populist insurgents.
Antiestablishment parties, especially on the nationalist far right,
won more votes than previously, but less than they were hoping for
in several countries.
And the 27 countries that want to stay in the EU have maintained
an unexpected unity in the face of the U.K.'s decision to leave.
Even many nationalist parties on the Continent have dropped talk of
EU exit after it proved unpopular.
"None of the alternatives to the EU are particularly attractive
to most Europeans," says Ivan Krastev, a Bulgarian political
scientist and author of the book "After Europe" on the EU's
challenges. "That's why the first reaction to Brexit was more
support for the EU."
Yet the political consensus that underpins today's European
order has been fraying over time. Voters are steadily abandoning
traditional center-left and center-right parties, often perceived
as remote and technocratic. Swaths of European society are worried
about losing economic security or cultural identity in the face of
globalization, immigration and generally rapid change.
Surveys show the EU and the euro are often seen as a mixed
blessing, even though public support for leaving them is generally
low. And the eurozone's design flaws, which contributed to its long
crisis, have only been partially fixed -- including a weak safety
net for crisis-hit banks and fiscal rules that can exaggerate booms
and busts.
The biggest risk this year could be that the cyclical economic
upturn reduces the pressure on EU leaders to shore up Europeans'
trust in the economic and political order that the Continent has
sought to build since the end of the Cold War. And if their trust
isn't bolstered, the Continent could eventually see a resurgent
populist challenge that tests the EU's survival more seriously.
Europe's populist movements are ideologically eclectic. But most
are a backlash against one or more aspects of the "integration
consensus," a drive for continual blending of Europe's states,
economies and peoples, under EU rules that promote cross-border
policy-making, business and migration, says Cas Mudde, a Dutch
political scientist who teaches at the University of Georgia.
"Above all, the backlashes are directed against individual
parties" that have overseen this long-term integration, Mr. Mudde
says. "And although support has waned for centrist parties and the
general status quo, most of these voters haven't attached
themselves strongly to something else."
Watching the results
Two more elections this spring, in Italy and Hungary, will again
gauge the strength of rebels proffering alternatives to the EU's
political mainstream. In Italy, the upstart 5 Star Movement, with
its fierce critique of professional incumbents, is expected to
become the biggest single party in Parliament, with roughly a
quarter of all votes. But its rejection of coalitions with
established politicians means Italy's government is likely to
remain an unstable patchwork of old parties.
The anti-immigration Northern League is also expected to do
well, and like the 5 Star Movement has sometimes called for a
referendum on Italy's membership of the euro. The political and
legal hurdles to such a referendum are high, however. Surveys
suggest only a minority would vote to go back to the lira. But the
popular majority in favor of the euro is weaker than in most other
countries, thanks to Italy's continuing economic travails.
Italy's economy is growing again but more weakly than elsewhere
in Europe. Output remains far lower than a decade ago, when the
financial crisis began. Sagging productivity has long held back
Italy's economy, while corruption and paralysis have discredited
its political class. Few observers believe the elections will lead
to a strong government that can make deep changes to the
country.
Hungarians are expected to re-elect the nationalist Fidesz party
of Premier Viktor Orban, who has declared he wants to build an
"illiberal state" that diverges from the Western model of liberal
democracy based on checks and balances. Mr. Orban's government has
vowed to veto EU actions against Poland, whose ruling nationalist
party is asserting control over the judiciary, media and other
institutions, leading the EU and the U.S. to voice concern about a
weakening of Polish democracy.
Hungary and Poland want to stay in the EU, which they believe
serves their economic self-interest and national security. But both
governments have discovered the value of attacking the EU for being
overbearing. Their growing challenge to EU norms on how independent
institutions in a democracy should be means their tensions with the
bloc's establishment are likely to fester.
Moving West
Such nationalist movements may have won elections only in the
EU's eastern members so far, but they're a growing opposition force
in Western Europe, too.
That helps explain why attempts to reform the EU itself by
deepening integration are struggling to get off the ground. Among
key EU national leaders, only French President Emmanuel Macron is
displaying strong conviction that deeper EU integration is the
answer to popular disillusion. Others including German Chancellor
Angela Merkel are more cautious, especially about turning the
eurozone into a fiscal union with its own budget, taxes and bonds,
as Mr. Macron has suggested.
The fact that Germany starts 2018 with only a caretaker
government is another brake on talks about further integration. Ms.
Merkel has been unable to form a governing coalition since
Germany's inconclusive elections in September. Her potential
coalition partner Martin Schulz, head of the center-left Social
Democrats, recently called for a "United States of Europe" by 2025.
But the Social Democrats have proved reluctant in practice to fight
against Ms. Merkel's policies in Europe, knowing that spending more
German taxpayer money on other eurozone economies isn't
popular.
Germany and France are aiming for some progress this year on
bolstering eurozone institutions, as well as improving cooperation
on security and migration. Most policy makers say changes will be
incremental.
"The EU is not beating its enemies but exhausting them," says
Mr. Krastev.
Mr. Walker is a senior European correspondent for The Wall
Street Journal. Email marcus.walker@wsj.com.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 22, 2018 15:30 ET (20:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.