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Bitcoin may be on the verge of a major upward move, according to a new analysis from JPMorgan. The global investment bank says the world’s largest cryptocurrency is increasingly behaving like gold—a trend that could propel BTC toward the $170,000 mark over the next several months.
Bitcoin’s Momentum Strengthens Despite Market Uncertainty
In a recent note to clients, a team of JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou explained that their volatility-adjusted model—which compares bitcoin’s price behavior to gold—continues to point toward a “theoretical fair value” near $170K. This signals meaningful upside potential within a 6–12 month timeframe.
According to the bank, several factors have weighed on crypto sentiment in recent weeks, including:
- Heightened risk aversion among global investors
- Evolving expectations regarding 2026 interest rate policy
- Uncertainty surrounding Strategy’s (Nasdaq: MSTR) future bitcoin management
Yet despite these pressures, JPMorgan believes market conditions are still aligning in Bitcoin’s favor.
Concerns About Strategy’s Holdings May Be Overstated
The report addressed market fears that Strategy could reduce its massive bitcoin position if the premium on its stock declines further. However, CEO Phong Le recently clarified that any decision to sell would depend on the company’s mNAV slipping below 1—a condition that has not yet been met.
Moreover, JPMorgan highlighted Strategy’s recent accumulation of about $1.4 billion in cash, which reduces the chance of forced BTC sales and helps stabilize market expectations.
Key MSCI Review Could Influence Short-Term Market Direction
Another major event the bank is watching is the upcoming January 15 MSCI index review, which may remove companies heavily exposed to digital assets from major indexes. Such a move could temporarily pressure crypto markets, while a favorable decision might support a fresh BTC recovery.
Bitcoin’s “Digital Gold” Thesis Gains Strength
As of now, bitcoin trades around $89,712, but JPMorgan notes that BTC continues to behave like gold during periods of macro stress—drawing investors seeking alternative stores of value when traditional markets become unstable.
This pattern, the bank says, reinforces long-standing narratives around Bitcoin:
- Finite supply
- Growing institutional adoption
- Maturing market infrastructure
Pro-crypto analysts argue that these structural strengths make BTC increasingly resilient, even in the face of short-term volatility.
A Potential Path Toward New Highs
While risks remain—from index reshuffles to potential corporate selling—JPMorgan’s outlook suggests that Bitcoin may still be gearing up for a renewed bullish phase. If gold-like dynamics persist and market headwinds ease, BTC could find the momentum needed to revisit and potentially surpass previous all-time highs.
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