Mester Says Fed Should Raise Rates in 2018 at Pace Similar to 2017 -- Update
February 13 2018 - 9:55AM
Dow Jones News
By Michael S. Derby
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said
Tuesday the U.S. central bank should press forward with
interest-rate increases this year, while adding the recent wave of
volatility in financial markets hasn't derailed a solid economic
outlook.
"If economic conditions evolve as expected, we'll need to make
some further increases in interest rates this year and next year,
at a pace similar to last year's," Ms. Mester said in a speech in
Dayton, Ohio. "This gradual approach is the best strategy for
sustaining the expansion and balancing the risks to our
dual-mandate goals."
Ms. Mester is a voting member of the interest-rate setting
Federal Open Market Committee this year. The Fed raised rates three
times last year, moving its overnight target rate to a range of
between 1.25% and 1.50%. It has penciled in around three increases
for the current year. In recent comments Ms. Mester has expressed
that she shares that outlook but may favor a slightly more
aggressive course of rate increases.
Ms. Mester didn't comment on the timing of the next rate rises
in her prepared remarks. Many in financial markets are eyeing the
Fed's March meeting as the next time to act. She told reporters
after her speech that the timing of the next rate rise "is less
important to me. It's really about the path and outlook."
A "gradual upward path of interest rates will help balance the
risks and prolong the expansion so that our longer-run goals of
price stability and maximum employment are met and maintained," Ms.
Mester said. Slow and steady rate increase will allow the Fed to
respond to unexpected developments, allow inflation to rise while
mitigating the chance asset markets will destabilize, and give the
Fed more room to respond to future economic troubles when they
arise.
The market's recent woes haven't affected Ms. Mester's outlook.
"Trading has been relatively orderly, markets have remained
generally liquid, and there hasn't been a pullback in credit," she
said.
"While a deeper and more persistent drop in equity markets could
dash confidence and lead to a pullback in risk-taking and spending,
the movements we have seen are far away from this scenario," Ms.
Mester said. "I expect the economy will work through this episode
of market turbulence and I have not changed my outlook."
Ms. Mester also said after her speech the rise in long-term bond
yields seen recently wasn't concerning. "Long bonds are going up
because the economy is in a good place...I think that's not a
negative," he said.
Ms. Mester said in her speech that the economy is "sound" and
2018 looks "good" with growth of around 2.5%. The official reckons
the recently passed tax bill will add about a quarter to a half
percentage point to growth over the next couple of years, with the
risk growth could be even stronger.
Both the monetary policy and financial conditions are
"accommodative," and "the changes in tax policy will also have a
positive effect on growth this year and next."
On the hiring front, Ms. Mester said "labor markets have been
strong, and I expect that strength to continue," with what's now a
4.1% jobless rate falling below 4% this year.
Ms. Mester also expressed optimism that inflation will continue
to mount, saying, "I expect it to gradually move up to our goal of
2% over the next one to two years."
Rob Modic in Dayton, Ohio contributed to this report.
Write to Michael S. Derby at michael.derby@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 13, 2018 10:40 ET (15:40 GMT)
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