CURRENCIES: Trade Retaliation Worries Push Japan's Yen Higher, As Dollar Dips
June 25 2018 - 8:45AM
Dow Jones News
By Anneken Tappe and Mike Bird
Turkey's lira falls after Erdogan win
Trade-war worries remained front and center on Monday, following
President Donald Trump's latest tariff salvos against some of its
largest global partners. In response, traditional haven currencies
like Japan's yen strengthened.
Currencies considered safe in times of global uncertainty have
outperformed due to their high liquidity versus alternatives
perceived as riskier. The U.S. dollar at times also functions as a
haven, though it seemingly didn't on Monday, when the buck added on
from a 0.3% loss last week. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index was last down
0.1% at 94.394.
On Sunday, President Trump said that the U.S. would meet any
duties from trade partners with additional levies. Last week, the
European Union imposed reciprocal tariffs on U.S.-made goods.
(https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1010978975391322112)
The yen was up 0.3% against the greenback on Monday, with one
dollar buying Yen109.65.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar slipped 0.3% to $0.7419. The
Aussie is seen as a proxy for China, which is at the center of the
U.S.-led trade spat, due Australia's deep trade ties with
Beijing.
The buck also gained against China's yuan, buying 6.5338 onshore
and 6.5463 offshore , up 0.4% and 0.6% respectively.
Read:Here's why a trade-war selloff won't spark intervention in
China's yuan
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-no-trade-war-panic-in-chinas-yuan-2018-06-19)
The Wall Street Journal reported that the PBOC on Sunday
indicated that it would reduce the amount of reserve banks are
required to keep with the central bank, freeing up more than $100
billion--signaling a loosen of its policies which could weigh on
its monetary unit. That said, the yuan has maintained its strength
against the buck compared against the performance of other major
currencies against greenback.
Elsewhere, Turkey's lira dropped against the dollar and the euro
in the wake of a victory for incumbent President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan in Sunday's presidential and parliamentary elections.
Erdogan, who was seen as the unfavorable candidate for markets,
receiving 52.5% of the vote
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/turkeys-erdogan-wins-sweeping-presidential-victory-extends-grip-on-power-2018-06-24),
enough to avoid a second runoff election. Investors are concerned
about Turkey's high double digit inflation, its reliance on foreign
and particularly dollar-denominated funding, as well as the
independence of its central bank under Erdogan's next
administration.
One dollar last bought 4.6948 lira, up from 4.5373 earlier
Monday, while the euro bought 5.4859, up versus 5.2812 earlier in
the session.
Analyst at UniCredit in a Monday research note wrote "in terms
of our preview of the election, the current result coincides with
the bearish market scenario as it assumes that macroeconomic
policymaking will turn poor once again as the president puts
pressure on both the government and the central bank to reflate the
economy further."
Researchers there attributed earlier gains to unwinding of
investors who had placed bearish bets that the lira would weaken
following the vote: "Accordingly, beyond the short-covering rally
based on reduced uncertainty, the lira is likely to be vulnerable
if our assumption that the current 'checks and balances' on policy
will be eroded further is correct," referencing Erdogan's intension
to control the country's central bank and monetary policy
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-turkeys-currency-woes-could-undermine-erdogans-re-election-bid-2018-05-24).
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2018 09:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
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