RickNagra
4 hours ago
Oh wow. Did you just type that all by yourself ? Must have been a really good drink. Pass it around. Give us a sip. I usually just have a Stella once in a while. I have to go to work 6 am Saturday and do a double shift. Weekends are super busy in the food and restaurant industry. However with my future Fannie winnings I plan to become my own boss. After all I have to provide for my future offsprings with Gaby.
I don't trust the government and I sure in the hell don't trust Wall Street. EVERYBODY wants a piece and these two sets of criminals have had their share through what's been taken already, and the
2008 Wall Street bailout. Additionally, Wall Street seems to have walked away unscathed, blameless, from the 2008 crisis, as innocent as altar boys. Both of these serial criminals control the media who have done NOTHING to expose said thievery, while they play ignorant of all things historically accurate and rule of law worthy - especially regarding the lawful conduct of conservatorships and the spirit of the takings clause of the U.S. Constitution.
Beware of what ANYONE calls "privatization" it WILL likely be a red herring designed to put the mortgage market in the hands of "big (investment) bank" like institutions. Sure investors will swarm like bees to the honey pot, but trust me, Wall Street alchemy will bake a new dung pile promising new new mortgage products which will be nothing more than a repackaging of their miserably failed PLMBS wrapped in a renamed CDO, hedged by the same CDS (credit default swaps) they used to hide shitty mortgages, magnify notional values beyond the ability of any and all governments and treasuries to cover, offering thier pull-out method pseudo protection and passing them off as securities to the uninitiated. Start the countdown for round two of the destruction. If they start to throw around big numbers investors are willing to pay the GOVERNMENT to "privatize" the twins you can bet the above is where they are headed. AND IT WILL COME at the expense of current shareholders and the future safety of our securites markets.
The ONLY person related to the Trump camp right now I POTENTIALLY trust to speak up for current (common) shareholders is Ackman. Ackman is NOT the typical Wall Streeter in the sense I'm speaking of here. I've heard him in many interviews and podcasts. I trust he DOES put his shareholders first. The 100 mil or so commons is NOT held by Ackman, but the Pershing Square Fund - they belong to his shareholders. He faced a bankruptcy of his own before and battled back at severe personal cost to get back on top and earn great returns for his shareholdersm and often speaks about the value of his shareholders. Paulson is a wild card - as we all know he owns preferred and I have ZERO doubt he will go to the mat for preferreds - which COULD POTENTIALLY mean less than the best for commons. Any new treasury secretary WILL face tremendous pressure from Wall Street - EVERYONE should understand that is a given. Mnuchin had no intention of letting all of the above out of the bag, he ran IndyMac, which received a massive bailout in 2008 (MORTGAGE SECURITY RELATED), he was a Goldman Sach alum, his father was a former Goldman executive - Hank Paulson had to be in his ear Mnuchin's ear. We all know who took the twins down during the crisis.
If the Trump admin, with its majority in both houses, could secure some kind of congressional commitment to keep the Twins for their intended mortage markets purpose and keep democrats and other agencies from fucking around with that (immigrant giveaways, low-income-community DEI initiatives to those who CANNOT earn what's required, or giveaways beyond borrowers means), then the best of all worlds - especially for the stability and safety of the mortgage market, the integrity of conservatorship law, and shareholder rights law - they should do the following:
- reinstate the proper business risk adjusted captial requirement
- eliminate the net worth sweep
- return previous net worth sweep funds
- consider the senior preferred shares, whatever you call that screwy loan commitment, and liquidation preference repaid
- IF ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY (so Wall Street doesn't destroy everything) allow for some capital raise to augment the twins already retained capital so they can be released over the coming year or so
With the Twins' guarantee fee business base, no longer retaining the large massive portfolios, and the proper adjustments above, the U.S. can retain some regulatory oversight while protecting the safety and soundness of a legitimate mortgage market, conservatorship law would NOT be turned on its head, and neither would the securities markets and shareholder rights laws be turned on thier heads. Trust me, the (moral) hazards of screwing with these three principles will wreak havoc long into the future and deep in the markets' psyche, longer than anyone can see now, and much deeper into the market psyche than any behavioral economist has ever dared venture.
NeoSunTzu
6 hours ago
I don't trust the government and I sure in the hell don't trust Wall Street. EVERYBODY wants a piece and these two sets of criminals have had their share through what's been taken already, and the
2008 Wall Street bailout. Additionally, Wall Street seems to have walked away unscathed, blameless, from the 2008 crisis, as innocent as altar boys. Both of these serial criminals control the media who have done NOTHING to expose said thievery, while they play ignorant of all things historically accurate and rule of law worthy - especially regarding the lawful conduct of conservatorships and the spirit of the takings clause of the U.S. Constitution.
Beware of what ANYONE calls "privatization" it WILL likely be a red herring designed to put the mortgage market in the hands of "big (investment) bank" like institutions. Sure investors will swarm like bees to the honey pot, but trust me, Wall Street alchemy will bake a new dung pile promising new new mortgage products which will be nothing more than a repackaging of their miserably failed PLMBS wrapped in a renamed CDO, hedged by the same CDS (credit default swaps) they used to hide shitty mortgages, magnify notional values beyond the ability of any and all governments and treasuries to cover, offering thier pull-out method pseudo protection and passing them off as securities to the uninitiated. Start the countdown for round two of the destruction. If they start to throw around big numbers investors are willing to pay the GOVERNMENT to "privatize" the twins you can bet the above is where they are headed. AND IT WILL COME at the expense of current shareholders and the future safety of our securites markets.
The ONLY person related to the Trump camp right now I POTENTIALLY trust to speak up for current (common) shareholders is Ackman. Ackman is NOT the typical Wall Streeter in the sense I'm speaking of here. I've heard him in many interviews and podcasts. I trust he DOES put his shareholders first. The 100 mil or so commons is NOT held by Ackman, but the Pershing Square Fund - they belong to his shareholders. He faced a bankruptcy of his own before and battled back at severe personal cost to get back on top and earn great returns for his shareholdersm and often speaks about the value of his shareholders. Paulson is a wild card - as we all know he owns preferred and I have ZERO doubt he will go to the mat for preferreds - which COULD POTENTIALLY mean less than the best for commons. Any new treasury secretary WILL face tremendous pressure from Wall Street - EVERYONE should understand that is a given. Mnuchin had no intention of letting all of the above out of the bag, he ran IndyMac, which received a massive bailout in 2008 (MORTGAGE SECURITY RELATED), he was a Goldman Sach alum, his father was a former Goldman executive - Hank Paulson had to be in his ear Mnuchin's ear. We all know who took the twins down during the crisis.
If the Trump admin, with its majority in both houses, could secure some kind of congressional commitment to keep the Twins for their intended mortage markets purpose and keep democrats and other agencies from fucking around with that (immigrant giveaways, low-income-community DEI initiatives to those who CANNOT earn what's required, or giveaways beyond borrowers means), then the best of all worlds - especially for the stability and safety of the mortgage market, the integrity of conservatorship law, and shareholder rights law - they should do the following:
- reinstate the proper business risk adjusted captial requirement
- eliminate the net worth sweep
- return previous net worth sweep funds
- consider the senior preferred shares, whatever you call that screwy loan commitment, and liquidation preference repaid
- IF ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY (so Wall Street doesn't destroy everything) allow for some capital raise to augment the twins already retained capital so they can be released over the coming year or so
With the Twins' guarantee fee business base, no longer retaining the large massive portfolios, and the proper adjustments above, the U.S. can retain some regulatory oversight while protecting the safety and soundness of a legitimate mortgage market, conservatorship law would NOT be turned on its head, and neither would the securities markets and shareholder rights laws be turned on thier heads. Trust me, the (moral) hazards of screwing with these three principles will wreak havoc long into the future and deep in the markets' psyche, longer than anyone can see now, and much deeper into the market psyche than any behavioral economist has ever dared venture.
navycmdr
9 hours ago
A big housing question at the heart of the Treasury fight
By SAM SUTTON 11/21/2024
-Trump allies are urging the president-elect to move ahead with plans for their release.
Trump has said he’d like to free both companies from conservatorship.
Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Congress that there were scenarios in which they could be released even before raising the necessary capital.
And some have speculated that Trump might do just that,
QUICK FIX
There has been a lot of hand-wringing over the last two weeks about whether Donald Trump’s (eventual) pick for Treasury will fully align with his hard-line vision on global trade. Let’s widen the aperture to talk about something that’s literally closer to home: the housing market.
More than 15 years after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed in a federal conservatorship at the height of the financial crisis, Trump allies are urging the president-elect to move ahead with plans for their release. Trump has said he’d like to free both companies from conservatorship. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Congress that there were scenarios in which they could be released even before raising the necessary capital. And some have speculated that Trump might do just that, potentially side-stepping Congress to unlock billions of dollars for investors, who have continued to purchase shares in the financial behemoths, which function as a government-supported beating heart for the mortgage-backed securities market.
But Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and George W. Bush aide who is now a top contender for Treasury, isn’t sure privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be worth the fight.
“Congress, I think, keeps telling us, Democrats and Republicans, presidents of both parties, that these are effectively backed by the United States government,” Warsh said at a conference hosted by the Atlanta Fed in May.
He went on: “Let’s just own that. I don’t think it’s worth the fight,” he added. “This muddled middle with a, ‘Yeah, they’re private until something bad happens, and then what we’re going to do in our wisdom is socialize the losses and let the profits be privatized in good times.’ This strikes me as the worst way for an American economy that needs durable, sustainable growth and credibility of the world to proceed from here on out.”
That view is unlikely to resonate with some of Trump’s most vocal — and wealthy — supporters on Wall Street.
Bill Ackman, the billionaire founder of the hedge fund Pershing Square and Trump booster, has held sizable positions in both companies for years in the hopes that they would eventually be released from government control. Another hedge fund billionaire and erstwhile Treasury candidate, John Paulson, also holds formidable stakes in the government-sponsored enterprises (Paulson cited his “complex financial obligations” when he withdrew his name from Treasury consideration). Other investors have piled in since Trump was reelected; shares of both Fannie and Freddie surged after Election Day.
In that sense, Warsh’s comments reflect “an inherently very un-Republican idea,” said one investor, who was granted anonymity to speak frankly about the views of potential Trump Cabinet members. The GSEs have been amassing necessary capital for years and, while they remain critical to markets, privatizing them would put them in a similar category as any “private” systemically important financial institution. “The whole idea of the kind of ethos of the Republican Party is limited government involvement,” they added
But even if Trump or his eventual Treasury secretary move ahead with ending Fannie and Freddie’s conservatorship, they’ll still face an uphill climb. Elevated mortgage rates have scrambled the housing market and releasing the GSEs could send them even higher. And, as Katy O’Donnell reported, the president-elect would likely face resistance from lawmakers if he took that step without congressional approval.
"That would be a huge mistake,” said Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, a senior Democrat on the Banking Committee.
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