Fed's Evans: U.S. Economy 'Firing On All Cylinders'
September 14 2018 - 8:30AM
Dow Jones News
By Michael S. Derby
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said
Friday he expects the U.S. central bank to press forward with rate
rises amid a bright economic outlook.
"The U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, with strong
growth, low unemployment, and inflation approaching our 2 %
symmetric target on a sustained basis," Mr. Evans said in the text
of speech prepared for delivery in Ft. Wayne, Ind. "I expect this
good performance to continue over the next few years."
Mr. Evans said "given the strong growth fundamentals and
positive inflation outlook, it is time for the Fed to return to the
conventional monetary policymaking of yesteryear." For him, that
means policy "will will rely on gradual adjustments in interest
rates."
Mr. Evans again noted that monetary policy will likely have to
go toward a stance that's somewhat restrictive of growth, but he
said that's "quite normal" given how the economy is and will likely
perform.
Mr. Evans, who is not currently a voting member of the
interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, did not
discuss the timing of action. The Fed meets later this month in a
gathering that's almost certain to result in an increase to the
current fed funds rate target, which now stands between 1.75% and
2%. There's a good chance the Fed will raise again after that this
year, and raise several more times next year.
Mr. Evans said in his speech he expects the economy to grow by
around 3% this year and to slow back to around 2% over 2019 and
2020 as the stimulative impact of the recent tax cuts wears off. He
sees what's current a 3.9% jobless rate ebbing to around 3.5% by
the end of 2020.
Mr. Evans said inflation is likely to edge up over the Fed's 2%
inflation target. But he added, "I am more comfortable with the
inflation outlook today than I have been for the past several
years."
The official sees the strong job market contributing to higher
inflation.
"While wage increases have been disappointingly low, more and
more of my business contacts -- including those in Indiana -- say
they are willing to increase compensation to hire or keep qualified
workers," Mr. Evans said. "So I expect tighter labor markets to
lead to higher wage growth before too long," he said.
Write to Michael S. Derby at
michael.derby@wsj.com<mailto:michael.derby@wsj.com>
Write to Michael S. Derby at michael.derby@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 14, 2018 09:15 ET (13:15 GMT)
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