BEIJING, May 12, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- 5G Momentum
Builds in the global market
The global 5G rollout is entering the third year. In the leading
markets, such as South Korea and
China, 5G subscribers and traffic
volume have been growing significantly. By the end of March 2021, 5G accounted for 20.4% of mobile
subscriptions in South Korea and
these users generated 50.3% of cellular data traffic. The average
data usage of 5G subscribers was 26.66 GB in March that is about
2.9x 4G levels in the same period. In China, the number of 5G tariff plan
subscribers has reached 392 million by the end of March. The
adoption of 5G service boosts the data consumption. The average
data usage of Chinese mobile subscribers increased by 32% in
2020.
5G momentum also builds outside of the two leading countries.
The adoption of 5G service has accelerated with a combination of
greater availability of affordable 5G smartphones and the
'validation' for many consumers following the iPhone 12 series
launch. According to Strategy Analytics' Device Technologies report
"Vendor Share: Global Handset Market by Technology : Q4 2020", 128
million 5G phones were sold globally in Q4 2020. In an increasing
number of developed markets, we have seen 5G grows to 4-8% of the
subscriptions. Strategy Analytics estimates that subscriptions used
on 5G networks increased from 2.1% of the global total at the end
of September 2020 to 3.0% by the end
of December 2020.
A consistent mobile broadband experience increasingly
important for operator performance
While 5G adoption grows, the global mobile data price continues
declining. Mobile data revenue fell below US$1 per GByte for the first time in Q4 2020,
according to Strategy Analytics' Wireless Operator Performance
Benchmarking Q4 2020. The report also indicates the revenue per
GByte has fallen 88% over the last five years. This price erosion
raises a critical question for operators about how to stimulate
additional monthly spend by customers. The successes of
South Korea and Finland may be the answer to the question.
South Korean operators have bundled various contents,
particularly the iconic 5G applications such as VR, AR, or cloud
gaming, into their 5G service plans to encourage customers to
upgrade their tariff plans. In Finland, the model of speed-based price tiers
on unlimited plans has been quite a success. In terms of the growth
of mobile service revenue and ARPU, the operators in South Korea and Finland have outperformed most of their
counterparts in other markets where it is much more common to see
pricing tiered by data volume rather than content or network
experience. A more detailed analysis of this trend is provided in
our recent report Mobile Data Revenue per Gigabyte Falls Below
US$1 as 5G Ramps Up.
Either the content bundling strategy or the speed-based pricing
model relies on a consistent network experience. Network experience
is also linked to subscriber churn, according to the network tests
of Opensignal.
Opensignal analysed the mobile experience of the smartphone
users in Germany and Singapore, who changed their mobile network
service provider in the second half of 2020, a.k.a. Leavers. The
results clearly indicate that the Leavers had a worse mobile
experience before they switched than the typical user experience
observed on their original network provider.
Therefore, the mobile network experience is becoming more and
more important to mobile operator's competitiveness in the 5G era.
Operators must continuously improve the network performance to
ensure a competitive network experience.
Massive MIMO at the core of 5G radio access network
The massive number of antennas helps focus energy and enables
beamforming. The beamforming technology can focus a wireless signal
in a specific direction to form beams towards users. The
beamforming can significantly increase data rates and capacity for
all users. Massive MIMO can also improve network coverage to allow
users to enjoy a more consistent experience across the network,
even at the cell edge. Thus, massive MIMO is a cornerstone of 5G
network to provide a good user experience. All major infrastructure
vendors invest heavily in the development of massive MIMO products.
The major vendors announced new massive MIMO products recently. But
compared to the hardware upgrade, the innovation on massive MIMO
algorithms could be more attractive to operators.
Massive MIMO systems require a combination of antenna expansion
and complex algorithms. Algorithms are actually at the heart of
massive MIMO system design and optimization. Various algorithms
will be required to implement massive MIMO functions, such as:
- Channel estimation: the beamforming and adaptive modulation and
coding of massive MIMO system rely on the knowledge of channel
parameters. The base station can estimate the parameters according
to the uplink radio signal and/or the feedback information from the
user equipment.
- Beamforming: according to the result of channel estimation, the
base station will decide the parameters of the beams, e.g. the
horizontal and vertical directions and the width of the beams.
- Adaptive modulation and coding: base station will also decide
the modulation scheme and the coding rate, according to the
instantaneous quality of the radio link to improve the efficiency
of radio transmission.
At the recent Huawei Global Analyst Summit, Huawei mention the
Adaptive High Resolution (AHR) algorithms to improve massive MIMO
performance in all three areas above. The AHR includes High
Accuracy Channel Estimation, which could improve the beamforming
accuracy and reduce the system interference, UE/Channel/Service
Adaptive algorithms, which greatly improve user experience by the
modulation scheme adaption and UEs-networks adaption, and High
Resolution Beam, which increases the network capacity by improving
the multi-user pairing capability. According to Huawei, the
algorithms can improve the average user experienced data rate by
35% and improve the cell capacity by 50%.
The AHR algorithms can be deployed easily, without the need for
hardware change and site visit. Huawei stated that many 5G base
stations in live networks have been deployed with the advanced
algorithms. In January 2021, Ookla
performed the test on the iPhone 12 5G speed in 15 major cities
across the globe. The test results show that Seoul had the fastest median speed over 5G,
and in Seoul, LG U+ had the
fastest median download speed over 5G on the iPhone 12, although LG
U+'s 5G spectrum bandwidth is narrower than its competitors, i.e.
80MHz vs. 100MHz. As a major network equipment supplier of LG U+,
the result of the test demonstrates the performance gain of the AHR
algorithms.
Preparing for traffic growth and monetization opportunities
Since Q4 2020, we have seen more positive signs in the 5G
consumer market. In Germany, the
biggest smartphone market in Western
Europe, a 5G Phone became the quarterly top-selling model
for the first time ever. Our latest consumer survey in the US
indicates that 75% of flagship buyers expect to buy a 5G smartphone
next. In China, the 5G mobile
phone shipment reached 69.8 million in Q1 2021, representing 71.3%
of the total shipment. It is the first time ever that the ratio
exceeds 70%.
The increasing adoption of 5G phone and 5G service plan will
boost the data usage. Meanwhile, mobile operators need to answer
the question how to stimulate additional monthly spend by
customers. The excellent performance of the 5G network is the
foundation of satisfying the traffic demand and developing new
business models. Operators must continuously improve their 5G
networks. Advanced massive MIMO algorithms could be a good starting
point for 5G network enhancement.
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SOURCE Strategy Analytics