UK/Euro Financial Market Daily Morning Briefing 09-11-2007

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London shares up early on; M&A and specific newsflow provides fillip

LONDON - Leading shares were firmer early on helped by a recovery on Wall Street which saw earlier losses pared, with positive newsflow lifting BG Group and Liberty International amid some limited bargain hunting among financials.
   
By 9.00 am, the FTSE 100 was up 45.9 at 6,426.5, with the broader FTSE 250 up 87.6 points at 11,119.40. Volume was modest with 243 mln shares changing hands in 72,322 deals.
   
Last night the Dow closed well above intra-day lows. Having shed more than 200 points at its worst, the blue chip index ended the day down 33.73 points or 0.25 pct at 13,266.29.
   
Investors had been unnerved by cautious comments by Fed Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke but financials rallied in late trade. But the technology-heavy Nasdaq slumped 52.76 points or 1.92 pct to 2,696.00 after disappointing numbers from Cisco after Wednesday's close.
   
Over in Asia, the Nikkei 225 closed down 188.15 points at 15,583.42, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng finished up 23.19 at 28,783.41. Among early movers, BG Group rose 33 to 1022, continuing yesterday's 10 pct surge after extremely positive test results from the Brazilian Tupi prospect operated by Brazilian state-owned energy group Petroleo Brasileiro in which it holds a 25 pct stake.

In light of the results -- which could yield 5-8 bln barrels of recoverable oil -- Credit Suisse raised its rating to 'outperform' and its price target to 1,100 pence, while Deutsche Bank reiterated its 'buy' rating and upped its target to 1,090 pence.

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Elsewhere, British Energy rallied 20 to 532 following recent weakness brought on by the closure of nuclear reactors due to corrosion and helped by positive broker comment from Goldman Sachs.
   
Liberty International added 47 to 1537 on news that it is planning to demerge its Trillium outsourcing business into a separate company worth about 1 bln stg.
 
The commercial property group's board is due to meet next week to agree  formally to the demerger, according to a report in today's Times. Rio Tinto and BHP were stronger following yesterday's take over news in which BHP approached its counterpart in a 3 for 1 share offer.
  
Analysts do not expect BHP to go hostile despite Rio rejecting its initial offer and think it is more likely to raise its share offer to the region of 3.5-for-1. Rio shares were up a further 220 at 5517 after rising over 1100 pence yesterday, with BHP up 63 at 1719.
   
And Punch Taverns fizzed 10 higher to 939 after Deutsche Bank raised its rating to 'buy' from 'hold' after suggesting the pub operator had addressed issues it had regarding under-investment. Banks also managed to recover a little of their polish amid some bargain hunting on the view the sector is oversold in the current credit crisis.
   

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Barclays ticked 1 better to 486, Lloyds TSB was up 4 to 487 and Alliance & Leicester rallied 29 to 700. Turning to the early fallers, BT Group eased 3-3/4 to 298 after UBS trimmed its target to 285 pence from 295 following yesterday's interims.
   
Elsewhere, Friends Provident slipped 2.7 to 157.5 after UBS trimmed its target to 175 pence from 210 after resuming coverage in the pension group with a 'neutral' rating.
   
Northern Rock was again the main casualty, off 3.6 at 146.4 amid a lack of any positive newsflow to come out of the beleaguered lender which is in turn fuelling speculation about a possible outcome to the saga.
   
Among midcaps, Misys slipped 12 to 225 after UBS downgraded to software group to 'sell' from 'neutral' and cut its target to 220 pence. On the economic front today, Britain's visible trade balance is expected to
narrow slightly to 6.8 bln stg in September, while the non-EU trade balance is anticipated to be similar to the previous month's deficit of 3.9 bln stg.

UK Diary of Events

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US Summary

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FRANKFURT - German shares TFN market data

DAX - up 69.36 points, or 0.87 pct, at 7,887.83 MDAX - up 82.91 points, or 0.81 pct, at 10,284.34 TecDAX - up 13.66 points, or 1.33 pct, at 1,044.57 DAX futures - up 14.50 points, or 0.18 pct, at 7,925.00

Major Decliners:
Daimler, down 1.47 eur, or 1.99 pct, at 72.52 Bayer, down 1.18, or 2.08 pct, at 55.65 Volkswagen, down 3.14 eur, or 1.70 pct, at 181.80 Hypo Real Estate, down 0.57 eur, or 1.54 pct, at 36.43 Infineon, down 0.19 eur, or 2.04 pct, at 9.14
   
Major Advancers:
Infineon, up 0.36 eur, or 3.98 pct, at 9.40, which traders attributed to a rebound from recent losses saying the disappointing fourth-quarter figures released by its US memory chip unit Qimonda AG were largely being overlooked by the market.
   
Allianz, up 5.12 eur, or 3.63 pct, at 146.47, after the insurance giant released strong third-quarter figures that stifled rumours of a possible profit warning and showed the company was able to weather the difficult market conditions well.
   
Metro, up 2.08 eur, or 3.40 pct, at 63.32,  after speculation heated up that the retail giant is preparing to sell its Extra supermarket chain and may be in 'advanced talks' with interested parties.
   
Continental, up 2.94 eur, or 3.02 pct, at 100.44, after its shares were initiated with a 'outperform' rating and a 135 eur target at Credit Suisse.
   
Siemens, up 2.29 eur, or 2.22 pct, at 105.31, on the back of yesterday's full-year figures which showed a net loss of 74 mln eur mainly due to a 1 bln eur tax expense related to the sale of its VDO unit to Continental AG, but more importantly all nine segments reached their margin target ranges in the fourth
quarter.

Major Decliners:
Volkswagen, down 1.08 eur, or 0.59 pct, at 181.45 SAP, down 0.19 eur, or 0.53 pct, at 35.77
Bayer, down 0.28 eur, or 0.50 pct, at 55.47 RWE, down 0.34 eur, or 0.36pct at 93.22 EON, down 0.46 eur, or 0.34 pct, at 134.07
   
Other Stocks in Focus
Deutsche Post, up 0.36 eur, or 1.71 pct, at 21.37, after JP Morgan raised its stance on Germany's largest retail bank to 'neutral' from 'underweight' and raised its target to 55.90 eur per share from 55.70 on the back of yesterday's third-quarter results
 
Adidas, up 0.87 eur, or 1.83 pct, at 48.54, continuing yesterday's gains on the sporting equipment manufacturer's strong fourth-quarter figures MDA-listed Arcandor, up 0.44 eur, or 2.27 pct, at 19.82, after the retailer said it is in 'advanced exclusive talks' to sell parts of its mail-order unit neckermann.de to Sun Capital Partners Inc and has already signed a letter of intent to that effect.

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Milan shares TFN market data at 9.50 am
 
Main indices

Mibtel at 29,973, down 0.12 pct S&P/Mib at 38,529, down 0.04 pct

Main S&P/Mib losers

BMPS down 10.90 pct at 3.72 after yesterday's announcement that it would buy Banca Antonveneta from Banco Santander for 9 bln eur. According to analysts, the deal is expensive, triggering a series of target  cuts and downgrades of the stock
   
Seat Pagine Gialle down 1.39 pct at 0.376 as CA Cheuvreux downgraded the stock from 'selected list' to 'underperform' while cutting the target from 0.55 eur to 0.37 after weak nine-month results and after the company cut the guidance
   
Fiat down 1.10 pct at 20.64
Telecom Italia down 1.07 pct at 2.12 after the release of nine-month results that showed a 9.9 pct drop in net profit, in line with forecasts Eni down 0.95 pct at 24.07
   
Main S&P/Mib gainers
Lottomatica up 3.46 pct at 24.50 after the release of nine-month results broadly matching consensus forecast and also cut its full year guidance, also in line with analysts expectations
  
Unipol up 2.30 pct at 2.49 after the company officially said it would discuss how to distribute the some 1.8 bln eur in excess cash at a December board meeting. Market players have been expecting the group to pay an extraordinary dividend Prysmian up 2.05 pct at 19.15 Banco Popolare up 1.21 pct at 15.07 Italcementi up 1.13 pct at 13.84

Other stocks in the news
Pirelli up 0.87 pct at 0.8325 ahead of its board meeting that may give some indications on how it will spend the 3.3 bln eur it cashed in by selling its stake in Telecom Italia Enel up 0.33 pct at 8.32 as CA Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to 'selected list' from 'outperform' with a 9.4 eur target after strong quarterly results

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BRUSSELS - Market data at 9.59 am:

Main index
   
Bel 20 up 33.73 points or 0.82 at 4,141.53

Bel 20 gainers
   
Bekaert up 3.45 eur or 3.75 pct at 95.56 after posting a nine-month trading update this morning which showed a 5.6 pct progression in sales, at the upper end of analysts' expectations, on strong organic growth, partially offset by negative currency impacts, upgraded to 'accumulate' from 'hold' at Bank Degroof,
target cut to 105 eur
   
Delhaize up 1.65 eur or 2.89 pct at 58.65, recovering from losses following Q3 figures yesterday. Citigroup reiterated its 'buy' recommendation and cut its target to 70 eur vs 75
   
KBC rises 2.81 eur or 3.17 pct to 91.51 on better-than-expected third quarter results
   
Dexia up 0.36 eur or 1.88 pct at 19.48
   
Belgacom gains 0.17 eur or 0.52 pct to 32.90 following third quarter results which came out above analysts' estimates, KBC raised its target to 34 eur from 31, Rabo put target under review for upgrade
   
CNP edges 0.11 eur or 0.22 pct higher at 51.11 following third quarter results yesterday after the market closed which showed restricted current net profit for the first nine months rose to 145.3 mln eur from 92.2 mln thanks to the inclusion of the Total interim dividend
   
Bel 20 fallers
   
UCB falls 0.44 eur or 1.18 pct to 36.76
   
Inbev drops 0.24 eur or 0.40 pct to 59.50, recovering from double-digit losses yesterday following third-quarter numbers that missed analysts' forecasts, JP Morgan initiates coverage with 'overweight' recommendation, 75 eur target

Outside the Bel 20
   
Tessenderlo adds 0.50 eur or 1.13 pct to 44.65 as analysts greeted 'very strong' third-quarter results, which the group posted last night after market close

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