Can You Fight Inflation With This Real Return ETF? - Commodity ETFs
December 16 2011 - 5:01AM
Zacks
Although inflation isn’t an issue for most investors at this
time, the specter of rising prices continues to haunt the market,
especially for those in for the long haul. For these investors, the
easy money policies of the Fed, combined with the high budget
deficits and enormous debt problems facing the country, suggest
that a heavy inflation environment is likely in the not-too-distant
future, especially if the U.S. is to avoid the fate of Europe. In
order to combat this, many have give portfolios a tilt towards
securities that could benefit from a bout of inflation while
limiting exposure to securities that have a difficult time passing
on costs to end users.
Inflation-Fighting ETFs
While a sector tilt is one way to approach this issue, one can
also fight inflation via a variety of commodity and bond ETFs.
While TIPS ETFs as well as funds tracking precious metals are
always decent options, they might not—at least by
themselves—provide enough diversification in these shaky markets.
This is especially true given gold’s recent performance and the
incredibly low yield on many American TIPS, suggesting that a
broader focus is necessary in order to truly protect against
inflation (see Top Three High Yield Junk Bond ETFs).
If you are looking for a diversified option in the space, the
relatively new Global Real Return Fund (RRF) could be an
interesting choice. The fund, from ETF giant WisdomTree (WETF),
combines a variety of TIPS and commodities and collateralizes the
investment with T-Bills in order to give investors a chance to beat
out inflation. These securities are either tied outright to the
rate of price increases or they are products that are often the
first to surge when inflation is rising, suggesting that price
increases can be neutralized by this fund, especially when adding
in coupon payments (read Australia Bond ETF Showdown).
Real Return ETF In Focus
Currently, the product has about two-thirds of its holdings in
inflation-linked bonds with the remainder going towards
commodities. However, it should be noted that the product doesn’t
limit itself to American TIPS, as inflation-protected securities
are in the portfolio from nations such as Australia, Canada,
France, Mexico, and South Africa just to name a few. Meanwhile, on
the commodity side, exposure is spread across the various sectors
with softs, precious metals, livestock, grains, energy, and
industrial metals all making an appearance. Furthermore, the
product also puts assets in various parts around the futures curve,
giving exposure to futures that mature up to four months from now.
Lastly, it is important to remember that these commodity holdings
are based on both the Commodity Trends Indicator and the Credit
Suisse Commodity Benchmark so any alterations to the portfolio’s
natural resource component will be largely based on moves in these
two benchmarks (read Is USCI The Best Commodity ETF?).
RRF charges investors 60 basis points a year for its services
since it debuted in July of 2011. Thanks to ultra-low interest
rates around the world and still minimal levels of inflation, the
product pays out just 0.02% to investors in 30 Day SEC Yield terms.
This low rate along with commodity weakness has caused RRF to
underperform benchmarks in 2011 as the product has lost about 4.8%
in the past six months. This suggests that RRF has failed to match
the rate of inflation over these past months but it could equal or
even outperform if bonds—which comprise close to 70% of the
portfolio—pay out enough to offset any losses from capital
appreciation (read Go Local With Emerging Market Bond ETFs).
Alternatives To RRF
For investors uncertain about RRF based on its performance,
there is another option out there for those seeking access to the
real return space, the IndexIQ Real Return ETF (CPI). This fund,
while a bit more expensive than its WisdomTree counterpart, has
outperformed RRF so far this year and has done a pretty good job of
matching the rate of inflation. The fund has gained 1.5% since the
middle of July and 2.3% in year-to-date terms, more or less
equaling the current rate of inflation (depending on who you talk
to).
This outperformance is likely due to CPI’s focus on short term
bonds for its exposure as the product allocates close to 70% of its
securities to two ETFs, SHV and BIL. Beyond these two funds, TLT
makes up another 11% which likely helps to juice the overall return
of the fund. Investors should also note that although CPI has
outperformed so far in 2011, it isn’t guaranteed to do so in the
future. CPI is much more heavily focused on U.S. securities than
its real return ETF counterpart so a great deal of variance will
likely be due to the performance of international securities.
However, CPI’s more American-focus is likely to push the security
to be more in line with U.S inflation, suggesting that for those
seeking a global inflation-protected security, RRF could be the
better choice despite its subpar performance so far this year (see
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds).
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