We go down ... until such time ... - Voice of the People
November 28 2011 - 9:12AM
Zacks
Zacks highlights commentary from People and Picks Member
«TickerBandit».
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We go down ... until such time ...
we go up ...
A pretty simply concept. Is it really all that important
what the bottom price will be? Simply refrain from one's
fully desired exposure until an upside reversal occurs.
But even so ... the TBUI already indicates that today's price is
likely a discount to the price twenty days from now ... so its time
to begin covering any modest short positions one may have.
Values for the tickerbandicators are:
TBUI ... 4.24
TBPI .... 2.70 (This is first week in the positive for the
pessimism indicator ... indicating that fear has returned to the
market).
TBOI ... -5.19 ... This one isn't saying much ... just
that few stocks are exhibiting strength ...
Bottom line? Bear market thresholds were not met in the
topping phase of this correction. There are above
neutral odds that the Oct low will successfully retest and we rally
to new highs.
So the question now becomes, when and what price will the rally
begin? My answer for that question is ... when and at
the price it happes. :-) But then that does not mean I
am without a strategy :-).
I'm covering shorts ... next week I plan to do some
purchasing. Not fully desired exposure. Just add in
weakness up to 30% of the exposure I want for the next rally. I'll
purchase the rest on a bona-fide reversal.
After reversal, prices go higher ... until such time ... they go
lower ... :-) And so goes the circle of life :-) If all
works out we enjoy the frivolity of bull market highs. If the
following rally doesn't persist ... we'll have cover exposure ...
and resign to the probable outcome of a bear market.
But for now, one should give the benefit of the doubt to a bull
market rally and the present weakness a retest in a bull market
correction.
Which brings us to the question? Could a bull market
correction be a bear market? I guess I could accept that
description in this context. It could be possible that
breeching bear market prices on this retest is a buying opportunity
followed by a rally to new highs. I guess what I am saying is
that breaching bear market prices won't necessarily mean there will
be months of bear market ahead. The rally which follows,
however, will have to be robust and uniformly participated
though.
Happy Trading, TB
The most recent picks by «TickerBandit» are:
A sell rating on Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs
ETF (FAS),
a buy rating on Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs
ETF (FAZ) and
a buy rating on Direxion Daily Small-Cap Bear 3X Shs
ETF (TZA).
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