Bank Shares Drop as Analysts Weigh 'Brexit' Impact
June 27 2016 - 7:00AM
Dow Jones News
LONDON—Shares in U.K. and European banks fell again Monday as
their earlier plans to improve returns looked like pipe dreams
after Thursday's vote by Britons to leave the European Union.
The region's financial sector is being battered on fears that
fragile recoveries at many banks will be delayed and that volatile
markets could claim scalps. Most European banks are in far stronger
shape than they were before 2008's financial meltdown and
subsequent eurozone crisis in terms of their capital and ability to
withstand shocks. But jolts to their businesses from political
turmoil, jittery markets and worried businesses and consumers
appear unavoidable.
To help struggling lenders cope, the Italian government is
considering a €40 billion ($44.4 billion) capital infusion into its
banks, people familiar with the matter said. The sector has
suffered from chronically low profitability, thin capital buffers
and high costs.
U.K. banks remained on the front line in Monday's selloff.
Barclays PLC dropped 12% and trading in its shares had to be
suspended at one stage in the morning. Jefferies said Brexit "is a
game changer" that presents existential questions for Barclays'
investment bank. Barclays, along with Credit Suisse Group and
Deutsche Bank AG, was counting on relatively stable markets and
economic conditions to reshape its operations in the next few
years. Shares in Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank were both down by
around 7%.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC fell 15%, its slow path to
independence from 73% state ownership now seen far in the future.
Stock in Lloyds Banking Group PLC, the U.K.'s dominant mortgage
lender, was down 8%, hurting a plan by the U.K. government to sell
shares it still holds in that bank from the financial crisis.
Retail investors in the U.K. were to have been offered Lloyds
shares in the case of a "remain" vote.
Deutsche Bank analysts painted a gloomy picture for U.K. banks
Monday. Loan growth would likely be lower, bad loans higher, and
dividends at greater risk as the dust settles from Thursday's
historic decision, analysts at the German bank said.
"Political and economic uncertainty is here to stay, and we
expect the coming weeks and months will see significant volatility
in the share prices of U.K. financials and those with U.K.
operations," they wrote.
In a statement that did little to calm markets, Chancellor
George Osborne on Monday said the British economy "is about as
strong as it could be to confront the challenge our country now
faces."
Investors also sought to make sense Monday of how badly insurers
and asset managers will be affected by a Brexit. After double-digit
falls Friday, asset managers Henderson Group PLC and Schroders PLC
were sharply down again Monday, as Citigroup analysts put them in a
"sit this out" category. They cut Henderson's rating to neutral and
said it might not meet its financial targets.
Old worries over capital strength at Aviva PLC also flared up,
pushing its shares 4% lower after a 21% fall Friday. The insurer on
Monday said it has "one of the strongest and most resilient balance
sheets" in the U.K. insurance sector, and some analysts said the
stock may have been oversold.
Goldman Sachs analysts said the market turmoil since Friday
increases the risk of "a casualty" in the financial system, in a
hark back to the financial crisis when weak lenders fell like
dominoes.
'"Is this a Lehman moment" was the most frequently asked
question on Friday, the bank analysts wrote.
They said anything of that magnitude is unlikely.
Giovanni Legorano in Milan contributed to this article.
Write to Margot Patrick at margot.patrick@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 27, 2016 07:45 ET (11:45 GMT)
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