Japan's government Tuesday underlined its determination to reach
a deal on restructuring loss-making carrier Japan Airlines Corp.
(9205.TO) within days, stepping up talks between ministers, a
rescue task force and creditors on proposals that could plug
yawning gaps in its balance sheet, jettison unprofitable routes and
cut thousands of jobs.
But while investors' hopes for a deal lifted JAL's shares for a
second straight day, after shedding over a fifth of their value
late last week, the government still has to bring JAL's creditor
banks on board.
The lenders balked at original proposals from a Transport
Ministry task force, including a debt waiver worth over $3 billion,
according to people familiar with the situation.
The JAL saga is becoming a second early test of the recently
installed government's willingness to intervene in business affairs
after floating--and then watering down--plans to oblige banks to
allow the country’s struggling small businesses more time to pay
off debts.
And despite Japan's bulging budget deficit, government ministers
acknowledged Tuesday that they may have to consider using fresh
public funds as part of a package to revive the country's biggest
airline by revenue, hurt by the global slowdown in business and
leisure travel this year.
At the same time, JAL remains in contact with Delta Air Lines
Inc. (DAL) and AMR Corp.'s (AMR) American Airlines over a possible
alliance that could see one of the two U.S. carriers taking a small
stake in Tokyo-based JAL.
"Time is really pressing," Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said
at a news conference after a Cabinet meeting in the capital. A
decision on a restructuring plan "will probably be within a few
days," the minister said.
At a separate news conference, Transport Minister Seiji Maehara
reiterated that a draft restructuring plan will be filed by the end
of this month, in line with previous commitments by the government
led by the Democratic Party of Japan. But in a hint that the
government may be prepared to compromise on its original intentions
to seal a recovery package, Maehara said, "The plan is
evolving."
The numbers at JAL, formerly state-owned but privatized in 1987,
highlight the gravity of the situation. Despite efforts to cut
costs, its net loss ballooned to over $1 billion - Y99 billion - in
the first quarter of its fiscal year ended June, compared with a
net loss of Y3.41 billion in the same period a year earlier.
And though it forecasts an improvement in the second half as the
global economy picks up, the company still expects to post a net
loss of Y63 billion in the 12 months through March, equal to about
$1.9 million a day.
The seriousness of the situation is reflected also in an
apparent openness to international partnerships on the part of
JAL's leading trade union, matching management's willingness to
talk to its peers. Japan Airlines Workers' Union, which represents
9,600 of JAL's total workforce of close 50,000, would welcome an
alliance with either Delta or American Airlines, according to one
person familiar with the situation.
That is a significant shift for both the company and many of its
employees, who have long-favored independence over forming
partnerships. JAL only joined the Oneworld alliance of carriers,
featuring American, in 2006, making it the last of the top 20
international airlines by revenue to join such a network. The
company’s younger managers argued at the time that independence was
untenable in an era when major carriers were forming global
alliances and code-sharing agreements.
Hideshi Takashi, the secretary-general of Japan Airlines
Workers' Union, said he hoped JAL’s management would study all
options "calmly" before reaching any conclusions.
Though it already raised Y100 billion last June to cover daily
operating costs, analysts estimate JAL may need up to Y150 billion
in new funds in the second half of the fiscal year through March
2010 just to keep its jets in the air, even without considering
ways to tackle its pile of debt. Earlier this week the company
denied one media report that said its liabilities now exceed its
assets.
While Japanese media have carried reports that the restructuring
plan will involve the sale of various assets including JAL's hotel
business, as well as the disposal of tens of large jets, the
company Tuesday said no decisions have yet been made.
At his news conference Transport Minister Maehara said he met
with Finance Minister Fujii and members of the task force to review
progress on the restructuring package. According to people familiar
with the situation, the task force is also scheduled to meet
representatives of JAL's principal creditors later Tuesday.
As a legacy of the previous Liberal Democratic Party
government's willingness to accommodate JAL requests for finance,
rather than impose the kind of restructuring that has been common
in the long-ailing airline sector, the Development Bank of Japan, a
state lending agency, has the largest outstanding loan to JAL,
worth about Y230 billion.
But all of Japan's big three banks also have significant
long-term financing exposure. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, a
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.TO) banking unit, has Y57
billion outstanding. Mizuho Corporate Bank, the wholesale banking
unit of Mizuho Financial Group (8411.TO), has about Y53 billion
loans to JAL. And Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., the core banking
unit of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316,TO), has about Y37
billion outstanding as of March, according to JAL's financial
statements.
All four creditors declined to comment Tuesday on their lending
to JAL.
Long-plagued by loss-making routes, JAL has swung in and out of
the red for many years, while rival local carrier All Nippon
Airways Co. (9202.TO) has grown in stature and is now twice as
large as JAL by market value.
Mina Sawamura, a credit analyst at Moody's ratings agency, said,
"What separates JAL from ANA is the fact that JAL has kept flying
unprofitable international routes. Meanwhile, Japan has over a
hundred airports, and capacity is full at Haneda and Narita – where
demand is the greatest."
Moody's doesn't have a rating on JAL itself, but last week
downgraded the long-term debt at a large unit, Japan Airlines
International Co., to B1 from Ba3, and placed the rating on review
for a possible further downgrade.
"The banks and their shareholders will react very strongly if
they are forced to forgive debt," said Sawamura. "At the same time,
because (U.S.) Chapter 11-style bankruptcy proceedings do not exist
in Japan, the government will not allow JAL to fail," she said.
Both Maehara and Fujii said Tuesday the pair will meet again if
a decision is formally made to use fresh public funds to support
JAL. But Fujii noted that all of the task force's various
restructuring proposals do involve using the public purse.
Still, Fujii declined to commit himself to using taxpayers'
money already, saying, “We have to think about the task force's
ideas separately from what Maehara may bring in."
Whatever the methodology, the prospect of a restructuring deal
flushed out buyers for JAL shares Tuesday, sending the stock nearly
9% higher at one point. The shares eventually closed up 4.4%, after
an 11% jump the previous day, while the Nikkei 225 average finished
the day 1% higher.
At Y118, valuing JAL at Y322 billion, the shares closed well
above the Y100 lifetime low hit Oct. 16 as concerns mounted about
reluctance among JAL's creditors to accept a debt waiver. Still
that level was 15% below their 25-day moving average, and only
slightly over half this year's high of Y215. That was achieved in
January, long before the scale of the company's financial plight
became apparent.
-By Kenneth Maxwell, Atsuko Fukase and Mariko Sanchanta, Dow
Jones Newswires; 813-6895 7564; kenneth.maxwell@dowjones.com
(Takashi Nakamichi and Yoshio Takahashi contributed to this
article)