Dendreon Drug Clears Difficult Hurdle, But Others Remain
April 29 2009 - 12:36PM
Dow Jones News
Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) has cleared a significant hurdle in
bringing its controversial prostate cancer treatment Provenge to
market, but obstacles remain before the drug gets launched.
Provenge could be a blockbuster drug, with the potential to
revolutionize cancer treatment by harnessing the immune system to
fight the disease, but the Seattle drug developer still must pass a
cautious Food and Drug Administration, including the resolution of
manufacturing questions.
Dendreon also could face resistance over the drug's price at a
time when the government is looking to reduce healthcare costs.
Though they will likely cover the drug, insurers may make noise
about paying high sums for a treatment that may only add a few
months to a patient's life.
These issues, along with a likely healthy short interest
position, could lead to continued volatility for the excitable
stock.
Today, though, the emphasis is on the positive as Dendreon
shares recently more than doubled to $24.12 in heavy trading,
likely wiping out some short positions. Earlier, the stock hit an
all-time high of $27.40. Part of Dendreon's new valuation may
reflect the company's potential to secure a lucrative partnership
or outright acquisition.
On Tuesday, data showed that Provenge prolonged the lives of
advanced prostate-cancer patients by 4.1 months, likely meeting
targets set under a special agreement with the FDA in 2007, when
the agency said it wanted to see the results before deciding
whether to approve Provenge.
"This is an execution story now," said analyst Joe Pantginis
with Merriman Curhan Ford.
Following the Provenge data, many analysts now have price
targets of more than $30 for the stock based on future annual sales
rising up to $2 billion. But analyst models don't include the
possibility of off-label sales, which could be significant as
physicians may use the drug in earlier-stage patients because of
its mild side effects in comparison to toxic chemotherapy
regimens.
The next step for Dendreon will be to file its amendment to a
previously rejected marketing application for Provenge in the
fourth quarter. Opinions remain split on whether the Food and Drug
Administration will want to hold an advisory panel to review the
new data.
Some believe that Dendreon's conversations with regulators made
it clear that its latest trial will be enough for approval, but
others maintain that the FDA will seek maximum input in approving a
new class of drugs.
The FDA also must approve Dendreon's New Jersey manufacturing
facility, which prompted agency questions in its previous marketing
application. Dendreon has said it "substantially responded" to
those issues, but the final word will come from the agency.
Unlike making a pill, Provenge's production involves taking a
patient's cells, shipping them to the company for processing, then
returning them to a physician to be delivered via intravenous
infusion. This entire process must be performed three times over
four weeks.
The FDA may proceed with caution in overseeing this new type of
production, but many note that Provenge's production for clinical
trials has allowed Dendreon to work out any major issues.
The company expects Provenge to be priced similarly to other
biologic medicines that have complicated manufacturing processes.
Those drugs, like Roche Holding AG's (RHHBY) Avastin, can sell for
more than $50,000 a year.
The acceptance of high-priced biologic drugs by insurers has
observers confident that Provenge should have no problem getting
the support of those that pay for patient treatment.
Dendreon will clearly face costs in launching Provenge, but many
expect that its cash position of $105 million in cash and
short-term investment at Dec. 31 to be sufficient. No longer having
to pay for the expensive late-stage clinic trial should
significantly cut expenses.
Dendreon expects to sell the drug in the U.S. but find a partner
for overseas marketing. Having a strong cash position, in the
currently difficult funding environment, will likely allow Dendreon
to negotiate better partnership terms because it doesn't need a
cash injection.
Pantginis believes that Takeda Pharmaceuticals Co. (4502.TO),
GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK) and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) are the most
likely partners because of their interest in cancer
immunotherapy.
Furthermore, it is possible that partnership talks could develop
into an outright acquisition of Dendreon.
The prospect of an unpartnered cancer drug with strong data from
a company with a platform that could produce future pipeline
candidates may be too good for suitors to pass up - especially as
Dendreon still only has a market value of $2.3 billion.
Last year, Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) paid $6.5 billion for
ImClone Systems, citing its attractive pipeline of biologic cancer
therapies, even though ImClone's only product, cancer drug Erbitux,
was already partnered with Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY).
-Thomas Gryta; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2053;
thomas.gryta@dowjones.com