6
Wall Street Commentary on Tarceva Maintenance
Astellas' offer attributes value to all of the potential label expansions for
Astellas' offer attributes value to all of the potential label expansions for
Tarceva, including maintenance approval. Wall Street research analysts
Tarceva, including maintenance approval. Wall Street research analysts
generally do not see significant value associated with maintenance
generally do not see significant value associated with maintenance
approval
approval
"The EU approval of Tarceva as first-line maintenance therapy (FLMT) is a positive surprise
given the
negative FDA ODAC
panel...
The commercial hurdle would likely be high for Tarceva, if appro
ved....
We
estimate the sales potential of
FLMT in the EU to be about $100-150 mm, representing
about $1-$2 per share in NPV.
Goldman Sachs
March 19, 2010
"While today's news is an incremental positive, we see maintenance as a niche opportunity
with peak potential of
$50M to $100M in Europe...we estimate this could be worth an incremental $1.00/share to base
business....
We don't think
this announcement supports a materially higher bid from
current levels.
JP Morgan
March 19, 2010
OSIP's
confidence in its valuation is based on its discussions with FDA for the maintenance indication and
ongoing clinical
trials. We already have a high level of confidence that the FDA will
approve Tarceva in the maintenance setting but believe
there is likely only modest impact
to sales
as a result.
RBC
March 15, 2010
We do remain skeptical on the maintenance setting, however,
and believe that even under a best-case scenario, the
FDA...gives Tarceva a restricted label that contraindicates use in the squamous
cell and EGFR mutant populations
at which
point,
any competitive differentiation relative to
Alimta
, which has better data in
non
-
squamous
patients,
becomes difficult.
Thomas Weisel
February 24, 2010
Source: Wall Street research.
Note:
Permission to use quotations was neither sought
nor obtained.
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