SEATTLE, June 6, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- The rate of
babies being born is dropping the most in counties where home
values are appreciating the fastest, according to a new Zillow®
analysisi. An extra 10 percentage-point rise in home
values is associated with an extra 1.5 percentage-point drop in
birth rates for 25-to-29 year old women.
The trend is most pronounced in pricey California markets, as well as in Austin, Texas, Brooklyn, N.Y. and Seattle. In Los
Angeles County, the birth rate among women aged 25 to 29
fell 17 percent from 2010 to 2016, while home values rose 31
percent. Zillow found that 2,588 fewer babies were born to women in
this age group in Los Angeles
County in 2016 than would otherwise be expected given local
home value growthii, the greatest drop in births among
all counties analyzed.
In San Diego County, the birth
rate fell 19 percent while home values rose 34 percent, which is
associated with 1,148 fewer babies than would be implied by the
area's home value growth alone. The birth rate in Travis County fell 22 percent, while home
values rose 33 percent -- this is associated with 585 fewer babies
than expected.
At the onset of the Great Recession, the birth rate began
falling, dropping from a high of 2.12 babies per woman in 2007, to
1.93 by 2010. It's common for birth rates to tick up as the economy
improves, but the birth rate continues to fall even as the economy
has recovered, to just 1.82 by the end of 2016iii.
Raising a child is an expensive proposition, and many couples
may be questioning whether now is the right time to have kids or
may be choosing to move to more affordable communities before
starting a family. Many young adults aim for financial stability
before having children, but with rising housing costs, financial
stability may be increasingly out of reach -- a 20 percent down
payment on the typical U.S. home requires more than $40,000. Home values across the U.S. are
appreciating at their fastest pace in 12 years, and are projected
to rise another 6.5 percent over the next year.
Counties with the Greatest Drop in Birth-Rate Relative to
Home Value Growth from 2010-2016
County
|
Main
City
|
Fewer Babies
After
Accounting for Home
Value Change
|
Change in
Home Values
|
Drop in Birth
Rate
|
Los Angeles County,
CA
|
Los
Angeles
|
-2,588
|
31%
|
-17%
|
San Diego County,
CA
|
San Diego
|
-1,148
|
34%
|
-19%
|
Orange County,
CA
|
Los
Angeles
|
-774
|
28%
|
-16%
|
Cook County,
IL
|
Chicago
|
-709
|
-3%
|
-9%
|
Philadelphia County,
PA
|
Philadelphia
|
-700
|
-2%
|
-14%
|
Travis County,
TX
|
Austin
|
-585
|
33%
|
-22%
|
Kings County,
NY
|
Brooklyn
|
-569
|
36%
|
-15%
|
Alameda County,
CA
|
Oakland
|
-569
|
60%
|
-24%
|
King County,
WA
|
Seattle
|
-545
|
32%
|
-18%
|
Middlesex County,
NJ
|
Edison
|
-531
|
-7%
|
-21%
|
"There are many highly personal reasons beyond housing costs why
some couples may delay having children, or choose not to have them
at all, and it's important to remember that correlation does not
necessarily mean causation," said Zillow senior economist
Aaron Terrazas. "The big question
this research raises is whether millennials are simply delaying
childbirth into their 30s, or are actually choosing to have fewer
children – and so far, the data are mixed. Recently released
preliminary data shows fertility rates among 30-something women
fell in 2017 for the first time since 2010, an ominous sign, but
then again, respondents to recent census surveys indicate they
expect to eventually have just as many children as respondents in
prior years. Ultimately, this data adds another layer to the
argument that rising housing costs are contributing to meaningful
delays in achieving a number of key life milestones, including
getting married and buying a first home – two very important steps
on the road to starting a family."
The birth rate was up in counties where home value growth is
weaker. In Pima County, home to
Tucson, Ariz., home values have
essentially remained unchanged since 2010, but the birth rate is up
5 percent, which accounts for 340 more babies than expected.
County
|
Main
City
|
Extra/Fewer
Babies
After Accounting for
Home Value Change
|
Home Value
Change, 2010
to 2016
|
Fertility Change
for 25-
to 29-Year-Old Women,
2010 to 2016
|
Harris County,
TX
|
Houston
|
1,207
|
19%
|
-2%
|
Wayne County,
MI
|
Detroit
|
554
|
30%
|
-2%
|
Los Angeles County,
CA
|
Los
Angeles
|
-2,588
|
31%
|
-17%
|
Middlesex County,
NJ
|
Edison
|
-531
|
-7%
|
-21%
|
Miami-Dade County,
FL
|
Miami
|
892
|
50%
|
-4%
|
Dallas County,
TX
|
Dallas
|
745
|
14%
|
-1%
|
Utah County,
UT
|
Provo
|
479
|
12%
|
4%
|
San Diego County,
CA
|
San Diego
|
-1,148
|
34%
|
-19%
|
Orange County,
CA
|
Los
Angeles
|
-774
|
28%
|
-16%
|
Franklin County,
OH
|
Columbus
|
-282
|
9%
|
-11%
|
Ocean County,
NJ
|
The Jersey
Shore
|
146
|
-7%
|
2%
|
Philadelphia County,
PA
|
Philadelphia
|
-700
|
-2%
|
-14%
|
Santa Clara County,
CA
|
San Jose
|
-412
|
58%
|
-20%
|
Pima County,
AZ
|
Tucson
|
340
|
0%
|
5%
|
Cook County,
IL
|
Chicago
|
-709
|
-3%
|
-9%
|
Alameda County,
CA
|
Oakland
|
-569
|
60%
|
-24%
|
Clark County,
NV
|
Las Vegas
|
295
|
40%
|
-8%
|
New Castle County,
DE
|
Wilmington
|
-338
|
-7%
|
-19%
|
Travis County,
TX
|
Austin
|
-585
|
33%
|
-22%
|
Douglas County,
NE
|
Omaha
|
219
|
9%
|
2%
|
San Bernardino
County, CA
|
San
Bernardino
|
536
|
49%
|
-8%
|
Tarrant County,
TX
|
Fort Worth
|
440
|
17%
|
-3%
|
East Baton Rouge
Parish, LA
|
Baton
Rouge
|
228
|
-3%
|
9%
|
Palm Beach County,
FL
|
Palm Beach
|
312
|
37%
|
-4%
|
Genesee County,
MI
|
Flint
|
153
|
20%
|
2%
|
DeKalb County,
GA
|
Atlanta
|
239
|
11%
|
1%
|
Berks County,
PA
|
Reading
|
169
|
-8%
|
8%
|
Suffolk County,
NY
|
Long
Island
|
-531
|
-2%
|
-17%
|
Multnomah County,
OR
|
Portland
|
-215
|
37%
|
-19%
|
Davidson County,
TN
|
Nashville
|
-80
|
31%
|
-12%
|
Dakota County,
MN
|
Minneapolis
|
82
|
12%
|
-2%
|
Baltimore County,
MD
|
Baltimore
|
-294
|
-8%
|
-13%
|
Queens County,
NY
|
Queens
|
252
|
21%
|
-6%
|
Shelby County,
TN
|
Memphis
|
216
|
3%
|
0%
|
Jefferson Parish,
LA
|
New
Orleans
|
76
|
-5%
|
0%
|
Zillow Research
Zillow is the leading real estate and rental marketplace
dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and
knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with
great real estate professionals. In addition, Zillow operates an
industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow
Group's Chief Economist Dr. Svenja
Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data
analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more
than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also
sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which
asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and
investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow
Home Value Index over the next five years. Launched in 2006, Zillow
is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and ZG), and
headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.
i This analysis relied on the Zillow Home Value Index
(ZHVI), and age-specific fertility rates from the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health
Statistics. Counties with fewer than 10,000 women were excluded
from the regression to reduce noise. Several different
specifications were tested for robustness and yielded similar
results.
ii The predicted amount is based on the observed home
value growth. For example, according to the trend line Zillow
created, Los Angeles County's home
value growth of 31 percent from 2010-2016 would on average be
associated with a 10% drop in fertility – this is the expected
amount. But, fertility actually fell 17 percent, which is an extra
7 percent below the trend line and expected amount, which equates
to 2,588 fewer babies than expected.
iii The latest data available.
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content:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/birth-rates-are-falling-most-where-homes-are-appreciating-fastest-300660411.html
SOURCE Zillow