SEATTLE, June 18, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The housing market
has shown resilience during the coronavirus pandemic, slowing as
stay-at-home orders were given across the country, but not
screeching to a halt. Home values had been staying the course,
continuing to grow at roughly the same pace as before the outbreak.
But the May Zillow® Real Estate Market Reporti may have
revealed the first indication that home values will fall in the
second half of the year.
According to the Zillow Home Value Index, the typical home value
in the U.S. is $251,598, up 4.3% year
over year -- a small acceleration from April's 4.2% year over year.
But by more recent measures the growth rate has begun to
slow.
In April, home values grew 0.41% month over month. In May, that
slowed to 0.35%, the biggest one-month slowdown since March 2019 and a possible indicator that the
market is headed for home value declines in the coming months. The
most recent forecast from Zillow's economic research team
shows an expected 1.8% drop in prices through October 2020 from the highs in February, with a
slow price recovery by mid-spring in 2021. The year-over-year
change is forecasted to bottom out at -0.7%.
May's home value growth slowdown was widespread, hitting 27 of
the 35 largest U.S. metros. Home value growth slowed the most over
April in a mix of the most expensive areas (San Francisco, San
Jose, Los Angeles and
Seattle), what had been the
hottest markets (Phoenix,
Columbus and Indianapolis) and metros in states with a
relatively high number of COVID-19 cases (Detroit and Pittsburgh).
Home values outright fell from April to May in five metros --
San Francisco, San Jose, Pittsburgh, Los
Angeles and Sacramento.
"Home buyers returned to the market earlier than might have been
expected given the state of the economy, finding a market starved
for inventory because of seller uncertainty. This improved demand
has supported home prices and appears to have given sellers a
confidence boost as new listings have slowly picked up," said
Skylar Olsen, senior principal
economist at Zillow. "The next question housing will face is
whether this growth can continue after demand built up during
housing's brief pause in the pandemic's early days runs its course.
It's likely housing will feel the broader economy's downturn
eventually, though to a mild degree, and home values will fall in
the coming months."
Annual rent growth slowed for the third consecutive month, up
2.2% year over year to $1,657 after
growing 3.4% annually just two months prior. That's the lowest rate
of year-over-year growth since at least 2014. The annual growth
rate slowed from the previous month in 27 large metros, and rents
fell from last May in New York and
San Jose.
In a positive sign for inventory, for-sale listings grew 1.5%
from last month. Still, inventory is not growing at the rate
typically seen during the springtime -- inventory grew 4.5% from
April to May 2019 -- and is down 9.6%
from last year as a result. Increased buyer demand is helping to
keep inventory low -- newly pending sales were up 28.5% month over
month as of the first week of June, and page views on for-sale
homes on Zillow were 41% higher than a year ago at the end of
Mayii. It's likely buyer demand will soften in the
coming months as the wave of pre-existing demand from before the
pandemic dries up, especially if unemployment remains
high.
Mortgage rates listed by third-party lenders on Zillow started
the month at 3.52% and rose to a peak of 3.59% on May 11. Rates reached their monthly low on
May 21 at 3.42%, and ended the month
at 3.49%. Zillow's real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands
of custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers on
the Zillow Group Mortgages site by third-party lenders and reflect
recent changes in the marketiii.
Metropolitan
Area
|
Zillow Home
Value Index
(ZHVI), May
2020
|
ZHVI -
MoM
Change,
May
2020
|
ZHVI -
MoM
Change,
April
2020
|
ZHVI -
YoY
Change,
May
2020
|
Typical
Rent,
May
2020
|
Typical
Rent -
YOY
Change,
May
2020
|
Total
Inventory -
YOY
Change,
May 2020
|
United
States
|
$251,598
|
0.35%
|
0.41%
|
4.3%
|
$1,657
|
2.2%
|
-9.6%
|
New York,
NY
|
$489,137
|
0.13%
|
0.14%
|
1.2%
|
$2,675
|
-0.3%
|
-15.9%
|
Los Angeles,
CA
|
$695,412
|
-0.05%
|
0.39%
|
4.8%
|
$2,502
|
1.6%
|
-25.5%
|
Chicago,
IL
|
$243,752
|
0.00%
|
0.04%
|
0.8%
|
$1,756
|
0.9%
|
-10.9%
|
Dallas-Fort Worth,
TX
|
$257,309
|
0.33%
|
0.36%
|
2.8%
|
$1,547
|
1.6%
|
-1.7%
|
Philadelphia,
PA
|
$255,816
|
0.33%
|
0.33%
|
3.3%
|
$1,592
|
2.3%
|
-27.4%
|
Houston,
TX
|
$221,426
|
0.31%
|
0.40%
|
3.0%
|
$1,468
|
0.5%
|
1.4%
|
Washington,
DC
|
$442,151
|
0.33%
|
0.35%
|
3.3%
|
$2,046
|
0.6%
|
-16.5%
|
Miami-Fort
Lauderdale, FL
|
$308,358
|
0.39%
|
0.45%
|
3.4%
|
$1,954
|
2.0%
|
-11.0%
|
Atlanta,
GA
|
$245,983
|
0.37%
|
0.42%
|
4.7%
|
$1,520
|
2.2%
|
1.0%
|
Boston, MA
|
$504,318
|
0.38%
|
0.41%
|
3.7%
|
$2,690
|
1.5%
|
-20.5%
|
San Francisco,
CA
|
$1,120,498
|
-0.77%
|
-0.32%
|
1.6%
|
$3,121
|
0.6%
|
-22.0%
|
Detroit,
MI
|
$187,529
|
0.09%
|
0.45%
|
4.7%
|
$1,167
|
2.6%
|
-10.3%
|
Riverside,
CA
|
$392,071
|
0.25%
|
0.38%
|
3.7%
|
$1,923
|
4.4%
|
-21.3%
|
Phoenix,
AZ
|
$300,740
|
0.95%
|
1.11%
|
9.3%
|
$1,463
|
6.0%
|
-21.1%
|
Seattle,
WA
|
$543,523
|
0.44%
|
0.75%
|
7.1%
|
$1,963
|
3.2%
|
-24.4%
|
Minneapolis-St. Paul,
MN
|
$301,440
|
0.36%
|
0.47%
|
4.8%
|
$1,567
|
1.8%
|
1.3%
|
San Diego,
CA
|
$633,752
|
0.51%
|
0.42%
|
5.6%
|
$2,325
|
2.3%
|
-23.7%
|
St. Louis,
MO
|
$183,000
|
0.26%
|
0.33%
|
2.8%
|
$1,084
|
3.4%
|
-11.2%
|
Tampa, FL
|
$235,572
|
0.54%
|
0.65%
|
5.7%
|
$1,527
|
3.5%
|
-11.2%
|
Baltimore,
MD
|
$297,468
|
0.14%
|
0.11%
|
1.3%
|
$1,590
|
0.2%
|
-20.2%
|
Denver, CO
|
$448,001
|
0.43%
|
0.32%
|
3.3%
|
$1,729
|
0.8%
|
-10.5%
|
Pittsburgh,
PA
|
$162,803
|
-0.07%
|
0.27%
|
4.1%
|
$1,170
|
3.1%
|
-17.8%
|
Portland,
OR
|
$426,019
|
0.48%
|
0.38%
|
3.4%
|
$1,603
|
1.3%
|
-10.1%
|
Charlotte,
NC
|
$244,059
|
0.68%
|
0.72%
|
6.5%
|
$1,446
|
2.0%
|
-8.2%
|
Sacramento,
CA
|
$441,845
|
-0.01%
|
0.29%
|
4.9%
|
$1,789
|
3.4%
|
-10.3%
|
San Antonio,
TX
|
$208,916
|
0.12%
|
0.06%
|
2.8%
|
$1,291
|
2.0%
|
5.7%
|
Orlando,
FL
|
$263,183
|
0.60%
|
0.65%
|
5.1%
|
$1,571
|
1.2%
|
-9.0%
|
Cincinnati,
OH
|
$191,623
|
0.71%
|
0.57%
|
5.5%
|
$1,175
|
4.8%
|
-16.6%
|
Cleveland,
OH
|
$163,400
|
0.40%
|
0.50%
|
5.1%
|
$1,060
|
3.6%
|
-20.5%
|
Kansas City,
MO
|
$209,994
|
0.56%
|
0.56%
|
4.8%
|
$1,126
|
3.6%
|
-16.9%
|
Las Vegas,
NV
|
$296,575
|
0.24%
|
0.49%
|
2.3%
|
$1,414
|
2.2%
|
-19.1%
|
Columbus,
OH
|
$219,012
|
0.33%
|
0.47%
|
6.0%
|
$1,251
|
2.9%
|
-10.5%
|
Indianapolis,
IN
|
$187,285
|
0.52%
|
0.67%
|
6.2%
|
$1,136
|
3.4%
|
-7.3%
|
San Jose,
CA
|
$1,200,523
|
-0.32%
|
0.07%
|
3.0%
|
$3,086
|
-0.3%
|
-26.3%
|
Austin, TX
|
$349,169
|
0.71%
|
0.64%
|
4.8%
|
$1,561
|
0.8%
|
-1.8%
|
About Zillow
Zillow, the top real estate website in the U.S., is building an
on-demand real estate experience. Whether selling, buying, renting
or financing, customers can turn to Zillow's businesses to find and
get into their next home with speed, certainty and ease.
In addition to for-sale and rental listings, Zillow Offers buys
and sells homes directly in dozens of markets across the country,
allowing sellers control over their timeline. Zillow Home Loans,
our affiliate lender, provides our customers with an easy option to
get pre-approved and secure financing for their next home
purchase.
Millions of people visit Zillow Group sites every month to start
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finish it — with the same confidence, ease and empowerment they've
come to expect from real estate's most trusted brand.
Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group,
Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and ZG) and headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow and Zillow Offers are registered trademarks of Zillow,
Inc.
i The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are a monthly
overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports
are compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information,
visit www.zillow.com/research/. The data in Zillow's Real Estate
Market Reports are aggregated from public sources by a number of
data providers for 928 metropolitan and micropolitan areas dating
back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data are typically recorded in
each county and publicly available through a county recorder's
office. All current monthly data at the national, state, metro,
city, ZIP code and neighborhood level can be accessed at
www.zillow.com/research/data.
ii Including all page views of for-sale homes on
Zillow.com and the Zillow app, excluding those from real estate
agents and other professional users. Zillow measures page views
with Google Analytics. Daily figures were calculated using a
seven-day trailing average. Year-over-year comparisons were made
after offsetting 2019 data by two days in order to compare
consistent days of the week.
iii Zillow Group Marketplace, Inc. is a licensed
mortgage broker, NMLS #1303160.
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SOURCE Zillow