DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Baidu Inc. (BIDU) said Monday in the U.S. its third-quarter
earnings jumped 42% as large customers shifted more of their
advertising budgets to the leading Chinese search engine's
advertising platform.
However, the company disappointed with its fourth-quarter
revenue projection of $174 million to $180 million, well below the
$205 million expected by Wall Street. Baidu cited the temporary
effect of the discontinuation of its older marketing system.
That outlook sent Baidu's American depositary shares plunging
13.2% to $375.99 in after-hours trading. The stock, having nearly
quadrupled in value since mid-December, hit a 52-week high of
$439.90 earlier Monday.
Baidu reported earnings of CNY492.9 million ($72.2 million), or
CNY14.14 per American depositary share, for the three months ended
Sept. 30 compared with CNY347.9 million, or CNY10 per ADS, a year
earlier. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters projected earnings of
$1.83 an ADS.
Revenue surged 39% to CNY1.28 billion. In July, the company said
it expected revenue of $184 million to $189 million, topping Wall
Street estimates at the time.
Active online-marketing customers increased 11% to about
216,000, as revenue per customer grew 26%.
On a conference call with analysts, Haoyu Shen, vice president
of business operations, said the transition to the new marketing
system, called Phoenix Nest, would reduce sequential revenue growth
in the fourth quarter by 10 percentage points.
Customers used to the old system may not be ready to switch to
the new system by Dec. 1, when Baidu fully transitions to the new
system, he said. Therefore the company may temporarily lose their
advertising spending.
Shen also said the impact will last through the first quarter of
next year or longer.
"It will probably take a couple quarters from the date of the
switch for the situation to settle down and for us to return to a
normal growth trajectory," he said.
Investors had cause to believe the transition wouldn't be so
painful. In August, Baidu Chief Executive Robin Li told the Wall
Street Journal that "going forward, Phoenix Nest will have
meaningful positive impact to our revenue."
Phoenix Nest was launched in April, in response to widespread
criticism that Baidu didn't clearly differentiate advertisements
from normal search results. Baidu management says the system also
offers tools to advertisers to better measure the return on their
advertising spending, and therefore will eventually lead to higher
revenue.
Dick Wei, an analyst covering Baidu for J.P. Morgan, said the
new advertising system, which has advanced features similar to what
is offered by Google Inc. in the U.S., is too complex for some less
sophisticated Chinese advertisers, which explains their hesitation
to switch over.
Still, Wei said the new system will be positive for Baidu
eventually.
"In the longer term, this should be a better monetization
system, but I think that there is some near-term risk, for example
execution risk, related to this transition," he said.
At the end of the conference call, Baidu's Li attempted to
reassure investors about the transition.
"I understand many of you have concerns regarding the switch to
Phoenix Nest. I want to assure you that this is a strategic
decision made by the management. We did careful calculations and we
think, 12 months from now when we look back, we will be happy with
the switch," he said.
"We truly believe that Phoenix Nest is a superior monetization
system and time will tell that we are making the right
decision."
-By Aaron Back and Jay Miller, Dow Jones Newswires; (8610)
6588-5848; aaron.back@dowjones.com