Guess Misses in the Second Quarter - Analyst Blog
August 23 2012 - 7:22AM
Zacks
Guess? Inc.’s
(GES) second quarter of fiscal 2013 adjusted earnings per share
(EPS) of 49 cents missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 50 cents
and declined 41.7% from last year's 84 cents. The earnings declined
due to lower traffic in North American stores.
Revenues and Margins
Revenues in the quarter dropped 6.2% to $635.4 million from $677.2
million in the prior-year quarter.
Operating margin shrank 770 basis points year over year to 9.0%,
reflecting higher investment in advertising & marketing along
with negative same-store sales and higher occupancy & selling
costs in Europe.
As of July 28, 2012, the company operated operated 511 retail
stores in the United States and Canada and 300 retail stores in
Europe, Asia and Latin America.
Segment Results
Retail stores in the North American generated revenues of $253.0
million in the second quarter, down 3.1% from $261.1 million in the
same period last year. The decline was due to the ongoing
macroeconomic headwinds, which resulted in lower store traffic.
Comparable store sales shrank 8.5% (7.5% in local currency) from
the year-ago quarter. Operating income decreased 49% to $16.8
million from $32.9 million.
The European segment’s revenue slipped 15.0% to $246.9 million from
$288.8 million in the year-ago quarter, due to weakness in Southern
Europe. Currency headwinds also hurt revenues significantly.
Operating earnings slipped 61.0% to $24.6 million from $63.7
million in the year-ago quarter.
The Asian segment’s revenue increased 21.0% to $66.8 million from
$55.3 million in the year-ago quarter. Operating income slipped 17%
to $4.0 million compared with $4.8 million.
Net revenue in the North American Wholesale segment slipped 5.0% to
$41.6 million in the quarter from $43.8 million last year.
Operating income plunged 27% to $7.7 million from $10.5
million.
Other Financial Update
As on July 28, 2012, Guess? had $271.9 million of cash and cash
equivalents compared with $430.2 million in the prior-year
quarter.
Operating activities provided $44.6 million of cash, compared with
$88.4 million a year ago. During the second quarter, the company
spent $140.1 million to repurchase 5.0 million shares of its common
stock.
The Way Forward
Management is planning measures to
generate stronger results in North America.
Net revenue is expected to be in the range of $620 million and $630
million in the third quarter and between $2.62 billion and $2.65
billion for fiscal 2013.
The company expects third quarter fiscal 2013 earnings at 42 cents
to 46 cents. For fiscal 2013, the company expects EPS in the range
of $2.15 to $2.30. The guidance was much lower than the Zacks
Consensus estimate of 64 cents for the third quarter and at $2.59
for fiscal 2013.
While operating margin is expected to be between 9.0% and 9.5% for
the third quarter, it is expected to between 10.5% and 11.0% for
fiscal 2013.
Conclusion
Currently, Guess? which competes with companies like
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) and Gap
Inc. (GAP) holds a Zacks #3 Rank, implying a short-term
Hold rating. On a long-term basis, we maintain a ‘Neutral’
recommendation on the stock
ABERCROMBIE (ANF): Free Stock Analysis Report
(GAP): ETF Research Reports
GUESS INC (GES): Free Stock Analysis Report
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