(Adds details from Fitch Ratings)
By Tess Stynes
U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to improve 4.5% to 5.5%
this year, thanks to pent-up demand, as financial uncertainties
ease and consumers are drawn to updated versions of popular game
systems, according to Moody's Investors Service.
The ratings firm said the projected increase in U.S. retail
sales for the November-December holiday shopping season this year
compares with growth of 3.8% a year earlier.
Moody's noted that its holiday sales forecast exceeds the
National Retail Federation's projection for an increase of 3.9% and
the International Council of Shopping Centers' chain-store sales
projection for growth of 2%.
Separately, peer Fitch Ratings said it expects 2013 holiday
sales will improve by 3% to 4%. The firm also projected retail
sales growth in the 4% range for next year--a modest increase over
its expectations for 2013--reflecting slight improvements in
employment and inflation-adjusted wages. The view assumes
same-store sales growth of 2% to 3%.
So far this year, retail sales and earnings are on track with
the forecasts by Moody's. While sales growth has been near the
lower end of the firm's view for growth of 3% to 5%, earnings
growth has been in line with its estimated range between 3.5% and
4.5% as most retailers manage inventory conservatively and focus on
cost controls.
"While weak sales in October this year likely reflected concerns
about the government shutdown, month-over-month growth in spending
on electronics, furniture and sporting goods was strong, which may
indicate that consumers have begun to release pent-up demand,"
Moody's analyst Michael Zuccaro said.
Recently introduced game systems such as Sony Corp.'s (SNE,
6758.TO) Playstation 4 and Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Xbox One, along
with Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) iPhone 5c and 5s, should boost sales for
retailers like Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY), Toys "R" Us Inc. and
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), according to Moody's.
Write to Tess Stynes at tess.stynes@wsj.com
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