Consumer Staples Sector Draws More Caution From Investors
March 03 2009 - 11:01AM
Dow Jones News
After offering some sanctuary in last year's falling market, the
consumer staples sector is losing some of its sheen as investors
become more cautious on companies that make daily goods like
shampoos and snacks.
The Standard & Poor's consumer staples index - whose members
include Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) - is still outperforming the
broader S&P 500, but by a far narrower margin than it did last
year. Fears of competition from private-label brands, slower growth
in emerging markets, fluctuating currencies and concerns that the
big brands may have to cut their prices are putting a damper on the
consumer staples group.
"They were such a safe haven last year. They are due for a rest
this year," said David Klaskin, chief investment officer of Oak
Ridge Investments. His firm is staying underweight on larger
consumer staples stocks, but still likes smaller companies like
Church & Dwight Co. (CHD), which has a limited exposure to
overseas market and a strong position for consumer products like
pregnancy tests.
Inventors appear be cautious on some of the largest, most
defensive stocks.
In a recent note to clients, Sanford Bernstein analyst Ali
Dibadj noted that within the consumer staples group, top investors
have been increasing their holdings in more cyclical stocks, or
those that are most susceptible to economic volatility.
He said three companies considered the most cyclical names in
his group - cosmetics maker Estee Lauder Cos. (EL), direct seller
Avon Products Inc. (AVP) and battery maker Energizer Holdings Inc.
(ENR) - were found to have the top-20 holders increasing their
share holdings between October and December.
By contrast stocks like Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark
Corp. (KMB), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) and Clorox Co. (CLX) that
are generally considered the most defensive names tended to have
top holders decrease their share counts in the sector, he said.
"This is a reversal from trends seen between June and September,
and appears to indicate that investors were beginning to turn their
focus toward the more discretionary names that had underperformed
the market between October and December," Dibadj said.
The recent Consumer Analyst Group of New York conference, the
largest annual meeting for the industry, highlighted many of the
pressures facing the consumer makers.
"I think especially after CAGNY, after the issues the companies
raised, people are sharpening their pencils when they look at this
group," said Crisman Boggan, an analyst at MTB Investment Advisors.
"I don't think people are running from the group but they are
investigating the names with a lot more scrutiny." Most of MTB's
funds are currently underweight on consumer staples.
Cash May Be A Better Option
Brian Rauscher, director of portfolio strategy at Brown Brothers
Harriman, says he upgraded staples in the first quarter of 2006 and
had the sector "above benchmark" for three years. Rauscher now
believes that holding cash may be a more attractive option than
investing new money in the staples sector.
"It doesn't mean they start to underperform. But it is very late
in this trade," he said. Rauscher noted that the sector is no
longer outperforming at the same pace that it previously had been.
"If you look at it on a relative change basis it looks like they
are losing momentum," he said.
In 2008, the S&P 500 fell 38% while the consumer staples
index lost just 18%. So far this year the S&P 500 is down 22%
compared with a 17% loss for staples.
Caution has crept in even on necessities like food. Stifel
Nicolaus analyst Chris Growe wrote in a note to investors that he
is sticking with a neutral bias toward the food industry.
"The defensive characteristics of the group suggest a premium to
the market is in order, but as we stand now a full 12 months into
the recession we do not believe investors will push valuations up
much from the current level," Growe said. "Food stocks tend to
underperform the S&P 500 for the first six months into a
recovery."
-By Anjali Cordeiro, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2408;
anjali.cordeiro@dowjones.com