Genentech-Roche Deal Shows Attraction Of Biotech Assets
March 13 2009 - 7:45AM
Dow Jones News
Genentech Inc.'s (DNA) ability to leverage a higher price tag
from Roche Holding AG (RHHBY) in an otherwise downtrodden market
demonstrates the attractiveness of biotech assets, especially for
the right buyer.
However, it remains to be seen if the deal - and its hefty
valuation - will prompt additional large biotech acquisitions, even
at a time when the health-care industry is remaking itself in the
face of government-led changes. In the mean time, smaller and
cheaper biotech purchases remain more likely.
Biotech drugs are attractive because they have better margins
generally and, currently, no method for generic threat. In
addition, biotech companies have unique expertise and facilities,
making it tough for others to invade their turf.
As a result, the more successful biotech companies carry large
market caps and still-healthy valuations. The industry's advantages
are likely why investors may be leaving Genentech shares in the
hands of arbitrage traders and putting their money to work in other
areas of sector, prompting a 5.6% gain in the Amex Biotechnology
Index.
Traditional pharmaceutical companies, most of which are ailing
from poor pipelines and generic competition, are turning
increasingly to biotech drugs; however, most of Big Pharma's moves
have been limited to licensing agreements or acquisitions of
smaller biotech companies.
Roche's large purchase of Genentech goes against that trend, but
the Swiss giant had a discernible advantage - it already owned 56%
of Genentech. That enabled Roche to buy the rest of Genentech for
"only" $46.8 billion.
If Roche had to buy all the shares outstanding, the total
purchase price would have been around $100 billion, assuming it
would have been able to get Genentech to agree to $95 a share
without having the advantage of already being the majority
owner.
While the price of $95 a share offers only a 16% premium to
Genentech's price before Roche's initial July offer, it commands a
price-to-earnings multiple of about 25 times the South San
Franscisco-based company's projected 2009 earnings. In comparison,
biotech bellweathers Amgen Inc. (AMGN), Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) and
Genzyme Corp. (GENZ) trade at between 10.5 and 12 times 2009
earnings estimates.
In addition, Roche's willingness to raise its original offer by
6.7% - over a time frame in which the S&P 500 fell 43% and the
Amex Biotechnology Index lost 30% - indicates the value biotechs
maintain.
Because of Genentech's strong price tag, biotech stocks rose
Thursday. One of the biggest gainers being Celgene Corp. (CELG), up
12% to $47.17. Celgene has strong products in the blood-cancer drug
Revlimid and the blood-disorder treatment Vidaza, and an intriguing
pipeline.
Despite its attractive portfolio, Celgene also comes with
significant hurdle - its market cap of $21.6 billion. That means a
deal with a 40% premium, not uncommon in biotech acquisitions,
would put the price tag at $30 billion. A deal at half the premium
still would be about $26 billion.
That's a lot for any buyer to swallow and why Big Pharma, which
can afford such deals, has preferred more modest biotech deals,
such as AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) buying MedImmune for $15.6 billion or
Eli Lilly & Co.'s (LLY) $6.5 billion acquisition of Imclone
Systems Inc.
When Big Pharma is ready to spend big, they have stayed within
the family, such as Pfizer Inc. (PFE)/Wyeth (WYE) and Merck &
Co. (MRK)/Schering-Plough Corp. (SGP). In those cases, the
acquiring company can leverage more natural synergies and big job
cuts to produce profits from the deal faster.
Nonetheless, interest in acquiring biotech assets appears to be
rising. Last year, according to Dealogic, the amount spent
purchasing biomedical and genetic companies totaled $68.4 billion,
matching the amount spent on the group during the decade's first
eight years and roughly equal to the total spent on pharmaceutical
purchases, marking the first year those figures were on similar
levels.
Analysts say that among large biotechs, the most likely takeover
targets are Amgen, which has a market cap of $51 billion, or, more
reasonably priced, Biogen and its $14.5 billion market cap.
The busier biotech market is likely to be for smaller companies
suffering from depressed values and the difficult finding
environment. Cowen & Co analyst Eric Schmidt names Acorda
Therapeutics Inc. (ACOR), Cougar Biotechnology Inc. (CGRB) and
Cadence Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CADX) as possible targets because
they offer products in late-stage development and the buyer may
have some negotiating leverage.
"Those are clearly the types of companies that large pharma and
biotech have found attractive in the past," he said.
-Thomas Gryta, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2053;
thomas.gryta@dowjones.com