Economic Crisis Likely To Spur Consolidation Among REITs
April 13 2009 - 1:45PM
Dow Jones News
The economic crisis has created a survival-of-the-fittest
environment for U.S. real-estate investment trusts.
With many REITs trading at distressed levels amid a continuing
credit crunch, experts say the stage is being set for merger and
acquisition plays with stronger companies taking over weaker
rivals.
"I do think that M&A activity will begin to accelerate this
year," particularly if interest rates stay low, said Jay Leupp, a
portfolio manager for Grubb & Ellis AGA Realty Income Fund,
adding that he expects stock-for-stock mergers.
"For healthy REITs (with) higher earnings multiples, the
acquisition of...companies with very low earnings multiples is
extremely accretive," from an earnings and asset-value standpoint,
Leupp said.
In a sign that a cycle of consolidation may be afoot, shopping
center REIT Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust (RPT) recently
announced that it "received indications of interest" from third
parties, including Equity One Inc. (EQY). The companies are trading
roughly at $9 and $14 a share, respectively.
Most experts say the companies most ripe for acquisition are
trading below $5 a share, including debt-laden General Growth
Properties Inc. (GGP). Flirting with bankruptcy, the mall operator
has long been mentioned as an acquisition target of rivals Simon
Property Group Inc. (SPG), the largest U.S. REIT, and Westfield
Group Australia (WFGPY).
Leupp noted that over 30% of REITs are trading below $5. "That's
the most ever," he said.
Those distressed share prices run across all sectors. For
instance, shopping-center REIT Developers Diversified Realty Corp.
(DDR) is trading around $3 a share, while highly levered office
property developer Maguire Properties, Inc. (MPG) is at roughly
$1.50. Lodging REIT FelCor Lodging Trust Inc. (FCH) traded at $1.40
in recent activity.
The are currently 135 public REITs, which saw a boom during the
1990s as investors thirsted for yield. The relatively large number
of public REITs has some experts thinking the market is
oversaturated.
"There are way too many REITs. We don't need all of the REITs
that we have," said Rich Moore, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
"There will be some obvious winners and obvious losers because of
this whole credit crisis."
REITs, which own about $600 billion of commercial real-estate
assets, were established in the 1960s to give individuals an easy
way to invest in income-producing real estate. Such companies
typically focus on distinct areas of property, such as offices,
retail or apartments.
Indeed, if credit markets don't thaw soon with the help of
federal aid initiatives like the Treasury's Term Asset-Backed
Securities Loan Facility program, or TALF, some companies will be
hard-pressed to survive if they can't refinance their debt. The
outlook gets more dire in 2011 when $500 billion of commercial
real-estate maturities come due, according to a report from the
National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, citing data
it compiled from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Securities and
Exchange Commission filings.
As credit remains tight, the market has been heartened by the
ability of some REITs to successfully sell equity, including Simon
Property, Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM) and ProLogis (PLD). Selling
equity is seen as an effective tool for strong companies to raise
funds to help pay down hefty debt while keeping balance-sheet
pressures at bay.
The year "2011 will become more of an issue I believe in the
fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year,"
said Grubb & Ellis' Leupp. "I don't think many companies are
effectively going to be able to extend (2011) maturities at this
point."
However, he said it's too early to tell how the scenario will
play out.
-By A.D. Pruitt, Dow Jones Newswires, 201-938-2269,
angela.pruitt@dowjones.com