2nd UPDATE: Publicis Sees Better 4Q, Return To Growth In '10
October 27 2009 - 7:05AM
Dow Jones News
The Chief Executive of French advertising company Publicis
Groupe SA (PUB.FR) Tuesday predicted that the company would start
growing organic revenues by the middle of next year because the
advertising markets have started a gradual recovery.
The global advertising market has slumped since the summer of
2008 as the world's major advertisers have cut spending in response
to the credit crunch and economic downturn. However, Publicis CEO
Maurice Levy reiterated that the market hit a bottom in June and a
third quarter recovery should continue into the fourth quarter and
beyond.
"The advertising market has stopped deteriorating during the
summer and a slow and gradual recovery is underway," Levy told
reporters.
The company is looking for acquisition targets to continue
growth in China, as well as opportunities to strengthen its
position in India, he added.
Levy has been one of the first industry executives to call the
recovery of the advertising market. While Omnicom Group Inc.(OMC)'
Chief executive John Wren last week said that client spending is
showing signs of stability, other advertising executives, such as
WPP PLC's (WPP.LN) Martin Sorrell and Havas' (HAV.FR) CEO Fernando
Rodes Vila have been reticent in forecasting a return to
growth.
Paris-based Publicis, the owner of Saatchi and Saatchi, Tuesday
reported a 7.4% drop in third-quarter organic revenue, which
excludes the impact of any acquisitions and disposals and currency
moves. The figure was an improvement on the 8.6% decline in the
second quarter.
Levy said Publicis should outperform the expected 10% decline in
the global advertising market in 2009, and could post organic
growth for the whole of 2010 once it returns to growth around the
middle of next year.
Publicis agency ZenithOptimedia last week forecast that global
advertising spend would return to 0.5% growth in 2010.
For the three months ended Sept. 30, Publicis' revenue was
EUR1.05 billion, down from EUR1.11 billion in the same period last
year but in line with an average EUR1.05 billion forecast by five
analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.
Revenues continued to tumble across all regions, with the
sharpest drops in Europe and Asia Pacific, where Chinese growth
could not offset sharp declines in Japan, South Korea and
Australia.
Still, analysts said Publicis' third-quarter performance
confirms a rebound in activity.
"What's positive is that pretty much all regions, except
Asia-Pacific, improved, and that the group again outperformed peers
in the U.S.," Exane BNP Paribas analyst Charles Bedouelle said. He
rates Publicis outperform.
Despite the tough market conditions, Publicis, whose clients
include General Motors Co. and French car maker Renault (RNO.FR),
said it won new business worth $4.8 billion in the first nine
months of the year, which analysts say should help boost organic
revenue growth next year.
"What has been unusual in this crisis is that advertisers are
not afraid to change advertising agencies in a low cycle," Levy
said.
Still, Publicis will continue to cut costs to preserve its
margin, which should not drop more than 200 basis points this year,
Levy said. He said in 2011, the group's operating margin should be
back in the region of the 16.7% posted in both 2007 and 2008.
At 1055 GMT, Publicis shares traded up 1.6% to EUR27.91. The
stock has gained about 49% since the start of the year as analysts
believe the group is well-positioned to emerge stronger from the
crisis than some competitors, notably due to its position in
digital advertising.
Smaller French rival Havas last week posted a steeper-than
expected 9.3% drop in third-quarter organic revenue. WPP, the
world's largest marketing company by revenue, reports Friday.
-By Ruth Bender, Dow Jones Newswires; +33 1 40 17 17 54;
ruth.bender@dowjones.com