UK/Euro Financial Market Daily Morning Briefing 20-03-2007

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London shares flat in early deals; inflation caution offsets M&A activity
 
UK blue chips were flat in early deals, losing opening gains as caution ahead of key UK inflation data offset further M&A inspired gains in banking issues after Barclays confirmation of bid talks with ABN Amro, dealers said.
   
At 9.12 am, the FTSE 100 index was 2.2 points lower at 6,187.4, while the broader FTSE indices were also lower.
   
Overnight, Wall Street closed higher as it joined overseas markets in riding a wave of merger news to bounce back from a losing week.
   
The DJIA rose 115.8 points to 12,226.20, the S&P 500 index increased 15.11 points to 1,402.06 and the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 21.75 to 2,394.41.
   
Asia also followed higher, the Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index ended 153.65 points higher at 17,163.20, while the Hong Kong's Hang Seng index closed up 90.16 points or 0.47 pct at 19,356.90.
   
Oil prices rebounded in Asian trading hours as an appetite for risk returned after equities market around the world showed signs of shaking off their recent nervousness.
   
Back in London, on the macro front inflation figures will be the highlight of today's UK data releases.
   
UK headline annual CPI inflation is expected to edge down slightly to 2.6 pct in February from 2.7 pct, but would still remain well above the Bank of England's 2.0 pct target, figures are set to show.
   
In London, banking issues featured heavily on the upside again on sector consolidation hopes.
   
Barclays was 11-1/2 pence higher at 688-1/2 after issuing a statement last night where it confirmed that it was in 'preliminary talks' with ABN Amro concerning a potential combination of the two banks.

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In an initial reaction, Goldman Sachs thought the deal would be a strong strategic fit.
   
Peer HBOS was up 15 at 1,050, while Lloyds TSB ticked up 7-1/2 to 555-1/2.
   
Bid excitement also surrounded insurer Prudential again, up 23-1/2 pence at 731-1/2 amid rumours AIG of the US could offer 850 pence a share for the firm.
   
Meanwhile ICAP surged 9-3/4 pence to 502-3/4 on talk the inter-dealer broker could be subject to a 700 pence per share bid.
   
A London-based sales trader said rumours of a bid have surfaced over talk  CEO Michael Spencer, who owns 21.7 pct of the group, is looking to spend more  time with the Conservative Party and is keen to offload the stake.
   
Also on the upside, Imperial Chemical Industries was 5-1/2 pence higher at 488-1/4 after Citigroup upgraded the group to 'buy' from 'hold' as part of a review of the Global Paints & Coatings sector, which the broker believes is now "ripe for consolidation".
   
But on the downside, Friends Provident was under pressure, falling 5-1/4 pence to 196-3/4 making it the top faller after the life insurer's full-year pretax profit came in shy of expectations.
   
The group reported underlying pretax profit for the year of 509 mln stg on an European Embedded Value Basis, down from 524 mln stg the previous year.
   
The result was marginally lower than analysts' expectations of 513 mln stg.
   
Elsewhere food producer Tate & Lyle lost 7 to 537 following German peer Suedzucker's profit warning today.
   
Unilever was also down 18 at 1,489 and Associated British Foods 9 lower at 839-1/2 in reaction to the warning. 
   
Among the midcaps, Bluebay Asset Management was 5-1/2 higher at 401 after the group nearly doubled profit in the first half, prompting Citigroup to repeat its 'buy' stance.

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BlueBay Asset Management reported a 91 pct rise in pretax profit for the  first half and said its assets under management more than doubled, due to a  strong investment performance and growing demand from institutional investors.
   
Also higher were the UK house builders George Wimpey and Bellway up 10 at 594 and 35 at 1,497 respectively after Merrill Lunch upgraded the pair to 'buy' after strong evidence of a recovery in UK margins.
   
On the midcap downside, First Choice Holidays was the top faller, easing 9-1/4 to 298-3/4 on profit taking after the group spiked following the confirmation it would merge with TUI.
   
Meanwhile, Hochschild Mining fell back 10 to 335 after lower than expected results with adjusted EBITDA increasing to 107.6 mln usd, from 70.7 mln usd in 2005. Goldman Sachs forecast EBITDA of 115 mln usd.

US Summary

For a summary of US stocks at yesterday's close of trade, click here

UK Diary of Events

For a diary of key financial and corporate events today, click here

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PARIS - Market data at 10.05 am:

Major indices:
   
CAC-40 down 13.66 or 0.25 pct at 5,445.29
SBF-80 down 8.87 or 0.13 pct at 6,857.66
SBF-120 down 11.09 or 0.28 pct at 3,997.61

CAC-40 volume: 700 mln eur
14 CAC-40 stocks up
24 CAC-40 stocks down
2 CAC-40 stocks unchanged

Major gainers:
   
Vivendi up 0.36 or 1.23 pct at 29.62, adding to string of gains

EDF up 0.55 or 0.95 pct at 58.40

Michelin up 0.50 or 0.66 pct at 76.53

Rallye up 0.31 or 0.64 pct at 48.81, JP Morgan starts at 'overweight' with 58 eur target

Major losers:
   
Carrefour down 0.78 or 1.4 pct at 54.99; stock is still up more than 4 pct on the week; FT reports unnamed sources as saying Halley family seeking additional seat on board
   
Alcatel-Lucent down 0.12 or 1.34 pct at 8.83
   
Saint-Gobain down 0.92 or 1.92 pct at 70.18
   
Dexia down 0.21 or 0.96 pct at 21.66, stock gained more than 6 pct yesterday amid speculation surrounding Barclays/ABN Amro merger talks

Most active stocks:
   
Total down 0.39 or 0.78 pct at 49.40 in 80 mln eur
   
Vivendi in 55 mln
   
BNP Paribas in 50 mln

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Oil up as market expects another fall in US gasoline stocks

LONDON - Oil edged higher as the market expects gasoline stocks to have fallen last week in US data, to be released tomorrow.
   
Prices also rebounded as stronger equity markets in Asia, the US and the UK boosted sentiment and prompted traders to invest in riskier assets.
   
Investors had shied away from oil and other commodities amid weaker stock markets which slumped at the end of February. Some also liquidated their positions in a bid to raise cash to cope with the steep equity-market declines.
   
At 9.27 am, London Brent crude for May delivery was up 52 cents to 61.04 usd per barrel.
   
New York crude for April delivery, which expires today, was up 31 cents at 56.90 usd per barrel, having settled at 56.59 usd yesterday - the lowest close of the year. The more active May contract was up 46 cents at 60.17 usd.
   
"US inventory is falling fast back to seasonal levels," said Barclays Capital analyst, Kevin Norrish. He added gasoline stocks will have declined last week because "US demand is growing very healthily," and there have been "some problems with refineries."
   
Further, traders are looking ahead to the US driving season, which begins May 31. Distillates are becoming a less important indicator as the the weather begins to improve and heating oil demand drops, while gasoline is more in focus as families take to the roads for holidays within the country.
   
A preliminary survey of analysts polled by AFX News showed gasoline and crude oil stocks will have declined in the week to March 16, while distillates rose very slightly.

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London Metal Exchange inventory as of Tuesday, Mar 20

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