-- DBS CEO warns central-bank easing could spur disruptive
capital inflows into Asia.
-- Its CIO tips buying the Australian dollar if it dips to
US$0.96.
-- He also says crude oil looks very good value at current
levels.
(Adds comments on Danamon, currencies and oil starting from the
fifth paragraph.)
By Natasha Brereton-Fukui
SINGAPORE--DBS Group Holdings Ltd. (D05.SG) Chief Executive
Officer Piyush Gupta said Thursday that he expects western central
banks to ease policy further in the near future, causing capital
inflows into Asia and potentially volatility in regional asset
prices.
Addressing clients in Singapore, Mr. Gupta said he saw quite a
high likelihood of the U.S. Federal Reserve implementing another
round of stimulus in the next couple of weeks, given recent
lacklustre data.
"If there's monetary policy easing in Europe or in the U.S., as
I think there will be, then you will see again in Asia a whole
flood of money coming in like what happened last year in July and
August," Mr. Gupta said.
"When a lot of money flows into Asia, that plays havoc with
currency rates and interest rates. And therefore, there is a case
to expect to see volatility in currency rates and interest rates on
the back of easing policy in the West," he said.
In April, DBS announced a $7.3 billion acquisition of
Indonesia's PT Bank Danamon (BDMN.JK), which would give the
Singaporean banking group a majority stake. But it remains unclear
whether the deal will proceed, given planned changes to Indonesian
bank-ownership rules.
Late last month, a senior official at Indonesia's central bank
said that some local and foreign banks would still be allowed to
own up to 99% of an Indonesian lender if they fulfilled certain
requirements--contrary to some indications that 40% would be the
limit.
Mr. Gupta didn't raise the matter in his remarks. Asked later
whether DBS would be open to making any concessions to clinch the
deal, he said merely that DBS had no inputs on Danamon at this
stage.
At the same event, DBS Chief Investment Officer Lim Say Boon
said it was hard to see any directional trend among major
currencies, and that he would look to those currencies leveraged
off Asia ex-Japan and China, such as the Australian dollar, for
strength.
"Fair enough, the Aussie at $1.03...is probably too expensive,
it's probably going to correct again as equities markets start
correcting again," he said. The currency's correlation with China's
purchasing managers' index could lead it lower to $0.96 over the
next few months, but that would be "very good value," he said,
tipping it to appreciate after that.
He also said he saw the euro as being in a broad downtrend
channel. Any rebound in the currency would be likely to stop around
$1.28, with $1.30 being the "absolute maximum" if the rally was
particularly exuberant. But he said it was then likely to pull back
toward $1.20 over the next three to six months, and could fall
below that level over a 12-month period.
Mr. Lim said he viewed crude oil as being "very good value" at
current levels--although it could correct a little further when
risk aversion returns--having seemingly priced in a slowdown in
China and recession in the euro zone, but not risks posed by
Iran.
Write to Natasha Brereton-Fukui at
natasha.brereton-fukui@dowjones.com