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15 minutes ago
Gold Triggers Weekly Breakdown
By: Bruce Powers | June 26, 2024
• Gold's bearish flag and shooting star patterns suggest a likely drop below the recent swing low of 2,287, with key support levels at risk.
Gold triggered a bearish flag on the daily chart today and a shooting star on the weekly chart. The bear trend patterns point to a likely drop to below the recent swing low at 2,287. Previous support around the prior swing low from May 3 will likely follow and is at risk of being broken to the downside. At the time of this writing gold has reached a high of 2,324 today and a low of 2,294. But trading continues near the lows of the day and the daily low may be lower before today’s close.
Initial Downside Target at 2,262
Today’s decline also opens the possibility that gold reaches the downside target of 2,262. Falling to that price level will complete a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend begun from the February swing low. Interestingly, the 20-Week MA aligns with support of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, a more significant target zone lies lower near the uptrend line.
That line is the bottom of a rising parallel trend channel. Gold is in the process of failing to hold strength near resistance at the top of the rising channel. Once resistance is seen at one side of the channel, a reversal back to the other side becomes possible. Therefore, if a drop below 2,277 occurs, a lower support zone starting around 2,211 and including the price area of the uptrend line is next on the agenda. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement completes there.
Bearish Moving Average Crossover Provided a Clue
The recent bearish crossover of the 20-Day MA falling below the 50-Day further confirms weakness and the bear trend. Moreover, a weekly bearish reversal triggered today, and it is supportive of a deeper retracement to test lower support levels. Unless there is a relatively rapid recovery to the upside, gold is facing at least one to two weeks of down to sideways price action. Either way, a rally above the 50-Day line at 2,340 would be the first sign of strength. However, a rise above the recent interim swing high of 2,369 would be needed for a bullish reversal signal at this point.
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24 hours ago
Gold Tests Trendline Support Amid Bearish Flag Pattern
By: Bruce Powers | June 25, 2024
• Gold tests trendline support at 2,315, forming a potential bear flag pattern, with critical levels indicating possible further declines if breached.
Gold further rolls out a potential bear flag pattern with another test of trendline support at the day’s low of 2,315. The bearish setup follows a sharp one-day decline on June 7 that reached a low of 2,287. That drop began a second wave down for the correction. A fifth wave down is possible if the low price on June 7 is broken to the downside. An initial breakdown signal will occur a little below today’s low, which is almost touching the line. However, there is also a weekly price level to watch.
Last Week’s Bearish Candle is a Risk
Last week ended with a bearish weekly candlestick pattern in gold. Therefore, a weekly bearish signal is triggered on a drop below last week’s low of 2,307. Since it would be a weekly signal, the possibility of a subsequent drop below 2,287 greatly increases if that happens. Nevertheless, the most recent swing low is at 2,277 from May 3. That swing low is part of the price structure for the rising trend. If it fails to hold as support on a deeper pullback, a drop below it triggers the breakdown from a topping formation.
First Lower Target is 2,252
The first target below the May 3 swing low starts around 2,252. That price would complete a falling ABCD pattern and is shown on the chart as the end of wave 5 of the decline. Regardless, there is a potentially more significant price zone a little lower starting from around 2,211. Notice that an internal uptrend line converges with the price zone as well. That line is parallel to the top internal trend channel line. It acted as resistance during each of the two failed attempts to break out and continue to rally into higher prices.
Bull Breakout on Break Above 2,369
Alternatively, an upside breakout is not indicated until there is a rise above last week’s high of 2,369. Until then, if gold does not break down, it may further chop around within the developing rising flag consolidation pattern. Once that happens the prior swing high around 2,388 is next on the agenda followed by an attempt to continue into new record highs for gold.
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4 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 22, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23312 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23351 and support forming below at 23202. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of June 3rd, which has been a move of 3.402%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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5 days ago
Gold Bearish Sentiment Grows Amid Failed Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | June 21, 2024
• Gold’s failed breakout above the 50-Day MA puts it at risk of further declines, testing key support levels at 2,307.
Gold is at risk of failing yesterday’s bullish breakout above the 50-Day MA and downtrend line. Friday’s price action is set to end with an outside day. And, at the time of this writing gold continues to trade bearish, below yesterday’s low of 2,328, and below three trendlines plus the 50-Day MA. Each has now failed to hold as support during today’s pullback. This is not bullish behavior and puts recent lows at risk of being tested as support again, if not broken.
Bearish Weekly and Daily Signal Below 2,307
This week’ slow of 2,307 can be seen as a price level with some significance. Being a weekly low, a drop below it will signal a bearish continuation in the weekly time frame. Larger time frame patterns tend to influence lower time frame patterns. That is the fractal nature of the financial markets. Therefore, the higher time frame can take priority relative to a trader’s time horizon.
Daily Bear Flag
A drop below 2,307 on the weekly chart can be seen on the daily chart as a decline below the short rising trendline across support of recent daily lows. On the daily time frame the price action of the past two weeks has taken the form of a small bear flag. So, a drop below last week’s low would provide a bearish signal for both time frames, the daily and the weekly. It should also be noted that this week is on track to end with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Although it is not occurring at the top of a trend it still provides a sign of short-term bearish sentiment.
Rally Above 2,370 Needed for the Bulls
There is not much set up yet on the chart for bullish indications other than a breakout above today’s high of 2,370. Since the first breakout attempt is already showing weakness, a continuation of the consolidation phase may continue before much follow through occurs, either up or down. Nonetheless, if natural gas breaks out above this week’s high of 2,369 next week, it could continue to see an acceleration in price towards the most recent record high of 2,450.
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6 days ago
Gold Bullish Breakout Signals Potential Upside Rally
By: Bruce Powers | June 20, 2024
• Gold breaks out above 50-Day MA and downtrend line, signaling potential for further gains and bullish continuation.
Gold broke out to the upside on Thursday, reclaiming the 50-Day MA above 2,343 and triggering a breakout of the downtrend line. A subsequent daily close above each will confirm strength of the breakout. Also, watch where the day ends within the day’s range of 2,328 and 2,365. Moreover, today’s close will likely exceed the top trend channel line, which has marked an area of support or resistance since a bullish breakout above the line first triggered in early-April. Further, a bullish weekly reversal was triggered above last week’s high of 2,342.
Long-Term Bullish
The larger developing pattern in gold is the bullish breakout of a rising trend channel following a multi-year base breakout in early-March. The longer the base the greater the potential bullish move that follows. Gold gave a preview during the rally starting from the February 15 swing low that accelerated following the February 29 breakout of a symmetrical triangle trend continuation pattern. The advance from the swing low to the 2,450-record high from a month ago was 465.80 points or 23.5%. For reference, the four previous upswings were 17.9% and 28.8%, respectively.
Second Breakout May Hold
A second channel breakout attempt triggered today. Sometimes, a second breakout entry can prove to be more promising. Moreover, if the 2,287-swing low continues to hold as support then gold will have completed a relatively shallow retracement. Notice that the lows of recent price action remained near the top channel line, also a sign of strength. But it needed today’s rally first to determine whether a low has been reached. The area around the line retained support.
Retracement Should Be Complete
If today’s advance is followed by further strengthening, the retracement is likely complete. A rise above the most recent swing high of 2,388 will further confirm strength and a bullish reversal following the correction. It is the next more significant price level that needs to be exceeded. There are several initial targets heading into new record highs. For now, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the recent retracement will be the most likely near-term initial upside target.
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7 days ago
Gold Volatility Looms as Pennant Pattern Develops
By: Bruce Powers | June 19, 2024
• With gold trading in a narrow range, a breakout above 2,335 or below 2,296 could signal the next significant move.
Gold traded in a narrow range on Wednesday with a high of 2,335 and a low of 2,324. The high took the price of gold above the top boundary line of a potential bearish pennant pattern (small symmetrical triangle) briefly before a pullback into the consolidation range. Although the 20-Day was also exceeded briefly, resistance was seen at a top rising trend channel line. The top of the pattern at 2,342 is marked by resistance of the 50-Day MA (2,344) and the downtrend line.
Bullish Above 2,335
A decisive breakout above 2,335 will provide the next sign of strength that may give gold a chance to keep rising. Last week’s high of 2,388 is also critical as a move above it would trigger a weekly breakout and a rise above the most recent interim daily swing high. Gold began an attempt to breakout from the rising parallel trend channel in early April, which eventually failed with the decline below the line on June 7. It has since traded below the line, putting it at risk of a deeper retracement than what has been seen currently. A second upside breakout of the channel has a chance to keep going if momentum can be maintained once triggered.
Bearish Below 2,296
The bearish pennant will trigger with a drop below its lower boundary line, but the recent minor low of 2,296 can be used as a clearer signal. Also, a drop below the three-week low of 2,287 will confirm the breakdown.
Possible Double Inside Week
Unless gold can rally above last week’s high of 2,342 before the end of this week, it is on track to complete the week as an inside week. As it stands now gold has an inside week setting up this week and an inside week last week. It shows price contraction, which is typically followed by a spike in volatility. Which direction it heads in will be signaled by a breakout of the pennant pattern. The pennant would indicate that a breakdown is more likely, however, that would change if support continued to hold and is followed by a bullish breakout instead.
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2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 15, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 233.9k, down 3.4k.
Last Friday, after hugging the average for 10 consecutive sessions, gold sliced through the 50-day. This week, it remained under the average in all five sessions, with attempts to reclaim in on Wednesday unsuccessful. That said, the metal ($2,349/ounce) is not that far away from the average at $2,358, and there is room to rally on the daily. For this, defense of $2,300 is a must for gold bugs. Else, the weekly can take over.
Gold has come a long way since last October when it ticked $1,824 (was $1,996 this February). It came under pressure after it set a new high of $2,454 on May 20th.
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2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 15, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23491 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Immediately, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23373 and overhead resistance forming above at 23542. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of June 3rd, which has been a move of 2.369%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23263. Additional support is to be found at 23006. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Faces Key Resistance at 50-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | June 14, 2024
• Gold consolidates at 2,345, facing resistance and potential bearish indicators, with key support levels crucial for maintaining the current uptrend price structure.
Gold further consolidated on Friday, testing resistance around the 50-Day MA, which is currently at 2,345. The 20-Day MA converged with the 50-Day line today and marks the same price area. A bearish sign will be indicated if the 20-Day line crosses below the 50-Day. Gold is sandwiched between the moving averages at the top and last week’s low of 2,287 at the bottom of a five-day price range.
Resistance Zone from 2,345 to 2,350
Another price area to keep an eye on for resistance is a little above the 50-Day MA at 2,350. That price completes an initial target for a small rising ABCD pattern. And it is contained within last Friday’s wide price range, which by itself influences choppy price action. Last Friday’s high of 2,388 began with a bullish breakout but ended with a failed breakout and a bearish close. Therefore, given the current price patterns in gold, it looks like a decisive rally above 2,388 would be needed to sustain a bull reversal into new record highs. Otherwise, support remains at risk of being broken to the downside.
Weakness Likely Below 2,301
Weakness would next be indicated on a drop below today’s low of 2,301 and further confirmed on a decline below last week’s low of 2,287. Regardless, the recent swing low of 2,277 cannot be ignored. It defines the price structure of the uptrend and is a key price level to watch for support. If it is approached a third time it seems likely to give way to lower prices. Certainly, characteristics of the trend can change, but a drop below it would be considered bearish and provide a clearer sign that sellers were in charge.
Lower Pivots Start With 2,252
Downside pivots are at 2,252, 2,211, and 2,195. The lower price level takes on greater importance given its nearby neighbor, the uptrend line. Also, the trendline takes on greater significance since it would follow a successful test of resistance around the top line of a parallel trend channel most recently. Once price reverses from resistance in a chart pattern it tends to at least attempt if not reach the other side of the pattern. For gold that dynamic would be complete if it reaches the price area of the uptrend line.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Continues to See Pressure to The Upside
By: Christopher Lewis | June 14, 2024
• The gold market continues to see a lot of noise, as the G7 is now threatening Chinese banks that deal with Russian interests. Because of this, the world is waiting for a further escalation of geopolitical tensions.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
Gold rallied quite nicely during the early hours on Friday as the $2,300 level has offered a significant support level. That being said, I think we’ve got a situation where given enough time, we probably recover completely. And the shot higher on Friday was more or less based on the G7 threatening Chinese banks that they are going to cut them off from the financial system if they deal with Russia. The reality is we are already starting to see oil bought in Chinese yuan, Russian rubles, et cetera.
Because of this, I think this will eventually mean nothing. Furthermore, let’s not forget that the Russians are still selling oil to the EU via back channels, as well as natural gas. So, I think what’s going to end up happening is this will cool off. Now, it doesn’t necessarily mean the gold will cool off because there are plenty of geopolitical issues out there that could come into the situation and send gold even higher.
Quite frankly, we are in a strong uptrend and there’s no reason to think that changes anytime soon. So, with this, I like the idea of buying gold, but I also recognize that we need to hang on to the $2,280 level underneath. If we were to break down below there, then we could see a deeper correction, but right now it looks like the buyers most certainly will have the upper hand overall. I do believe that sooner or later we will try to get to the $2400 level above.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Faces Bearish Retracement, Key Support Levels in Focus
By: Bruce Powers | June 13, 2024
• Bearish signs increase for gold as it falls below key near-term levels, with support zones from 2,287 to 2,277 and potential targets around 2,252.
Gold triggered a bearish drop below yesterday’s 2,311 low today, thereby triggering an initial signal for a small bearish flag from the past few days. Resistance for the day was seen at 2,327, which was below yesterday’s high of 2,342. Sellers have been dominating price action since.
At the time of this writing gold looks like it will likely end Thursday’s trading session with a full red candle closing near the lows of the day. That will setup up gold for a continuation lower. However, confirmation of weakening will be needed as recent support may continue to stop the descent.
Bearish Continuation Below 2,287
There is a price support zone for gold from around last week’s low of 2,287 to the prior swing low at 2,277 from early May. Given recent bearish price behavior, including a drop below the 50-Day MA, the bearish rejection at resistance around the 50-Day line yesterday, and a bearish trend continuation signal given when gold fell below 2,315 (B), the risk of a deeper retracement is growing.
The bottom of the current support zone is at 2,277. Therefore, a decisive drop below that price level is needed for a clear bearish continuation signal. A decline below 2,287 will show weakening but not necessarily a breakdown that is sustainable as support may still be seen around the May swing low.
Lower Target Zone Approaches Trendline Support
The next lower target area is around 2,252. That is where a falling ABCD pattern completes. Both the AB leg of the decline and the CD leg will match the price change at that target. It will reflect price symmetry between the two swings. Once there is symmetry, the possibility of an important pivot is identified. Nevertheless, a decline below 2,252 will likely lead to a test of support at lower levels. Lower down is a price zone from roughly 2,211 to 2,195.
That area was previously the top of the trend and initiated a decisive breakout that propelled gold higher. Prior resistance areas tend to be subsequent support on a pullback, and that is what may occur with gold. If this lower price zone is approached the lower uptrend is another indicator to watch as it defines a lower parameter for a rising parallel trend channel.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Faces Critical Support Zone Amid Ongoing Selling Pressure
By: Bruce Powers | June 11, 2024
• Gold's support at 2,287 may hold, but resistance at 2,344 and a significant support zone around 2,195-2,215 suggest continued downtrend risk.
Gold has been holding a support zone for the past couple days that was hit on Friday with a low of 2,287. That price area is marked by both the 50% retracement and support of a top trend channel line. Although a higher bounce to test resistance around the 50-Day MA at 2,344 may occur, gold broke through that key moving average line and kept falling last week. This indicates selling pressure that may not yet have been fully relieved. Nonetheless, last week’s low could still turn into a bottom, unless gold drops below 2,287.
Rallies Head into Resistance
A rally into resistance will occur within a developing downtrend. Therefore, there continues to be a good chance that lower price targets are eventually tested during this correction. The initial lower target is the completion of a falling ABCD at 2,252. If last week’s low of 2,287 is broken to the downside, this next target comes on deck. But there is a more significant price target zone underneath there. It has greater significance because there are multiple indicators pointing to the same price area. That price zone is around the previous breakout area of 2,195. It is included with a price zone that begins around 2,215.
Weekly Bearish Pattern
An uptrend line provides the maximum likely retracement as it resides at the lower end of a rising parallel trend channel. Gold was rejected around resistance at the top of the channel with last Friday’s high of 2,388 (C). Also, the weekly chart ended last week with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. It had a top tail and closed near the lows of the week. A drop through last week’s low will trigger that bearish candle. Until then, it remains a possibility.
Bullish Reversal Not Seen Until 2,388 is Exceeded
Given the current price structure near the top of the trend, gold would not be clearly showing strength that may be sustainable until there is a decisive advance above last Friday’s 2,388 high. Until then, the developing downtrend rules. Another possibility is that last week’s low continues to hold and that gold eventually strengthens to provide a new bullish signal. Or it falls lower but quickly recovers to close above last week’s low.
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3 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 8, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 4, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 237.3k, up 717.
After essentially hugging the 50-day for 10 consecutive sessions, gold sliced through the average on Friday. For the week, it declined 0.9 percent to $2,325/ounce. A loss of $2,300 – which seems imminent in the sessions ahead – will open the door toward horizontal support at $2,240s.
Earlier, gold printed a fresh high of $2,454 on May 20th before going the other way. The metal has come a long way. Last October, it ticked $1,824 and was at $1,996 this February. It is healthy to digest these gains by unwinding the overbought condition gold is in – the weekly in particular.
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3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 8, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23250 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Presently, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23351 and support forming below at 22943. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 23338. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Failed Bullish Breakout Sparks Volatility
By: Bruce Powers | June 7, 2024
• Gold's failed breakout led to a sharp selloff, breaking key supports and testing the 2,298-2,301 zone.
Volatility in gold spiked on Friday following a failed attempt to hold new trend highs reached earlier in the trading session. Notice that resistance was seen at 2,388, just under a top trend channel line. The subsequent selloff persisted throughout the day with gold breaking below the 2,315-swing low support from earlier this week. It is on track to end with a long red candle and will likely close near the lows of the day and below the prior interim swing low.
Testing Support at 50% Retracement
With the day’s low of 2,301, at the time of this writing, gold is testing support of another top trend channel line that can be combined with the 50% retracement at 2,298. That is a possible support zone and so far, it is stopping the descent. It may continue to do so in the short-term.
However, the drop today took the price of gold below the 50-Day MA, and it is on track to end Friday below it, thereby confirming a breakdown. The most recent swing low at 2,277 is a key price level as those low forms the price structure of the uptrend. If it is broken the characteristics of the trend begin to alter and the chance for a deeper or prolonged correction increases.
Failed Weekly Breakout Points to Lower Prices
Today’s price action sets up a failed weekly bullish breakout that was triggered on Thursday. The sharpest moves can come from failed patterns. That dynamic is now evident in gold as seen in today’s sharp bearish reversal. The stage is set for a continuation of a falling ABCD pattern that was confirmed by today’s drop below 2,315. An initial target is at 2,252, and the next extended target is around 2,215. Notice that the lower target aligns with a prior trend breakout area and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,211.
The rising trend channel is also a concern. On the recent new highs gold was attempting to breakout of a rising parallel trend channel. A drop below today’s low will confirm the beginning of a breakdown back into the channel. Once that happens, the chance of an eventual drop to the lower line of the channel increases.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Triggers Weekly Bullish Reversal, Targets Higher Levels
By: Bruce Powers | June 6, 2024
• Gold's rally above 2,364 signals a bullish reversal, aiming for 2,487, with the 20-Day MA now serving as crucial support during pullbacks.
Gold triggers a weekly bullish reversal on Thursday with a rally above last week’s high of 2,364. A daily close above that price level will confirm the breakout. Once confirmed, the chance for further strengthening improves. At the time of this writing gold had reached a high of 2,378 for the day. Also, the 20-Day MA, which has acted as resistance recently, was busted to the upside. The 20-Day line is now at 2,362. If it holds as support during pullbacks, gold should be ready to continue its way higher.
Upside Breakout of Consolidation
Today’s advance triggered a breakout of a falling flag type pattern marked by two declining parallel lines on the chart. It reflects similar price action as seen in a falling bullish wedge pattern. Since a swing low is now indicated at 2,315, a rising ABCD pattern has been added to the chart. It provides an initial target of 2,487. That is where the price advance seen in the CD leg of the pattern matches the move in the AB portion. Once price symmetry is matched a pivot level is identified. That 2,487-price target area is confirmed by several Fibonacci targets. However, there are lower Fibonacci targets as well at 2,462 and 2,480 that are derived from longer Fibonacci measurements.
20-Day MA Should Now Mark Trend Support
The relationship with the 20-Day MA will now take on a greater significance as it should act as support during weakness since today’s breakout is decisive. Nonetheless, the strength or weakness of the day’s close will provide greater clarity. Also, Thursday’s low of 2,353 is a near-term support level to keep an eye on. A break below it may follow a drop below the 20-Day line, if it was to occur.
50-Day MA Also Important
Support was seen around the 50-Day MA over the past six days with a swing low during the period at 2,315. It should also be watched during pullbacks. If gold stays above the 50-Day line, it is signaling higher prices and a continuation of the bull trend. On a monthly basis, for the month of June gold has been trading inside the trading range from May. It could continue to do so throughout the month rather than clearly progressing higher from current price levels.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Bullish Potential Amid Consolidation and Key Support
By: Bruce Powers | June 5, 2024
• Gold remains in a nine-day consolidation, with key levels at 2,364 and 2,315, showing bullish potential on the weekly chart.
Gold remains in a tight consolidation pattern as it has for the past nine days. The high of the range is at 2,364 (C), also a weekly high, and the low is 2,315. On Wednesday gold advanced to a three-day high of 2,357, once again testing resistance at the 20-Day MA. At the time of this writing gold is on track to close at its highest daily closing price in six days. An advance above 2,360 will provide an earlier bullish signal than a rise above 2,364.
50-Day Moving Average Trend Support
The 50-Day MA has been representing an area of support over the past week. If this week’s low of 2,315 fails to maintain support, gold is heading towards a retest of the recent swing low of 2,277. A break below there has it heading towards the earlier breakout levels at 2,212 and 2,195. An interim target is 2,239, which is the completion of a falling ABCD pattern. That target is a potential pivot where support might be seen. The extended ABCD target is down at 2,205, within the 2,212 to 2,195 price zone.
Weekly Bullish Breakout Above 2,364
An advance above the 2,364-price level also triggers a weekly bullish reversal from last week’s relatively narrow range week, if it happens before the end of the week. So far this week, gold is showing signs of strengthening on the weekly chart. If it maintains strength, it will close the week in the green with a bullish weekly setup. Maintaining support around the 50-Day MA is going to save the trend in gold. The purple 20-Day MA defined dynamic resistance of the upswing from the February 29 bullish breakout, while the new advance may use the 50-Day line as dynamic trend support.
A breakout above last week’s high does not mean that gold starts going straight up again. Although it may do that, the more likely scenario following the recent 23.5% rally, is further consolidation near the recent highs. Another critical price level on the way up will be 2,431, a prior record high from April 12. Resistance may be seen there again, but there is also a good chance that the price of gold breaks out through the price zone as it heads higher.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Holds 50-Day MA Support Amid Downtrend Concerns
By: Bruce Powers | June 4, 2024
• Despite holding support at the 50-Day MA, gold's recent trend of lower weekly highs and lows suggests caution for investors.
Gold holds support around the 50-Day MA for the fourth day in a row on Tuesday. It remains sandwiched between resistance around the purple 20-Day MA and the 50-Day line for support. Although gold has dipped below the 50-Day line intraday in the last two days, it has ended the sessions at or above the 50-Day line. Watch where it ends today to see if there is a change in the recent closing pattern. If the daily close is lower relative to the 50-Day line than what has been seen to date, it may be signaling further weakness before the retracement is complete.
Weekly Chart is Bearish
Nevertheless, the weekly chart is taking a more bearish tone. This week triggered a third consecutive lower weekly low. The week’s low of 2,315 is lower than last week’s low of 2,321, which is lower than the prior week’s low of 2,325. In addition, this week and last week’s highs are each lower than the prior week. In other words, there is a series of lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows established on the weekly chart, which defines a downtrend. That will start to change if this week’s high gets above last week’s high of 2,364 before the end of this week.
Price Support Areas to Watch
This week’s low of 2,315 is key near-term support. A decisive drop below that level has gold heading towards potential support around a top trend channel line at approximately 2,299 and then the 50% retracement zone at 2,289. Note that the recent swing low found support in early-May at 2,277. If that price level is eventually broken, then the 2,239-price zone becomes the net lower target (D). That target reflects price symmetry within a falling ABCD pattern, as marked on the chart. Further down is the second target for the ABCD pattern at 2,205. It is part of a price support zone from 2,208 to around 2,154.
Signs of Strength Above 2,364
Gold will be showing signs of strength rather than weakness with a rally above the most recent swing high (C) of 2,364, which is also last week’s high. Until then, downside risk remains. A daily close above 2,364 will further confirm strength and more so on a rally and close above the 2,384 daily high from May 23.
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4 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 1, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 236.6k, up 6.8k.
Gold was up 0.5 percent for the week but could have done better. At Tuesday’s high, gold rallied as high as $2,386 but finished the week at $2,346/ounce. The metal has essentially gone sideways the last six sessions just above the 50-day ($2,335).
It increasingly feels like gold is taking a breather before beginning a process of digesting the recent gains. Last October, the yellow metal ticked $1,824 and was at $1,996 this February. On May 20th, gold reached $2,454.
Once the 50-day gives way, there is decent support at $2,240s.
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4 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 1, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23458 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Up to now, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 23490 and support forming below at 23405. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 14 weeks reaching a high during the week of May 20th at 23263. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a sharp move of 4.905% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 19964 as it has fallen back reaching only 23338 which still remains 16.90% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 20th has exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23006. Additional support is to be found at 23046. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Drops Below Key Levels, Signals Further Weakness
By: Bruce Powers | May 31, 2024
• Testing the 50-Day MA, gold hits new retracement low at 2,321, indicating potential for continued bearish momentum.
Following a successful test of resistance around the 20-Day MA gold turns down and attacks its 50-Day MA. At the time of this writing gold has reached a low for the day of 2,321 and it continues to trade near the lows. Further, today’s low is a new retracement low as the previous level of 2,322 was busted. It looks like gold intends to test lower price levels unless strong support is seen soon.
Next Possible Support Zone
The next potential support area may be seen around a top rising channel line that is currently near 2,298. If gold drops further below the 50-Day MA and stays below it, the recent swing low of 2,277 is at risk of being broken. There are several lower price areas marked on the chart but let’s start by considering a developing falling ABCD pattern.
A bearish continuation was triggered on Wednesday following a two-day bounce. Subsequently, support was seen around the 50-day line leading to a retest of resistance today and yesterday. Since resistance was followed by a decline today, it looks like the initial target from the pattern at 2,239 could be reached eventually.
Return to Previous Breakout Levels?
Further down is a potentially more significant price zone as it was previously trend highs of a small consolidation pattern. When combined with Fibonacci price levels a potential support zone from 2,207 to roughly 2,195 is indicated. A breakout of that consolidation was the most recent pattern breakout prior to the April 12 swing high. Therefore, that price area would be the maximum decline that may test previous resistance as support.
Weekly Chart is Bearish
The weekly chart is supportive of a deeper retracement as this week is likely to end below last week’s low of 2,325, thereby confirming a weekly bearish continuation signal. It follows a bearish candle from last week when gold also closed near the lows of the week. This means the last two weeks have had a bearish reaction to the new trend high last week. In other words, a failed breakout. Failed patterns frequently lead to sharp moves in the opposite direction.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Bounces Off Key Support at 50-Day Moving Average
By: Bruce Powers | May 30, 2024
• Gold's recent pullback to 2,322 finds support at the 50-Day MA, with potential for another advance toward record highs.
Gold fell to a new pullback low of 2,322 where it found support and bounced. That low completed a successful test of support at the 50-Day MA (2,324), as price was rejected to the upside. Also, notice that today’s high of 2,352 provided another test of resistance just below the purple 20-Day MA on the chart. The 50-Day line is a key intermediate trend indicator.
First Test of Support at 50-Day Line
Today was the first test of support at the line since gold broke out above it on February 29. That was the beginning of the sharp rally that peaked last week at a new record high of 2,450. It should continue to maintain support if gold is to have another shot at record highs before a deeper retracement. That means today’s low support at 2,322 is a key near-term price level for gold.
Break Above 2,364 Shows Buyers Back in Charge
Beginning on Friday’s trading session, gold will show strength on a rally above today’s high of 2,352. But an advance above the minor swing high at 2,364 will give a clearer sign of strength as that will also put gold back above the purple 20-Day MA, currently at 2,355. However, to clear the pullback bottom and set the stage for a test of the recent record high, the price of gold should get above last Thursday’s high of 2,384. Interestingly, notice that two trendlines cross just around that price zone.
Weekly Chart is Clearer
Nevertheless, when looking at the weekly chart the picture is a little clearer. There is one more day of trading for the week and unless gold shows greater strength before the week’s close it is set to end with a relatively narrow range week with a high of 2,364 and a low of 2,322. Narrow price ranges typically end with an acceleration of momentum in one direction or another once a breakout triggers. On a weekly timeframe, it is representative of consolidation.
There was only one other weekly narrow range since the breakout of a symmetrical triangle began the recent sharp rise on February 29. It occurred on March 11 and was followed by a resumption of the bull trend. However, there was a quick drop below the week’s low before buyers took back control.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Bounces Above 20-Day MA Amid Choppy Market Moves
By: Bruce Powers | May 28, 2024
• A close above the 20-Day MA may indicate a minor bullish signal, but gold faces short-term resistance slightly above today’s high.
Following last week’s bearish pullback to a low of 2,325, gold continues its bounce. It has managed to get back above the 20-Day MA after falling below it for a few days, and it might close above the line. If it does end Tuesday’s session above the 20-Day line, a minor bullish signal will be provided. Also, the downtrend line was successfully tested as support today following a rise above the line on Monday. In a rising market a successful test of prior resistance as support is supportive of a bull trend, even if only for a short time frame.
Trendlines and Pivots
Both the downtrend line and the 20-Day MA are identifying a similar price pivot zone. Two trendlines are slightly above today’s high and could present short-term resistance if gold rises to test those lines. Nevertheless, a rally above last Thursday’s high of 2,384 is needed for confidence that an advance can keep rising. A rise above Thursday’s high would put gold above the top trend channel line and the up-trend line, thereby further indicating strength of demand.
Last Week’s Price Action Provides a Clue
Regardless of potential bullish signals, gold may continue to experience choppy moves with weak follow-through given last week’s price action. History supports this. Last week ended with a wide-range red outside week, with a low of 2,325 and a high of 2,450 (record high). Therefore, trading within the range can experience an impact like what is seen when trading occurs inside a consolidation pattern.
A similar situation happened following a new record high of 2,135 on December 4 of last year. The week ended as a wide-range bearish red candle with a close near the lows of the week. Notice what happened afterwards following a brief new low that led to a bounce. The following eight weeks traded within the range of the initial candle that eventually formed a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. It took an additional two weeks to complete the pattern and for gold to break out and begin to rally again. Although the pattern may be different this time, the possibility of a few weeks or more of consolidation before gold is ready to advance again, cannot be ruled out.
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1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 25, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 229.8k, up 25.3k.
Non-commercials raised net longs in gold futures to the highest since April 2022. They were probably lured into the trade by the metal’s recent strength. This month, gold rallied from $2,285 on the 3rd to $2,454 on the 20th, with the latter a fresh record, surpassing the recent all-time high of $2,449 posted on April 12th.
However, gold bugs were unable to latch on to the 20th (this Monday) high. By the end of the week, the yellow metal gave back 3.4 percent to $2,335/ounce.
More weakness probably lies ahead, particularly if the bulls are unable to defend the 50-day moving average at $2,319. There is decent support at $2,240s.
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1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 25, 2024
Next Monday is Memorial Day, which is a holiday in the United States. NY Gold Futures closed today at 23345 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Presently, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24542 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 22491. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's close of 23029.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23387 and support forming below at 23182. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 29th at 22852, which was down 3 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 8th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24542 to 23263. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 20th reaching 24542 has exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. We have seen a rally thus far from the last low of 22852 for the past 3 weeks. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune, however, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 22852. Resistance is to be found starting at 23402. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 20030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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1 month ago
Gold Faces Resistance, Eyes 50-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | May 24, 2024
• After reaching support at 2,325, gold bounces to 2,347 but finds resistance, suggesting further decline towards the 50-Day MA.
Gold stalled its bearish retracement today with a narrow range day after dropping briefly below yesterday’s low to reach support at 2,325. Subsequently, an intraday bounce found resistance at the 20-Day MA with a high for the day at 2,347. Both the narrow range day with consolidation near the lows of Thursday’s trading range and a successful test of prior support as resistance, are potentially bearish indications that may occur in downtrends.
Further, trading is occurring back near the lows of the day at the time of this writing, and therefore gold may close weak, in the bottom third of the day’s range. And unless something changes in the next few hours it will end the week with a large red candlestick pattern, closing near the lows of the week.
Weekly Breakdown Triggered
Yesterday, gold triggered a breakdown below last week’s low of 2,332. A daily close below that price level will confirm the bearish implications. But it will then depend on what happens after that. Nevertheless, given today’s sustained selling pressure it looks like the 50-Day MA around 2,309 is next on the agenda. The successful test of resistance at the 20-Day line today is a small clue that the retracement is likely to continue to lower prices.
Whether it has the potential to fall below the 50-Day MA remains to be seen. Certainly, it is an important trend indicator for the current advance especially since the 20-Day line has failed to stop the decline. Yesterday’s selloff was clear with little hesitation as the 20-Day line was broken.
Anticipating Test of Support at 50-Day MA
If support can be found at or above the 50-Day MA, a continuation of the rally may follow. However, a sustained drop below it puts the recent swing low at 2,277 from early-May at risk of being broken. If that happens the price structure of the uptrend is violated as it is a higher swing high. There are less significant potential support levels just below the 50-Day line but above the early-May swing low. The 50% retracement of the internal uptrend is at 2,289 and a top trend channel line is a little higher from there.
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1 month ago
Gold Breaks Support Levels, Risk of Further Decline
By: Bruce Powers | May 23, 2024
• Gold falls below multiple support levels to 2,332, indicating a potential bearish reversal and increasing risk of a deeper correction.
Gold sold off again on Thursday as it fell below several points of potential support to reach a low of 2,332. Trading continues near the lows of the day and gold may continue lower. Several trendline support areas failed to halt the decline and the 20-Day MA was broken to the downside.
Further, it looks like the daily close may come in below the 20-Day line. Today’s low is also a weekly low from last week. If gold falls below last week’s low and stays there, a bearish weekly reversal will be triggered. How gold does or does not follow through from there will be key.
Watching 50-Day Moving Average
If a more significant retracement than what was seen most recently is beginning the 50-Day MA will be the next key test of support at 2,306. Gold has traded above the 50-Day line since the acceleration in momentum following a symmetrical triangle breakout on February 29. If it is busted to the downside there is a good chance that the recent 2,277 swing low support is broken. That can easily lead to a test of support around 2,195, which is a prior swing high. Further down is the prior swing high at 2,135.
This Week’s High Completes a 23.5% Advance
As of this week’s high of 2,450 gold was up by 465.80 points or 23.5%, when measured from the mid-February low of 1,984. Today’s price action indicates that the risk of a deeper correction since the mid-February 1.94 bottom is increasing. There were three trendlines that cross just above the 20-Day MA that created a potential support zone. That zone failed today as gold dropped through each one. Further, the near-term trending indicator, the 20-Day MA, was attempting continue to represent dynamic support for the uptrend as gold dropped below it recently and then rallied back above it.
Today’s High of 2,384 is Near-term Resistance
On the upside, a minimum rally above today’s high 2,384 would be needed for the first sign of strength. That should be followed by a daily close above that level. Nevertheless, as stated above, the preference next for gold seems to be leaning more to the downside than the upside.
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1 month ago
Gold Price Falls Further After Record High, Eyes Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | May 22, 2024
• Gold's decline from its peak of 2,450 brings it near vital support zones, including the 20-Day MA at 2,348.
Gold lost its upward momentum and fell below the lows of the past two days before finding support at a three-day low of 2,375. However, trading remains near the lows of the day at the time of this writing. Sellers took control today following Monday’s new record high of 2,450. That day closed weak, with the price of gold ending in the lower half of the day’s trading range. Nonetheless, it is fast approaching initial potential support levels for the uptrend.
Three Trendlines for Support
There are several trendlines that converge around 2,364 to 2,356. A little lower is the 20-Day MA at 2,348. How gold reacts to the 20-Day line will be telling. It was broken for a little more than two weeks in April before gold rallied back above it on May 9. Support was confirmed over the next few days before it began to rise again leading to a new record high. If today’s weakness leads to a retest of support around the 20-Day line and price is rejected to the upside, the trend structure will be maintained. Or, if support is seen above the 20-Day MA.
Weekly Uptrend Intact Until 2,332
Further, last week’s low is at 2,332 and it provides another lower possible support area. The weekly chart (not shown) has an uptrend in place with this week being the third with a higher weekly low and higher high. Therefore, it is another key price level to watch if the retracement eventually starts to approach that price zone. On the daily chart the weekly low is the most recent swing low where the 20-Day line was tested as support.
Watching Reaction to Support Levels
Until proven otherwise, the uptrend can be anticipated to continue following a pullback. A daily close below the 20-Day MA might change the near-term situation. It would put the current uptrend structure at risk of changing the slope of the ascent. As discussed previously, the current advance from the most recent swing low made a second attempt to breakout from two rising parallel trend channels. The more significant line is the longer one that marks support around 2,364 if was reached today.
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1 month ago
Gold Minor Pullback Following New Record High
By: Bruce Powers | May 21, 2024
• Gold retreated slightly on Tuesday, pulling back from the new record high of $2,450 hit in the previous session.
Following an advance to a new trend high of 2,450 yesterday, gold pulled back slightly on Tuesday, falling below Monday’s low of 2,407. Today is the first day in six that the price of gold fell below a prior day’s low. Last week gold ended strong, closing at its highest weekly closing price ever. However, following a rise to a new record high, Monday ended weak, in the lower half of the day’s range and below the prior record high of 2,431. The closing price was 2,426.
Top Channel Line Shows Support
Nevertheless, there was a minor bullish indication given with today’s low of 2,406, as it successfully tested support at a top trend channel line. Last Thursday that line was specifically resistance at the peak of the day, and now showing signs of support. This is bullish price action that is typical for a developing bull trend. Subsequently, we have near-term support at today’s low of 2,406 and resistance at the high of 2,434. A breakthrough either should point to the next likely direction in gold, either bullish continuation or retracement and consolidation.
Rally Above Today’s 2,434 High is Bullish
A decisive rally above today’s high of 2,434 shows strength and may lead to a test of Monday’s 2,450 high and possibly a continuation higher. The next higher target zone was almost reached yesterday. It includes two Fibonacci extension targets and runs from 2,461 to 2,462. The 2,462 has potentially greater significance as it covers a measurement from a longer time frame than the 2,461 level. When measuring the retracement of the 51-month decline that started from the August 2011 trend high at 1,921, a 161.8% extended retracement completes at 2,461. That price level is enhanced by a shorter Fibonacci extended target marking 2,460 as a target.
Outlook Remains Bullish
The overall outlook for gold is clearly bullish given recent price action. Notice that the purple 20-Day MA has started to turn up after a minor downward sloping phase, and it has converged with the internal uptrend line. As of last Friday, gold was back above both top trend channel lines following a drop back below the lines on April 22. An initial bullish breakout from the parallel trend channel triggered on April 8. Notice that both lines identified a similar resistance area on the breakout day as the lines were crossing. A second breakout of the channels looks like it may be the one that can keep advancing.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 19, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 204.5k, up 4.9k.
Gold rallied for a second week in a row, up 1.8 percent this week. The mettle has been rallying since May 3rd when it ticked $2,285 intraday. As a matter of fact, this week represents a new closing high of $2,417 – just ahead of $2,414 recorded four weeks prior. Back then, gold had just printed a new intraday high of $2,449, which occurred on April 12th, but the session reversed hard to close at $2,361.
Kudos to gold bugs for having rallied the metal back to those highs. The action after that high lasting five weeks now qualifies for sideways congestion, giving the bulls another opportunity to break out.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Jack Chan: Gold Price Exclusive Update
By: Jack Chan | May 18, 2024
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now DOWN.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear direction how we should be speculating.
Investors
Accumulate positions during an up cycle and hold for the long term.
Traders
Enter the market at cycle bottoms and exit at cycle tops for short term profits.
GLD is on short term buy signal.
GDX is on short term buy signal.
XGD.to is on short term buy signal.
GDXJ is on short term buy signal.
Analysis
Current data favors overall lower gold prices.
Our ratio is on buy signal.
Trend is UP for USD.
Trend is UP for gold stocks.
Trend is UP for gold.
A clear five waves pattern is in progress, and perhaps ending soon.
A diamond bottom is a bullish chart pattern.
Summary
Gold sector cycle is now down.
Trend is up for gold and gold stocks..
$$$ We were stopped out with a small profit.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 18, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 24174 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 23956.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 24488, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of April 29th, which has been a move of 6.222%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24488 made 5 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 21048 and 24294. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of April 8th has exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 20030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Is Doing Great!
By: Carl Swenlin | May 17, 2024
While we don't typically begin with a monthly chart, it seems like a good place to start, as most of the good news is present there.
Beginning on the left side, we can see how gold made a parabolic advance into an all-time high in 2011. Parabolic advances beg for correction, and boy did gold correct. It declined almost -50% into a low in 2015, then advanced for over three years into a new all-time high in 2020. During that time, a bullish cup formation emerged. After that, it consolidated for over three years (the handle), ultimately breaking out of a 12-year consolidation.
I think it is an important point that gold took over 12 years to digest the huge advance into the 2011 top. In my opinion, it puts a solid floor under the most recent advance.
Currently, we can see that gold has gone parabolic again, and it is hard to know when it will top. The preferable resolution to this vertical move would be a sideways consolidation, but we'll just have to wait and see. In my opinion, we shouldn't see any kind of parabolic crash.
Another bullish sign is that sentiment is still bearish. We assess sentiment by seeing if the closed-end Sprott Physical Gold Fund (PHYS) is selling at a discount or a premium. As you can see, it has been selling mostly at a discount for 11 years, clearly showing that the public is still not yet excited about owning gold. We think this is because cryptocurrencies are attracting a lot of the money that might otherwise be moving into gold. In any case, bearish sentiment is bullish for gold.
Looking at the daily candlestick chart below, we can see that the Gold ETF (GLD) closed at an all-time high today, just above a solid level of support. To clarify, GLD is a vehicle that can be used to trade/invest in gold, while the symbol $GOLD is a continuous contract dataset used to track the price of gold, but it cannot be owned.
Conclusion: Gold spent a long time, over 12 years, consolidating huge gains in the early part of the century. It recently broke out decisively from that trading range, and it appears to be at the start of another strong, long-term rally.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Surges to New Highs, Targets 2,462 Next
By: Bruce Powers | May 17, 2024
• Gold rallies to new high of 2,419, targeting 2,462 as strong bullish momentum pushes towards record weekly closing price.
Gold continued its rally today with a new swing high of 2,419. Momentum was strong indicated by the wide range day and full green candle. A top trend channel line and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement were exceeded during today’s advance. Gold is set to close strong, near the top of this week’s trading range. Nevertheless, baring an extreme move before the close, it should end at its highest ever weekly closing price. That bodes well for future prices and alludes to a continuation higher and a possible breakout to new record highs.
Gold Targets 2,462 if 2,431 is Exceeded
The recent record high in gold was 2,431. If exceeded to the upside gold looks to be heading towards 2,462. That price area is the confluence of two Fibonacci levels. One is an extended retracement of the September 2011 decline, and the other is the 127.2% extended retracement from the recent pullback off the 2,431-record high. Since they line up and represent both a long-term price projection and a short-term level, it should be watched closely for signs of resistance. Regardless, demand could remain strong and push prices right through that zone. Whatever the reaction around that price level, it is a potential pivot to be watched.
Further Up is 2,480
That price target is followed by a slightly higher target at 2,480, which is the completion of a measured move. Gold rallied by 870 points from the August 2018 swing low of 1,160. The current advance, when measured from September 2022 trend swing low at 1,615, will be up by 870 when the price of gold is at 2,485. That is a target. After that there are a variety of possible interim targets if the bull trend in gold continues to advance, and it looks like it will.
Strong Follow Through from March Breakout
As discussed previously, gold successfully broke out of a multi-year basing period in March of this year. The subsequent follow-through has been bullish as momentum has stayed strong and retracements or consolidation periods have been minor. For example, the recent retracement found support and reversed higher with less than a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement being completed. This reflects demand from buyers. It has stayed strong.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Price Forecast: Will the Rally Continue?
By: Bruce Powers | May 16, 2024
• Gold surged to a new high but encountered resistance, pausing its advance. Key trendlines suggest further upside potential, with the rally likely leading to new record highs.
Gold rallied to a new trend high of 2,397 on Thursday before encountering resistance and pulling back intraday. At the time of this writing gold is on track to complete the day with a narrow range, reflecting a pause in the advance. Resistance was seen at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and further confirmed by a top rising trend channel line that marked the same price. Support for the day was at 2,371, right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (prior resistance becomes support).
Trendlines Indicate Higher Prices for Gold
Of note is the relationship of the price of gold with two trendlines. The more significant line is the rising line connecting the recent May 3 swing low, as it covers a longer time frame than the second line. If gold stays above that line, it can be anticipated to continue to strengthen. Also, gold rose above the downtrend line starting from the April 12 record high of 2,431 yesterday, and it exceeded the prior trend high at 2,378 as well. Wednesday’s close was above both the line and prior trend high thereby confirming strength.
Second Breakout of Trend Channel in Process
Moreover, yesterday’s advance ended clearly above the longer top rising channel line, triggering a second bullish breakout from the parallel trend channel. Will the second breakout lead to upside follow through? Certainly, it is starting to look that way. In addition to the trendlines noted above, the purple 20-Day MA is critical support if a retracement begins. It happens to match the price represented by the rising trendline today at 2,334.
Breakout Above 2,397 Triggers Bullish Continuation
A decisive rally above today’s high of 2,397 provides a bullish signal. If this occurs the record high of 2,431 is the next target. Gold is likely to then continue to advance into new record high territory. The first new high target is around 2,461/2,462, marked by the confluence of two Fibonacci levels. It includes a 161.8% extension at of the retracement from the decline that began off the August 2011 trend high of 1,921. Therefore, it is potentially a significant price level as it covers a long period of time.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Price Breaks Resistance, Eyes Further Gains
By: Bruce Powers | May 15, 2024
• Gold price hits new high at 2,390, showing signs of strength and potential for further gains.
Buyers stepped up on Wednesday to help push the price of gold to a new trend high of 2,390. A bullish breakout triggered on the weekly chart on a move above last week’s high of 2,378. At the time of this writing the high of the day is 2,390. Today’s advance took gold back above a top channel line, which has been tested as resistance several times in the past few weeks and it provides another sign of strength for the precious metals. It doesn’t hurt that silver has also shown signs of continuing higher (not shown) as it rapidly approaches the high for the year.
Next Higher Target Zone is 2,398
Next, gold faces potential resistance around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,398. That price area also marks a top channel line. An advance through 2,398 will put gold back above both rising parallel trend channels following a failed breakout in early-April. A recovery following a failed breakout initially sets the stage for a continuation of the trend into higher prices. The first upside target is the trend high of 2,431. If a bull trend continuation signal is generated on a decisive rally above 2,431, the next higher target is at 2,431. Two Fibonacci levels mark that spot.
Second Channel Breakout Attempt
If gold advances above the top channel line and stays there, and then further strengthens, it will confirm strength. The advance to date has seen the price of natural gas appreciate at a rapid pace. A steep angle of ascent represents strength but also increases the risk for a sharp retracement. A daily close or more above the channel will go a long way to satisfying the bulls.
Long-Term Outlook is Bullish
As discussed more than once before, gold is in the process of following through on a bullish breakout above a multi-year base building period. Today’s advance triggered a breakout of the downtrend line and last week’s high. It shows buyers getting aggressively interested in gold as global uncertainty in government broadens. Moreover, a pullback remains a possibility if signs of weakness start to show up. The first sign of weakness that could lead to a deeper retracement would be on a drop below today’s low of 2,352.
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