BottomBounce
2 months ago
The silver shortage is expected to peak in 2024, with a projected deficit of around 265 million ounces. This is due to a number of factors, including:
Industrial demand
Industrial demand for silver has grown significantly in recent years, and is now responsible for 64% of global demand. This is driven by the growth of the solar energy, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicle sectors.
Supply
Supply has struggled to keep up with demand. The global supply of silver has remained relatively stable, but industrial demand has grown by 11%.
Economic conditions
Uncertain economic conditions in some key markets could impact the silver market. $SIVR $PSLV
$UPERMAN
11 years ago
Why Silver ETFs May Continue to Rise - ETF News And Commentary
While 2013 may have begun in a near commodity panic, prices have begun to rise for a number of natural resources as of late. This is particularly true in the precious metal market, as hard asset demand has surged while geopolitical risks have jumped as well.
These conditions have pushed some investors to scoop up precious metals, hoping to ride a wave of strength higher. While we have certainly seen this in the gold market, silver is presenting itself as an interesting opportunity as well (see all the Precious Metal ETFs here).
That is because this metal plays off of both industrial and safe haven demand, which has been a great combination as the U.S. economyβand other key economies such as in Europeβhave picked up steam, while Mideast tensions and concerns over easing programs have risen too.
Furthermore, interest in silver ETFs in particular has been relatively high. In fact, while gold ETFs have seen more or less flat asset accumulation over the past month, silver ETFs have seen more than $100 million in inflows. This suggests that investors are increasingly looking at the white metal for opportunities in this interesting, but still uncertain climate.
Recent Trends, Future Demand
These investors have seen solid gains lately, as silver has risen by nearly double digits in the last three months, while GLD has added just over 2.2% and the S&P 500 was actually negative in the time frame. But investors have to be asking; can this trend continue and can silver stay on top?
We think that the answer is yes, especially if global manufacturing activity continues to rise, and if broad industrial demand increases. After all, nearly half of silver use goes towards industrial applications, so this looks to be a key driver (see Silver ETFs Surge on Solid industrial Demand).
Beyond that, international events also look to play a key role. Geopolitical concerns are building over a possible Syrian conflict, and there are concerns with spillover into other nations in the region. Additionally, there has also been some silver interest from the key Indian market, as import taxes on gold have dulled the yellow metalβs appeal in comparison, setting up a very favorable situation for silver from an international perspective.
How to Play
Investors can always just buy up silver bullion, or even look to silver miners such as in the ETF, SIL. However, another option might be to play silver with an ETF, such as either of the following funds:
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
This is easily the most popular fund tracking silver bullion, as it has just less than $8 billion in assets under management. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 (Buy), while the expense ratio comes in at 50 basis points a year (also read Time to Buy the Covered Call Silver and Gold ETFs?).
ETFS Physical Silver Shares Trust (SIVR)
For a cheaper choice in the silver bullion ETF market, investors have SIVR from ETF Securities. This product is a bit less popular from an assets perspective though, so there may be slightly wider bid ask spreads. Still, this ETF also has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2, so it could be another great option in the space.
SPDR-GOLD TRUST (GLD): ETF Research Reports
GLBL-X SILVER (SIL): ETF Research Reports
ETF-SILVER TRST (SIVR): ETF Research Reports
ISHARS-SLVR TR (SLV): ETF Research Reports
NYBob
12 years ago
This is very interesting regarding SLV Custodian agreement
*Dave from Denver kicks it off,,,
A commentor on my blog pointed this out and I have not read reference to it anywhere, although I may have missed any published references.
Did any of you know that the Custodian Agreement between JPM and BONY was amended to enable JPM to keep SLV silver in both London and NY? The original prospectus required all bullion to be kept in London. Not only that, JPM's sub-custodians can keep bullion in both places.
I've linked the original Custodian Agreement (2005): http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1330568/000119312505180660/dex101.htm
And the amended agreement (Feb 2012): http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/133056
8/000119312505180660/dex101.htm
This would explain the large flow of silver in and out of the Comex recently AND it further reinforces the argument that JPM is using SLV silver to put out physical shortage "fires."â⬦
One revision to my statement: Alisdair Macleod wrote piece back in November 2012 that mentioned the custodial change in passing, but it was not the focus of his commentary:
http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1354026445.php
I believe this is a very significant change in the character of the SLV trust
***
*JPM is by far the major short in the silver market, and has been for a VERY long time. JPM is the ETF custodian of SLV. There is nothing in their prospectus which prohibits them from doing what they want to do with the physical silver in their ETF.
More and more is surfacing about the JPM criminal empire:
17:05 JPM JPMorgan Chase hid trades banned by Volcker Rule, according to Senate probe--Reuters
Citing Senator Levin, are also saying that JPM hide the London Whale loss, dodged oversight, and misled the public.
Reuters
* * * * *
That is just what GATA has been claiming about JPM for what seems like forever. Why doesnâβ¬β’t anybody start screaming about the conflict of interest of JPM taking physical silver investors have bought into via their ETF purchases, only to have JPM use that silver from time to time to put supply into the physical market to drive down the price at their convenience? If JPM has not ever done this, then they owe it to the EFT shareholders to publicly say so.
*On that note, I had a very interesting debate the other day with a trader named Don Harrold. It was fairly heated at some points, but, ironically, Don actually agrees with much of what GATA has to say, but views it differently. We had a very cordial chat on the phone afterwards and he said he would be happy to do anything he could to assist GATA with his followers (which I just did this afternoon)â⬦
DEBATE - JPMORGAN SILVER MANIPULATION: FACT or FANTASY? - Bill Murphy vs Don Harrold
For years, JPMorgan has been accused of silver price suppression. Bill Murphy, chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee faces Don Harrold, founder of the Day Trade Show, in a debate on whether JPMorgan has engaged in this criminal market activity. Besides JPMorgan, could other large market players be manipulating silver prices? Could even the Federal Reserve and US Government be conspiring with others to artificially suppress precious metal prices? Stay tuned and find out! Here is the link to the debate:
Gold & Silver have replaced every fiat currency
for the past 3000 years -
http://www.kwaves.com/fiat.htm
history often repeat itself -
ex....
http://www.europacmetals.com/Portals/0/newsletters/december2010.html
ChitForBrains
12 years ago
Silver should be crashing to the teens now that 12/21/2012 didn't produce disaster.
The fiscal cliff BS is nonsense, didn't you hear Obama during his campaign, "the economy is recovering", "we're better off", "we're out of the depression....
lol
forget silver, panic will sit in as these people with thousands upon thousands of silver coins start to worry about it falling.... then the little guys pop in for a loss with their hundreds... its going down...