Rio Tinto Sees China Steel Demand Dependent on China Covid Controls -- Commodity Comment
January 16 2023 - 4:43PM
Dow Jones News
Rio Tinto PLC on Tuesday reported higher fourth-quarter
production of most of its commodities, including iron ore and
aluminum. Mined copper output was slightly lower year-on-year, it
said. Here are some remarks from the fourth-quarter operations
report of the world's No. 2 miner by market value.
On Australian iron-ore operations:
"Pilbara operations produced 324.1 million [metric tons] (100%
basis) in 2022, 1% higher than 2021. Shipments were 321.6 million
tons (100% basis), in line with 2021. Performance improvements
continued across the system and we achieved record second-half
performance across the mine and rail system. We expect Gudai-Darri
to reach its nameplate capacity on a sustained basis during
2023."
On iron-ore markets:
"Iron ore Platts CFR prices rebounded 22% in the quarter,
although the average price of $99/ton in the fourth quarter was 4%
lower than the third quarter. Market sentiment strengthened after
Beijing released three stimulus packages in November to stabilize
the real estate market by lifting all previously applied financing
constraints on property developers. Prices trended above $110 at
year-end as China began dismantling its zero-Covid policy and
gradually reopening the economy, while mills also started to
replenish in-plant inventories ahead of the Lunar New Year
holidays. Steel demand recovery hinges on the country's ability to
control the Covid outbreak."
On copper production:
"Mined copper production of 521,000 tons was 6% higher than 2021
due to higher grades at Kennecott and Escondida, partly offset by
lower grades and recoveries at Oyu Tolgoi as a result of planned
mine sequencing. Unplanned maintenance was required at Kennecott in
the fourth quarter of 2022 in our anode furnaces leading to
extended downtime and continued poor anode production, likely to
result in weak cathode production in the first quarter of 2023.
Refined copper production at Kennecott will continue to be
challenged due to the smelter and refinery performance, until we
undertake the largest rebuild in nine years which is planned for
the second quarter of 2023 and is expected to take approximately
three months."
On copper markets:
"The copper LME price rose 10% in the fourth quarter to $3.80 [a
pound], as market sentiment turned more positive on a series of
supply disruptions and low and declining visible stocks, which
remain at historically low levels. Price support came in the form
of Chinese government policy changes such as in the property market
and easing Covid-19 restrictions, together with demand growth in
renewables and EVs, plus the return of the investor net long
position in copper."
On aluminum output:
"Aluminum production of 3.0 million tons was 4% lower than 2021
due to reduced output at our Kitimat smelter in British Columbia,
Canada and Boyne smelter in Queensland, Australia. The rate of pot
restarts at Kitimat picked up in the fourth quarter and Boyne
smelter cell recovery efforts continued. Recovery at both smelters
is progressing with full ramp-up expected to be completed during
the course of 2023. All of our other aluminum smelters continued to
demonstrate stable performance."
On aluminum markets:
"The LME cash aluminum price increased 8% in the quarter,
although the average price of $2,324 in the fourth quarter was 1%
lower than the third quarter. The market was supported by low
reported levels of inventories, and expectations of improving
Chinese demand. In North America, shipments of extrusions and
rolled products softened over the quarter, mainly on weaker
extrusion shipments into the building and construction sector.
Aluminum demand growth from renewables and electric vehicles (EVs)
remains firm. LME stocks are now at their lowest level in 22 years,
and Chinese warehouse stocks are at a six-year low."
On titanium dioxide operations:
"Titanium dioxide slag production of [1.2 million tons] was 18%
higher than 2021, due to community disruptions at Richards Bay
Minerals (RBM) in South Africa in 2021, and continued improved
performance of operations at Rio Tinto Fer et Titane (RTFT),
Canada. Production constraints related to nationwide electrical
power load-shedding at RBM were experienced in the fourth
quarter."
On Canadian iron-ore operations:
"Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC) production of pellets and
concentrate was 6% higher than 2021. Successful deployment of the
Rio Tinto Safe Production System (SPS) at the concentrator was
completed in the year, with record performance metrics achieved in
the year, including monthly records for concentrate production and
total material moved in the second quarter. Planning for SPS
deployment at the pellet plant commenced in December."
Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 16, 2023 17:28 ET (22:28 GMT)
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