DEALWATCH: US Retailers Should Start Hawking Equity
May 01 2009 - 7:05AM
Dow Jones News
It's time retailers took a cue from their REIT counterparts and
considered raising equity to bolster their balance sheets.
Since March 9, both the S&P 1500 Real Estate and S&P
1500 Retailing indexes have gained around 45%. However, that's
where the similarity ends between the two sectors. While 23 U.S.
real estate investment trusts have capitalized on these gains and
raised equity, so far no retailer has taken the opportunity.
Indeed, prima facie, REITs have a greater need to issue equity
as they carry more debt on their balance sheets than retailers.
However, retailers carry significant off-balance-sheet debt in the
form of operating leases on the real estate underlying their
stores.
Before adjusting for these leases, the average net
debt-to-market-cap ratio for companies in the S&P 1500
Retailing index is 0.47x, versus 1.86x in the S&P 1500 REIT
index. When adjusted for the operating leases, that number jumps to
1.90x, surpassing that for REITs.
On top, retailers' earnings are susceptible to external factors
such as fashion trends, weather and discretionary spending, which
makes their business model riskier than that of REITS, which rely
on steady rental income.
Timing may prove crucial here as it's questionable if the
current rally in retailer stocks has legs. So far, it's been driven
by better-than-expected earnings. However, the results have been
achieved in part through aggressive cost-cutting as opposed to
top-line growth.
Actually, several retailers, from high-end department stores to
mass discounters, continue to report significantly negative
same-store sales trends.
Retailers that could benefit from equity issuance include
companies like Group 1 Automotive Inc. (GPI), which has seen a 96%
rise in share price since March 9 but has an adjusted net
debt/next-12-months Ebitdar (earnings before interest, taxes,
amortisation and rent) of 10.55x. Foot Locker Inc. (FL), is another
example; its shares have risen 57%, and it has an adjusted net
debt/NTM Ebitdar of 5.41x. Also, shares of Sears Holdings Corp.
(SHLD) have risen 56% since March 9, and the company has an
adjusted net debt/NTM Ebitdar of 4.21x.
The reticence on the part of retailers to issue equity despite
the current rally may be due to the fact that most stocks are still
trading well off their 52-week highs.
However, the current capital market window could close quickly
if end-consumer demand fails to pick up in coming months and
retailers run out of areas to cut costs. Even retailers that think
they currently have the appropriate capital structures could be at
risk given the high operating leverage of these businesses.
(Sameer Bhatia is a columnist with Dow Jones Newswires. He
brings over seven years of experience in the investment banking
industry advising clients in sectors including consumer, retail and
beverages on capital markets, valuation and strategic issues. He
can be reached at 201-938-5863 or by email at
sameer.bhatia@dowjones.com. Dow Jones Newswires is enhancing its
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