FOSTER CITY, Calif.,
March 12, 2020 /PRNewswire/
-- HSH.com releases today its latest "Home Price Recovery
Index," (HPRI), a quarterly analysis of changing home values in the
nation's top 100 metropolitan housing markets. Developed by
HSH, a premiere consumer destination for mortgage information and
rate shopping since 1979, HPRI reveals markets with home prices at
or above previous "boom era" peaks and those that have not yet
completely recovered lost value.
The latest study examines home values in the largest 100
metropolitan areas from 1991 through the fourth quarter of 2019.
Although home prices are rising broadly, increases in value remain
uneven. As such, value gaps in many areas continue to narrow but no
new markets joined the ranks of the recovered in the latest
quarter, and some markets seem unlikely to reach recovery in the
current economic and housing cycle. However, there is a group of
markets that stand a good chance to move into the black in the next
quarter or two.
HSH.com's "Home Price Recovery Index" uses the Federal Housing
Finance Agency's (FHFA) Home Price Index for insight on housing
market values since the last decade. By this reference, 87 of the
100 largest metro areas saw quarter-to-quarter increases in home
values, but 13 metros did show lower values in the fourth quarter
of 2019 compared to the third.
In addition, three markets (Elgin
IL, Charleston-North Charleston
SC and El Paso, TX) saw
home values that were lower in the fourth quarter when compared
against year-ago levels, up from just one such market in the third
quarter. These markets appear to be cooling a bit.
Areas with
greatest pricing recovery
|
Percent value now
above "boom era" price peak
|
1.
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
|
97.71%
|
2. Austin-Round
Rock-Georgetown, TX
|
85.82%
|
3.
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
|
75.50%
|
It is important to note that many markets have seen significant
price recoveries since hitting their bottom values but many have
still not attained full recovery of lost value. In fact, there are
still five metros areas where this is the case despite a doubling
or more of "bust era" bottom home values, and two (Cape Coral-Cape
Myers, FL and Stockton, CA) remain
in the group with the largest value gaps yet.
Areas with largest
recovery gaps
|
Percent increase
needed to regain price peak
|
1. Bakersfield,
CA
|
21.13%
|
2.
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
|
15.90%
|
3. Cape Coral-Fort
Myers, FL
|
15.27%
|
Although increases in home values in the fourth quarter weren't
strong enough to move any new markets into the black, home price
gains are improving the fortunes of those next in line, making it a
virtual certainty that another group will join the recovered ranks
soon.
Areas nearing
recovery
|
Percent increase
needed to regain price peak
|
1.
Frederick-Gaithersburg-Rockville, MD
|
0.22%
|
2. North
Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
|
0.86%
|
3. Wilmington,
DE
|
0.97%
|
Important takeaways
- Lower and still falling mortgage rates are re-igniting home
price gains. 64 markets now have values that are more than 10%
above previous peak, a figure up from 61 just a quarter ago, and an
increase of 7 metros compared against the fourth quarter of
2018.
- Only eight metro areas still have double-digit value gaps
yet to fill. Better still, the size of the gaps in the markets
with the greatest chasms continues to shrink. Two markets in the
group with the largest recovery gaps have only single-digit value
gaps to cover, and the market with the largest gap (Bakersfield, CA) has seen its gap shrink from
24.34% last year to 21.13% in the latest review, so progress is
being made, if slowly.
- There were no new entrants in to the "most recovered"
group. However, stronger price gains in the Colorado Springs CO and Buffalo NY metro areas pushed San Antonio TX from its #8 slot in the "most
recovered" group to #10. In the top group, no market has seen home
values increase by less than 50% since their respective
bottoms.
- Although no new markets hit "escape velocity" this quarter,
a total of six seem poised to do so in the next quarter or two.
Three are shown in the table above; the three others can be seen in
the analysis which accompanies the content on HSH.
- The ranks of the markets with the largest gaps to fill were
shuffled a bit in the fourth quarter. After dropping in during
the 3Q19 ranking, the Chicago-Naperville-Evanston
IL metro stepped back out in Q4, replaced by the
Lake County-Kenosha County IL/WI
metro. As noted, Bakersfield, CA
retained the top spot and five others swapped positions in the
remaining nine slots.
See the full analysis here:
https://www.hsh.com/finance/real-estate/home-price-recovery.html
Homeowners interested in seeing how their home's value has
changed over time are encouraged to use HSH.com's free
"Home Value Estimator" tool. It allows users to select their market
from 100 metropolitan areas and enter the time frame in which
they've owned their home; the tool reveals changes in the home's
value during this ownership period and provides a current price
estimate based on housing cost trends in the selected metro
area.
About HSH.com
HSH.com is owned and operated by
QuinStreet, Inc. (Nasdaq: QNST), a pioneer in delivering online
marketplace solutions to match searchers with brands in digital
media. QuinStreet is committed to providing consumers and
businesses with the information and tools they need to research,
find and select the products and brands that meet their needs.
HSH.com is a member of the company's expert research and publishing
division.
HSH.com empowers homebuyers and homeowners to fully understand
their home financing choices and provides opportunities for them to
engage with partners to execute their transactions. Since 1979, HSH
has guided consumers seeking independent, objective and
expert-level information, forecasts and data. HSH offers unique
analysis, calculators, tools and content to demystify first
mortgages, home equity loans and lines of credit, reverse mortgages
and more. Keith Gumbinger, mortgage
expert and vice president of HSH.com, is available for interviews
on request.
Website: https://www.hsh.com
Twitter: @HSHassociates
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HSHassociates/
Media Contact
Amy Eury,
412-532-9352
aeury@quinstreet.com
OR
Liberty Communications for QuinStreet
Rick Judge, 415-429-5652
QuinStreet@libertycomms.com
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SOURCE HSH.com