2024 is shaping up to be more active than 2023
for homebuyers and sellers, with mortgage applications and new
listings rising. But Redfin economists believe demand and listings
would be rising more if not for harsher-than-usual winter
weather.
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Mortgage-purchase applications are up 8% from a
month ago, and Redfin agents report that lower mortgage rates are
piquing buyers’ interest, according to a new report from Redfin
(redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. On the
sell side, new listings increased 8% year over year during the four
weeks ending January 14.
Buyers and sellers are making moves largely because mortgage
rates are holding steady in the mid-6% range, down from 8% in
October. The typical U.S. homebuyer’s monthly housing payment is
$2,456 with this week’s average rate; while that’s up 10% year over
year, it’s down from October’s record high of over $2,700.
Redfin economists say buyer demand and listings would likely be
picking up more if not for the severe winter weather much of the
country experienced over the last week. “We expected both buyers
and sellers to react more strongly to last month’s drop in mortgage
rates once the holidays passed, but frigid weather and snowstorms
have halted a lot of buying and selling plans,” said Redfin
Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “As long as rates don’t shoot up,
we expect the market to pick up as the spring season
approaches.”
Redfin agents say weather conditions aside, buyers are feeling
more optimistic. “People who were casually house hunting when rates
were higher are getting serious now,” said Chicago Redfin Premier
agent Dan Close. “Buyers are feeling more confident that they can
get good value for their money, and many first-timers are jumping
in because Chicago rents are still rising. Homeowners who were
waiting for the holidays to be over and rates to come down before
selling are getting ready to list. I have several listings prepped
to hit the market, some as early as this week and some throughout
the rest of the first quarter.”
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.88% (Jan. 17)
Up slightly from 6.78% a week earlier
Up from 6.07%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.66% (week ending Jan. 11)
Near lowest level since May
Up from 6.33%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Up 9% from a week earlier; up 8% from a
month earlier (as of week ending Jan. 12)
Down 20%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Up 10% from a month earlier (as of Jan.
16)
Down 13%
Google Trends
We excluded Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand
Index this week to ensure data accuracy
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending
January 14, 2023
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending January 14,
2023
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$362,113
4.2%
Median asking price
$372,220
5.4%
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,456 at a 6.66% mortgage
rate
9.8%
Down nearly $300 from all-time
high set during the four weeks ending Oct. 22
Pending sales
51,411
-3.1%
New listings
48,507
7.8%
Active listings
762,737
-2.4%
Smallest decline since June
Months of supply
4.4 months
+0.3 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is
considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions.
Share of homes off market in two
weeks
25.1%
Unchanged
Median days on market
44
-2 days
Share of homes sold above list
price
23.2%
Up from 21%
Share of homes with a price
drop
3.9%
+0.2 pts.
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
98.3%
+0.5 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending January 14, 2023
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year
increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year
decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Anaheim, CA (16.6%)
West Palm Beach, FL (14.8%)
Newark, NJ (14.1%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (13.1%)
Miami (12.8%)
Oakland, CA (-3.4%)
Austin, TX (-2.8%)
Fort Worth, TX (-0.3%)
San Antonio, TX (-0.1%)
Declined in 4 metros
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (10.6%)
Detroit (9.5%)
Milwaukee, WI (6.1%)
Columbus, OH (5.6%)
Pittsburgh, PA (4.7%)
Newark, NJ (-14.3%)
New Brunswick, NJ (-13.9%)
New York (-13.2%)
San Diego (-12.2%)
West Palm Beach, FL (-11.3%)
Increased in 13 metros
New listings
Phoenix (24.4%)
Minneapolis, MN (22.1%)
Pittsburgh, PA (19.1%)
Houston (18.6%)
San Antonio, TX (17.6%)
Chicago (-13.8%)
Atlanta (-10.2%)
Newark, NJ (-7.3%)
Providence, RI (-7.1%)
Portland, OR (-5.6%)
Declined in 10 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-buyers-sellers-more-active
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We
also run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our
home-buying customers see homes first with same day tours, and our
lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers
selling a home in certain markets can have our renovations crew fix
up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers
millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent.
Customers who buy and sell with Redfin pay a 1% listing fee,
subject to minimums, less than half of what brokerages commonly
charge. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than
$1.5 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across
the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240118927046/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Ally Braun, 206-414-8880
press@redfin.com
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