Filed by Potlatch Corporation
Pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act of 1933
and deemed filed pursuant to Rule
14a-12
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Subject Company: Deltic Timber Corporation
(Commission File
No. 001-12147)
The following is a transcript of a Potlatch Corporation and Deltic Timber Corporation investor call:
THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS
EDITED TRANSCRIPT
PCHQ3 2017 Potlatch Corp Earnings Call and Discussion of
Combination
with Deltic Timber Corp to Create Timberland REIT and Lumber Manufacturer
EVENT DATE/TIME: OCTOBER 23, 2017 / 12:30PM GMT
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Eric J. Cremers Potlatch
CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Jerald W. Richards Potlatch CorporationCFO and VP
John D. Enlow Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Michael J. Covey
Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS
Clyde
Alvin Dillon Vertical Research Partners, LLCPartner
Collin Philip Mings Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research DivisionAnalyst
Gail S. Susan Glazerman Roe Equity Research, LLC - Senior Analyst Paper, Packaging and Forest Products George Leon Staphos BofA Merrill Lynch, Research DivisionMD and
Co-Sector
Head in Equity Research Ketan Mamtora BMO Capital Markets Equity Research - Analyst
Mark Adam Weintraub The Buckingham
Research Group IncorporatedResearch Analyst
Mark William Wilde BMO Capital Markets U.S.Senior Analyst
Paul C. Quinn RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research DivisionAnalyst
Steven Pierre Chercover
D.A. Davidson & Co., Research DivisionMD & Senior Research Analyst
PRESENTATION
Operator
Good morning. My name is Christie, and Ill be your conference operator today.
At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the joint Potlatch and Deltic Investor Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.
I would now like to
turn the call over to Mr. Jerry Richards, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for opening remarks. Sir, you may proceed.
Jerald W. Richards - Potlatch
CorporationCFO and VP
Thank you, Christie, and good morning. Before we start the call, I want to remind everyone that this call will contain forward-looking
statements. Please review the warning statements in our press release, on the presentation slides and in our filings with the SEC concerning the risks associated with these forward-looking statements.
Also, please note that a reconciliation of
non-GAAP
measures can be found on our website at www.potlatchcorp.com.
This call does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or a solicitation of any vote or approval in connection with the proposed merger
between Potlatch and Deltic. Stockholders of both companies are urged to read the joint proxy statement prospectus together with the other important information that will be filed by Potlatch and Deltic with the SEC, including a Registration
Statement on Form
S-4.
I would like to welcome you to the joint Potlatch and Deltic Investor Call and Webcast. With me in
the room are Mike Covey, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Potlatch; Eric Cremers, President and Chief Operating Officer of Potlatch; and John Enlow, President and Chief Executive Officer of Deltic.
This morning, Potlatch and Deltic issued a joint press release announcing a business combination to enhance its position as a leading
timberland REIT and lumber manufacturer. While we are excited to discuss the strategic and financial rationale of bringing these 2 great companies together, I would like to first cover Potlatchs third quarter earnings,
which were also released this morning.
This morning, Potlatch reported GAAP net income of $33.7 million or $0.82 per diluted share in the third quarter.
Excluding amounts related to a lumber swap and an environmental claim related to Avery Landing, our net income was $38.7 million or $0.94 per diluted share. This compares to net income of $24.3 million or $0.59 per diluted share in the
second quarter.
Our Resource segments operating income was $41.8 million in the third quarter compared to $19.5 million last quarter. The doubling
of this segments operating earnings relative to the second quarter was driven by seasonal factors consisting of higher harvest volumes and a larger component of hardwood sawlogs in the South.
In our Wood Products segment, excluding amounts related to a lumber swap, operating income was flat sequentially.
Our Real Estate segment generated operating income of $1.4 million in the third quarter compared to $5.8 million in the second quarter. The decline was primarily due to
the sale of fewer acres.
Our business continues to generate strong cash flow. And this morning, we announced that the board has increased Potlatchs annual
dividend from $1.50 per share to $1.60 per share. We ended the quarter with cash of $117 million, and we have $20 million of long-term debt maturing at the end of 2017 and early 2018 that we expect to repay with cash on hand.
At Avery Landing, we do not anticipate any further environmental charges beyond the $5 million charge that we took in the third quarter. We expect to realize cash tax benefits
of approximately $6 million related to Avery Landing over the next several months. Approximately $4 million of the cash tax benefits will be realized after we sell the property, which we intend to complete by the end of 2017. Included in
our supplemental slides is an overview of our outlook for the fourth quarter.
I will now hand the call over to Mike to discuss the merger with Deltic.
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Thank you, Jerry, and good
morning, everyone. Im excited to be in El Dorado, Arkansas this morning with John Enlow to announce the merger of 2 great companies with a long history of timberland ownership and wood products manufacturing. Potlatch and Deltic share nearly
identical business models in the Resource, Wood Products and Real Estate segments we both manage. The combination significantly increases the scale of the company as we will own nearly 2 million acres of timberland across 6 states. In Wood
Products, we will produce 1.2 billion board feet of lumber and an additional 300 million square feet of panel products. Upon completion of the merger, we will continue to be the timber REIT with the most leverage to lumber prices, and we
will enjoy the upside from the continued improvement in U.S. housing.
Given our similar business models and long history, we felt it was appropriate to continue
the legacy of the 2 companies with the name PotlatchDeltic upon completion of the transaction. The company will be headquartered in Spokane, Washington, and I will serve as Chairman and CEO, and Cremers will continue as President and Chief Operating
Officer. Upon completion of the merger, John will serve as Vice Chairman of PotlatchDeltic, leading the integration effort. The new company will continue to have a presence in El Dorado, which will serve as our Southern operational headquarters.
As you know, Deltic is one of the few remaining C corps in the industry, and the conversion of these assets into a REIT structure will be more tax efficient
and allow PotlatchDeltic to return more capital to shareholders. There are 3 major benefits to the combination of the companies that will provide meaningful synergies and operating improvements going forward. First, there is an opportunity to
increase harvest levels on Deltics timberland by 30% to 40% and convert older and mature stands natural stands of timber into faster-growing plantations. Second, Deltic has been operating at sawmills below a full 2 shift basis. And this
transaction enables an increase in output total output up to 375 million board feet
once additional dry kiln capacity additions are complete in 2018. Finally, while this transaction creates a much larger company, there
is also an opportunity to reduce corporate overhead, which is currently required to run 2 separate standalone public companies.
There are series of slides
accompanying this presentation which provide more deal about the merger and outline the benefits. Before we cover those, let me offer some background about how we got here, and then, John, will provide some comments on why he and his board feel this
is the right combination for Deltic.
We approached Deltic about combining our company several months ago. John joined Deltic in March and quickly identified the
opportunities I mentioned as to optimize harvest levels and mill output. Over the next several months, we continued discussions with John and his team regarding a merger, and we are pleased to have reached an agreement that benefits both companies.
Under the terms of the transaction agreement, Deltic shareholders stockholders will receive 1.8 shares of Potlatch stock for each Deltic share valuing the
company at approximately $1.2 billion, plus approximately $240 million of Deltic debt. Importantly, this stock structure will provide shareholders of both companies with the opportunity to participate in the significant upside potential of
this combination. We are confident that combining our complementary assets and operations will allow us to create stockholder value in excess of what could be achieved by either company independently.
The merger is expected to close in the first half of 2018 subject to the completion of customary closing conditions, including approval by both Potlatch stockholders and Deltic
stockholders in compliance with the applicable Hart-Scott-Rodino requirements. And we look forward to the benefits of the combination.
Now let me turn it over to
John for some comments.
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Thanks, Mike. Let me echo Mikes comments wholeheartedly. Were very excited about the potential of the 2 companies combined to unlock value. As weve indicated in
previous communications for the past many months that Deltic board and I have explored a wide range of strategic options, both internally and externally. We conducted a robust and competitive exploration process with a number of external parties,
while also developing a comprehensive transformation plan to maximize value on a standalone basis. Having considered all the options, the board and I were convinced that this is the best path forward to maximize value for Deltic and for both
companies combined.
Im personally committed to my role as Vice Chairman of the new PotlatchDeltic to work with Mike, the other senior executives and the
Board of Directors to ensure we have a successful execution on the potential of the 2 companies combined to unlock value and to capture the significant upside in the Deltic assets weve highlighted previously.
Now let me turn it back over to Mike for additional comments.
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch
CorporationChairman and CEO
Thanks, John. We very much look forward to working with you to continue our strong presence in Arkansas communities and to
make PotlatchDeltic one of the nations leading timber REITs. Were confident about the financial underpinnings of this merger and the benefits for the stockholders and employees of both companies.
Excluding
one-time
cost needed to achieve the synergies, we expect cash available for distribution, or CAD, per share will be modestly
positive in year 1, and we expect accretion of approximately 5% in year 2. As you can see on Slide 11 in the materials, weve identified an estimated $50 million of operational improvements in synergies that will lead to an increase in
CAD.
On Slide 12, we expect combined CAD to grow from $133 million on a pro forma basis in 2017 to $183 million using the same
benchmark year with run rate synergies achieved.
Were confident in our ability to attain these synergies, especially with Johns knowledge and
experience working with Deltic this year. Upon completion of the merger, we will issue approximately 22 million shares of Potlatch stock to Deltic shareholders. Once the merger is complete, Deltic stockholders will see their dividend increase
more than 7x the current Deltic rate.
To complete the conversion of Deltic to a REIT, PotlatchDeltic will need to purge an estimated $250 million in retained
earnings and profits before the end of 2018. This will be completed with a special dividend of cash or 20% of the amount, and the balance will come from the issuance of shares to all PotlatchDeltic shareholders.
Before opening it up to questions, let me say, again, how excited we are to be combining 2 great companies that will offer investors more scale and liquidity, a larger geographic
footprint, more market diversity and sustainable long-term value. For the employees of each company, there will be more opportunities for growth and advancement.
Were also pleased to continue a strong presence in El Dorado and throughout the rural commodities in Arkansas where both companies operate today. As Jerry
noted in his comments, we continue to have strong earnings from our core business and expect another excellent fourth quarter.
Christie, well now turn the
call over to questions.(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from Gail Glazerman with Roe Equity Research.
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
Gail S. Susan Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLCSenior Analyst Paper, Packaging and Forest Products
I guess, a few questions. In terms of the ramp up in the harvest activity, how quickly do you expect that to happen? What has been the
hold-up
to-date?
Has it been markets or just physical capacity?
John D. Enlow -
Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Gail, this is John. We expect it to happen its actually beginning already. Weve been
working over the past number of months to develop the market, put in place the production capacity. All of that is starting to gain traction in the late third quarter and particularly gaining momentum into the fourth quarter.
And we feel really confident that will carryover into next year. So its underway, and we feel like were off to a good start.
Michael J. Covey -
Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Gail, let me add, I think especially the positioning of the Deltic assets and the Potlatch timberlands in this area of
South Central Arkansas that a number of new mill starts and restarts in this area, which really fit nicely with the timing of an increased harvest level, especially at mature large sawlogs. Conifex here in El Dorado is starting a new mill.
Theyre in the process of that today. We had a lumber company, Canfor, just announced a large expansion at Urbana, just up the road here. I think they announced that this morning or last week. So its a dynamic and growing market and the
timing couldnt be better.
Gail S. Susan Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLCSenior Analyst Paper, Packaging and Forest Products
Okay. And can you talk a little bit about the HBU potential within the Deltic lands? It seems like its maybe a little bit different than your traditional Potlatch HBU?
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Well, Ill speak to it first and then let John add to it. Its certainly a more downstream business than what Potlatch has been involved in, especially up around Little
Rock where there is residential and commercial development that Deltics been in for a long time. But there is also a very large block of rural recreational land in Central Arkansas in the Heber Springs areas and other ideas around Little Rock
that we think is quite suitable for the HBU development work that weve done, which is typically just selling real recreational timberland after weve harvested it. Ill let John add more.
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Yes. So just a
little more color on our existing Real Estate business there in Little Rock. Its anchored by our Chenal Valley development, which is roughly
4,200-acre
mix used master-planned community. And the other
thing that were really excited about and one of the things that attracted us to the combination with Deltic as a partner is to utilize their expertise to basically jump start the opportunity we saw in the rural HBU in the portfolio. So
thats a really nice add and upside going forward.
Gail S. Susan Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLCSenior Analyst Paper, Packaging and Forest
Products
And Mike, this might seem like kind of a weird strange question in the context to today. But a trade publication a couple weeks ago talked about you
looking at another acquisition in Idaho. And Im just wondering, I guess, where you stand strategically from you think youd be able to do incremental deals at this point? Or is the focus all just beyond integrating Deltic?
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Well, we did we completed
a
bolt-on
acquisition in Idaho in the third quarter as well as another property in Alabama in the third quarter. You will see that in our if you look at our cash position, I think we spent a little over
$20 million between the 2 acquisitions combined. And I dont think that I dont think anything with this acquisition or with this merger today really prevents us from continuing to try to grow the company going forward. We have
a strong balance sheet. I think its only going to get stronger, and the cash flows in these Deltic assets are going to continue to grow. And I think were very much still in the market trying to grow the company where it make sense,
particularly with
bolt-on
acquisitions.
Operator
Your next question is from George Staphos with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
George Leon
Staphos - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research DivisionMD and
Co-Sector
Head in Equity Research
Good luck with the
transaction everybody. I guess, my first question, recognizing its day 1 of the announcement, can you talk to what you think the upward and downward tensions might be in the 5% accretion estimate for CAD in year 2 aside from markets, so just
for things that are controllable in your from your perspective?
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Yes. George, this is Eric. The synergies that weve outlined in the presentation deck of $50 million, were highly confident those are achievable. And of those,
theres really 4 big buckets that weve identified. Weve already talked about a couple of those. But Deltic is already well on its way towards achieving a higher harvest levels as well as expanding their lumber production. The REIT
tax savings, its a paper exercise basically. Theres no issues with us getting those synergies in 2018. And the SG&A rationalization, we hope to have that complete in kind of 3 to 6 months post-closing. And we feel really good about
those synergies. Theres additional synergies beyond the synergies weve outlined on this page. Theyre more operational
in nature, things like getting the right log to the right mill, optimizing several cultural practices, best practices and preventative
maintenance programs in the mills. So there is a wide variety of additional operating synergies that we expect to realize. Its going to take us time to get after those. And theyre collectively, theyre large, but
individually, theyre small. But getting back to your question around the plus or minus 5%, I dont think that were expecting to see much variance outside of that 5%. These synergies that weve identified are pretty hard and
fast. And we spend a lot of time in due diligence getting our arms around them, so we feel pretty good about it.
George Leon Staphos - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research
DivisionMD and
Co-Sector
Head in Equity Research
Okay. Ive lot of question there, Eric. Can you comment at all
on the safety programs in the Wood business of Deltic relative to Potlatch? Are there any programs that need to be employed in the new combined entity? And can you talk a little bit about whats the capital required is for that additional kiln
capacity that will allow you to then ramp up? I think you said the production of another
300-million-board-feet-plus
in, I guess, year 2 and thereafter?
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Yes, George, this
is John. Ill comment on those. So on the safety program, first, I guess what I would say is they are very similar safety programs. But as Eric said, part of the opportunity is to look at best practices across the company. Certainly, well
do that, and to the degree that theres learnings and improvements, then we certainly want to bring those in. The in terms of the kiln project, thats at our Waldo Mill. Thats going to start in the very latter phases of this
year and carryover into next year. And its in the ballpark of a
$4-million-project.
Gail S. Susan Glazerman - Roe
Equity Research, LLCSenior Analyst Paper, Packaging and Forest Products
Okay. Very good. My last question, Ill turn over and jump back in queue.
Recognizing in Real Estate, trends vary
quarter-to-quarter,
was there anything from a forward trend standpoint that we should be moderating because of the lower earnings
in 3Q versus 2Q and year ago?
Jerald W. Richards - Potlatch CorporationCFO and VP
Yes. So George, this is Jerry Richards. In terms of Potlatchs Real Estate earnings in the third quarter, our Real Estate business is fairly lumpy. I mean, we had a couple of
larger transactions we completed in the first half of the year. If you recall, our guidance for the year was about 20,000 acres. And when you take what weve done
year-to-date
through the end of the third quarter plus the guidance of about 3,000 acres in Q4, I mean, that will give you kind of a total for the year of 17,000 acres.
Theres nothing to be concerned about. Again, its a lumpy business. At times, it takes a long a bit longer to get funding when the funding sources are from the government, or other factors can delay deals. So what we have is some
transactions that we expected to happen for the year in the fourth quarter, actually slipping and pushing out a little bit. So its just a matter of time. Not any concerns whatsoever with markets or whats happening.
George Leon Staphos - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research DivisionMD and
Co-Sector
Head in Equity Research
Yes. I wasnt actually getting into timing issues, so I appreciate you going through those, just in case, there was anything, again, from a forward trend that we should
monitor in terms of sounding like that was the case. So I appreciate it. Ill turn it over.
Operator
Your next question is from Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital.
Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets Equity ResearchAnalyst
Just first question on the synergies, different buckets. From the 35% incremental lumber production, how much capital will be needed to boost that production, and what sort of a
time line is that? And second related to that is, how much of the increase is baked into your year 2 guidance when youve talked about kind of 5% CAD?
Eric J.
Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
So Ketan, what weve talked about was the Deltic is well on its way towards expanding that
lumber production. Theres just a little bit more capital that needs to be spent on kilns. They will need to add operating hours at their mills. But for the most part, that expansion is well underway and we expect to get to it next year. Some
of it will slip a little bit into full year 2019 because we wont get the benefit of the full kiln in 2018. But very nominal amounts of capital required for us to get that incremental amount of production.
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
And just to add a
little color on to that, I mean, to kind of reinforces Erics point, it really is the kiln project at Waldo that we just talked about, a very small amount of capital. And then at the Ola facility, we invested heavily in a
small-log
line the latter part of last year and optimized bucking system for the existing processing line. And its basically achieving the full potential of those for the remainder of this year and then
carried into next year.
Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets Equity ResearchAnalyst
All right. Thats helpful. And then, Mike, can you just walk us through once again on how this kind of earnings distribution of $250 million will work? Just the mechanics
of this.
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Yes,
Jerry can go through that.
Jerald W. Richards - Potlatch CorporationCFO and VP
Yes. So Ketan, in terms of that $250 million, I mean, what that represents is earnings has built up within Deltics history as a C corp, and as part of converting to a
REIT that has to be distributed to stockholders, not to go to all stockholders, combined Potlatch and Deltic by the end of 2018. And that will come in the form of 80% stock and 20% cash.
Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets Equity ResearchAnalyst
Got it. And thats
helpful. And then would there be any restrictions on sale of any of the assets once the merger is done?
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and
CEO
Any restrictions you said?
Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets Equity
ResearchAnalyst
Yes. Yes.
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
No. This business will we dont look at anything in the portfolio today and think that it needs to be sold or should be sold. We think theyre all a great fit. In
fact, most of the businesses can grow and improve, but theres no restrictions on revaluating any of the anything in the portfolio.
John D. Enlow -
Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
So one thing I would add to that, Ketan, is when we convert Deltics timberland operations to a
REIT, there is a
5-year
kind of
built-in
gain window that we would have to consider. But to Mikes point, that doesnt restrict us from doing thing, but it
certainly would be a factor that we would consider.
Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets Equity ResearchAnalyst
Got it. Okay. Thats helpful. And then just 1 of the question coming back to Real Estate, kind of just give us some thoughts on how you all are thinking about valuing this
business, especially the Real Estate component, the 1 in Little Rock because as you said, its slightly different from what you guys are doing. So just help us think about how you guys thought about valuation there? And also the issue of
absorption, right, because thats another important element.
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Yes, Ketan, it is a slightly different Real Estate model than the one Potlatch operates today. As you know, we generally just sell raw land. We sell that raw land at values that
tend to be multiples of what that land is worth from a timber standpoint. Whereas Deltics real estate business tends to be more downstream. Its real estate development around Chenal Valley as John talked about earlier. I think the great
news is that Deltic is well over half the way through developing that Chenal Valley property. There is a lot of momentum in west Little Rock to continue building out that property. They have a lot of momentum selling both lots and commercial acre
residential lots and commercial acres. So theyre well underway with that. I think the one thing that Potlatch can do to perhaps add value to what Deltic is doing on the real estate front as Mike spoke about is we can further expand
their rural HBU land sales program. I think if you look at our track record over the past 5 to 10 years, weve demonstrated that we can sell we know theres 20,000 acres a year, we call it same-store sales are generally small tracts
of land. But
year-in,
year out, well sell about 20,000 acres of land. And theres opportunities with Deltics land holdings for us to bring similar stratification to their business and realize
that opportunity.
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
John, you want to speak to absorption?
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber
CorporationCEO, President and Director
Yes, Ketan, just add a little more color on the Chenal Valley potential going forward. So part of what weve done
over the past 7 months is looked at the competitive position of all of our businesses, understood what the potential was in terms of kind of
best-in-class
performance.
Part of that for the real estate business was to really understand the market on a deep level kind of the market drivers there in Little Rock and put together a
go-forward
plan that captures the full potential
of absorption in terms of our
go-to-market
strategies, the different products that we offer, all of those kind of things. So the outgrowth of that is, with that work
combined with strengthening commercial activity, we see the absorption going forward being upside to what weve seen over the last couple of years.
Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets Equity ResearchAnalyst
Okay. Thats helpful. And just 1 last question. Youve obviously became now a very large player in Arkansas, in timberland. Im just curious, can you do anything to
kind of draw more converters into your fiber basket?
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Well, it sounds big, but in the scheme of timberland in Arkansas, were still fairly small. I think theres around 15 million private acres in timberland in
Arkansas, another 5 million is public. So we have a fairly small footprint in the grand scheme of things. But I also think if you look at the converters that are in place here, West Fraser has multiple facilities; Interfor, Canfor,
Georgia-Pacific is in a lot of places. All of these are world-class manufacturers. Not to mention the PotlatchDeltic facilities, theres 3 mills as well as an MDF plant now will be when we close. So all these companies have announced capital
additions and expansions in Arkansas. Its a great place to do business. Timberland is plentiful. The proximity of the Texas market is a real plus here. Were a
4-hour
drive to Dallas. And I
dont think theres really anybody positioned closer to that market than these mills in South Central Arkansas. So its an exciting place to do business, and its going to get better.
Operator
Your next question is from Collin Mings with Raymond James.
Collin Philip Mings - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research DivisionAnalyst
Congrats on the transaction. First, just maybe strategically, Mike, just expanding on some of the other questions, just talk a little bit more about just the
concentration of the combined entity in Arkansas. And then, just given this expanded operating platform that the combined entity will have, how you think about moving forward and expanding in other areas in the U.S. South? Maybe outside of that Gulf
South region that youve talked about, again, looking at
bolt-on
acquisitions, but maybe further diversifying in the South just given the expanded platform in particular?
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Well, as you know, the
geographic concentration in Arkansas when Potlatch was a much smaller, certainly, was a risk for us. And mill closures during the financial recession caused us to have to reduce harvest and lose value. But I think not only is that period in time
behind us, but with the Deltic facilities combined with the Potlatch facilities, we just got a lot more options to work with now, not to mention the external customers. So I dont think the geographic timberland concentration to me is a concern
at all in Arkansas with a the wider footprint we have in a number of customers. Our acquisition strategy to grow the company remains focused in the U.S. Central South, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, touching those states. And I
think we have a good platform in all 3 states. Very small footprint in Louisiana that Deltic has, but certainly, in Alabama and Mississippi and here, I think thats where well focus our acquisition and growth efforts. We will not venture
outside of the Gulf Central South into the Southeastern seaboard. Theres just too many too much competition there.
Collin Philip Mings - Raymond
James & Associates, Inc., Research DivisionAnalyst
Okay. Thats helpful color. And then moving to the dividend increase, again, normally the
board, it seems historically has taken a harder look at this a little bit later in the year. Can you just maybe touch on that decision? And how the pending deal is factored into the dividend bump?
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Well, as we mentioned, we have
$117 million in cash at the end of the quarter. That was after completing a
$20-some-million
worth of timber acquisitions in the third quarter and paying our third quarter dividend. So the cash position
of the company continues to increase. The board feels really confident about the combination of these 2 companies going together. And I think the dividend increase time now rather than in December
is just a signal about the confidence they have in the business and our ability to generate cash in the combined businesses. So
its time to return some of that to shareholders in the form of bigger dividend.
Collin Philip Mings - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research
DivisionAnalyst
Understood. But it sounds like a lot of the decision was just kind of based on current operating fundamentals as opposed to any sort of
incremental accretion, which again would seem like extends the runway for future dividend growth. Is that fair?
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch
CorporationChairman and CEO
I think its both. Yes, I think, certainly, our existing business was doing very well, and were very confident these
combined businesses are going to do better. And so hopefully, this is the beginning of a longest stream of dividend increases going forward.
Collin Philip Mings -
Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research DivisionAnalyst
Okay. And then maybe switching to John, just particularly from your position, can you
talk a little bit about how the exchange ratio was established, especially given the clear opportunity that you guys had outlined to better optimize cash flow going forward?
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Yes. So we look at
it, we kind of triangulate it from 3 different perspectives, principally looking at the relative contribution of the 2 companies in terms of their cash flow contribution going forward. That was 1 perspective. The other was, I mentioned that we were
in a competitive process. So obviously, we thought about the value relative to other opportunities on the table. And then, we also squared it back with our view of the underlying value of the net asset value of the company and the asset. So
when we triangulated it in that direction, we felt like we landed in a really great spot that there was a good value for the combined companies going forward.
Collin Philip Mings - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research DivisionAnalyst
Okay. Thats helpful. And then just 1 last one from me as far as a more housekeeping. Just thinking about the combined Real Estate platform, again, a couple of
questions already on this front. But just, Mike, just how you think about capital commitment to that going forward? Again, historically, Deltic had put some more capital in than you guys have. Would you look at kind of ratcheting that up? Are there
potential opportunities to put more capital in some of maybe the legacy Potlatch lands? Or is that something that maybe youd wind down over time just to reduce the risk profile?
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Well, I think once the merger
closes, well certainly take a deeper dive with John and look at what makes sense for the business in terms of how to maximize returns. Were certainly not averse to continuing to invest capital in downstream real estate business, if
thats the best way to convert those assets to cash for the shareholders. So I do not think its going to change our view on any legacy Potlatch land. Its a totally different character of the property thats outside of Little
Rock and the Chenal Valley than anything Potlatch owns. So our land base is strictly with very few exceptions real recreation land. So well scrub it once we get closed. But I think that I think John and his work here over the last
several months is on a good course and understands it well.
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Collin, just to add a little color to that for our capital requirements on the existing real estate business. The important thing to understand is that, that development has been
ongoing for a number of years, and the real heavy capital lift is well behind us. Going forward, its really just the kind of the street infrastructure for the neighborhoods that we open. And so youre talking low
single-digits in terms of millions per year in capital requirements. So fairly modest relative to the cash flow return.
Operator
Your next question comes from Mark Wilde, BMO Capital Markets.
Mark William Wilde - BMO
Capital Markets U.S.Senior Analyst
Congratulations. Just let me come back to the issue of kind of harvest volumes off of the Deltic land. You talked about
kind of pulling them up from the current rate, which I think last year was a little less than 2.5 tons per acre. Im just curious, like is there going to be like a 5 or
10-year
bubble in a sense that
where you really are kind of playing
catch-up
to bring the harvest age down and
clear-off
some of this cumulated inventory? Or should we think about just more of a kind
of a steady and sustained ramp up over time?
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Yes, Mark, this is Eric, Ill take that one. There is a significant amount of mature timber that Deltic has on its ground that we will get after here in the near term. You
will see a ramp up from where they have been operating. And then after, I suppose, 10 years, that will moderate. But these are not huge swings that were talking about. So you will see an increase, but not a huge decline after that.
Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets U.S.Senior Analyst
Okay. I was just trying to
get a sense of, when you think about a big deal one of your competitors did out in Washington State a few years ago, they had several years where they could really accelerate the harvest, and now its coming back to a more of a normal level.
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Yes.
No, this wont have a significant
drop-off.
I mean, it may go down a couple of 100,000 tons from I dont know, if I gave you a range, Id say its 1.8 million to
2.2 million tons a year for basically now to perpetuity.
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
And Mark, the real driver there that make sustainable over time is the change in the forest management practices going forward. Youve heard us talk about, weve got
roughly 23% of our current ownership thats slower growing, higher quality natural stands. So thats mature volume that can be brought to market and then put into faster-growing plantations. And then in our the rest of our
plantation land base, theres significant opportunity to more intensively manage those to up the growth rate across the estate. So that kind of feels in behind the initial surge of mature volume and makes that sustainable over time.
Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets U.S.Senior Analyst
Okay. And then John,
Im just curious will there be some details on just sort of historical numbers on the real estate on your Real Estate business coming out? I went back to a slide deck, we went through with you guys back in May out in Seattle, I think, I
didnt see any numbers on there where you really broke out the financials on the Real Estate component?
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Yes, Mark, were happy to talk with you offline. And we can give you field any questions that you have. Thats probably the most appropriate way to field it.
Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets U.S.Senior Analyst
Okay.
Thats fine. And then the last question I had. Mike, is it possible to get an estimate for what kind of cash costs for the synergies would be? And then any change in control payments?
Jerald W. Richards - Potlatch CorporationCFO and VP
Yes. So Mark, this is Jerry
Richards. I mean, overall, we look at cash costs. Theyre probably somewhere around $20 million. And thats
all-in,
including adviser fees in terms of the transaction, change of control as well
as cost to achieve the synergies. And if you were to break that down, its probably roughly half in each of those 2 buckets, i.e., transaction-specific costs as well as costs to achieve synergies.
Operator
Your next question comes from Steve Chercover with Davidson.
Steven Pierre Chercover - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research DivisionMD & Senior Research Analyst
Congratulations. So a quick question on first of all Deltic and the MDF plant. Is it still the part of the
50-50
JV? And does this deal
trigger change of control? It doesnt sound that way?
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Steve, this is John, Ill field that. We bought out that partnership a few years ago. So its wholly-owned by Deltic and theres no restrictions in terms of deal
implications going forward.
Steven Pierre Chercover - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research DivisionMD & Senior Research Analyst
Okay. And then it looks like the Deltic sawmills, actually, the MDF plant 2 have been operating well below their rated capacity. So once youve finished the kilns and whatever
other debottlenecking, will they be up to that rated capacity?
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Yes, so let me speak to
Del-Tin
first since were on that subject. Youre probably aware we talked about that we had a substantial
press rebuild that took place in August. That was complete in the third or the third week of August to really address some issues that had hobbled us over the last year or so. Were extremely pleased with how that has gone. Were
6-or-so
weeks away from that startup. The startup went great. Were operating in the high 90% uptime. And our run rates on a weekly average basis have far exceeded what
we had in the pro forma for the balance of the year and are actually approaching. And in some cases, ahead of the run rate that we had in the pro forma for next year. So thats been a great success. Product quality is high. Our thin board
percentage is right on target. Thats a really high-margin product for us. So that has gone awesome. Back to your sawmill your question around the sawmills. It really goes back to what weve talked about thus far in the call.
Its realizing the full run rate potential of the investments that have already been made in Ola. Theres the potential for additional kiln investment later on to even further that
at Ola. And then at Waldo, its the kiln project that we talked about for the latter part of the year. And those 2 will put us on
the pace to achieve the numbers that we talked about.
Steven Pierre Chercover - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research DivisionMD & Senior Research
Analyst
A few other quickly. Evidently, Southeastern Asset Management has lost the deal. Do you have any idea whether they will remain shareholders in the merged
company?
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Steve, I cant really speculate on what individual shareholders will do. I guess, what I can say with absolute confidence, we think this is the right path forward, and we
believe shareholders will enthusiastically embrace that.
Steven Pierre Chercover - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research DivisionMD & Senior
Research Analyst
Great. Last one. Theres been very little mention of Deltics oil and gas revenues. So is it just not material with oil at $50?
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Its a meaningful cash flow stream for us. And you can see in our historicals that as oil prices recover, it can be really substantial. And we feel like that
potential is out there at some point.
Operator
Your next question comes from
Chip Dillon with Vertical Research.
Clyde Alvin Dillon - Vertical Research Partners, LLCPartner
I had a quick question. Just first of all, when we look at the Real Estate, the Deltic that division historically, is it fair to say that I mean, in a very rough
sense that, I see the book value is around $60 million. You mentioned a lot of the investment has is behind you in terms of getting that ready for sale. And so, I mean, would a rough valuation of present value of like double that number
be in the ballpark of at least how maybe you guys at Potlatch looked at the valuation as you put together your bid?
Jerald W. Richards - Potlatch
CorporationCFO and VP
So Chip, if I may, this is Jerry Richards. Im going to jump in and just say its pretty mature to start talking valuation of
individual components. We will be filing, as we mentioned in comments, an
S-4
here in the next 30, 60 days. And in there, we will provide pro forma financial statements. So we have a fair bit of work left to
do on that, and that information will be coming.
Clyde Alvin Dillon - Vertical Research Partners, LLCPartner
Understood. And then second question has to do with the taxation on of special dividend. This is the first conversion. And I know this is happening inside of the new
Potlatch that weve seen since the 3.8% additional Medicare tax, Ill say it very objectively, was imposed on folks. And I noticed in at least on the term sheet that you put up that the 1 pager, that you mentioned
that maybe some people would pay a 20% tax. I dont know anybody thats going to pay 20% tax on federal dividends. That would avoid the 3.8% Medicare tax. If you know how to do that, let me know. So
its really 23.8%. And then then, of course, if you have folks in California, that number could get up close to 30%. And so
obviously, since the full
$250 million is going to be reflected on peoples 1099s, its going to actually require a number of individual
shareholders and maybe even other entities for (inaudible) et cetera to have to dig in their pockets to pay that tax. And I just didnt know if you thought because things were different from like when you all, at Potlatch, did your conversion
now that we have this Affordable Care Act Medicare tax of 3.8%, if you thought maybe you might want to change that to like
25-75,
and if youre open to that because that might be an issue.
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
So Chip, on terms of all of
those factors, Medicare tax, et cetera, I mean, our intent in the slides was just to stay in the high level. So youre right. Those are all considerations that shareholders would have to consider. I think its pretty safe to say that
were pretty confident in the
80-20
split that we didnt not necessarily thinking about jumping that cash component up.
Clyde Alvin Dillon - Vertical Research Partners, LLCPartner
Okay. And then I know I
think it was you, Eric, you mentioned that the
built-in
profits period was 5 years. I thought it used to be 10 years. Did that change somehow? Or why is that 5 years, for the tax on the
built-in
gains on the Deltic side once they convert?
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Yes, Chip, that actually did change here fairly recently. If you recall one of our large competitors converted to a REIT in 2010. And that
built-in
gain period only applied to them for 5 years because that change was made before that window lapse. So it is 5 years going forward for the Deltic timberlands related operations.
Clyde Alvin Dillon - Vertical Research Partners, LLCPartner
Okay. And then one last one.
On Slide 12 of the presentation, which shows the CAD bridge, you mentioned 20% of the $50 million is tax savings. Now I noticed, for example, last year, Deltics tax expense was $3 million. I know there was that 1 year a couple
of years ago it was higher because, I guess, there was a lot there were a lot of sales. But I mean, I know Potlatchs effective tax rate with all the non-reactivities is 15% to 20%. So I guess, my question is this is, does that 20%
include the fact that these synergies will now happen within partly within Deltic and now that Deltic is not a C corp, you sort of are giving credit for them not having to pay tax on at the same rate as they would have had to pay. Does that
make sense? Is that fair thats also included?
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
The simplest way to think about, Chip, is that, today, Deltic is not harvesting near the rate they will be in the future. At those higher harvest levels, theyre were
doing the business. We call it Resource. Well be generating significantly higher earnings and cash flow. And of course, as a timber REIT, those earnings are passed through to shareholders. Whereas as the C corp, theyre taxed at C corp
rates. So that $10 million is from the higher harvest volumes that we anticipate getting here shortly.
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO,
President and Director
Chip, this is John. The other thing I would add to that just as a reminder that theres a little bit of noise in our historical tax,
particularly, in 2016 where we had the
1-year
benefit of the TREE Act, which reduced our effective tax rate to 20%.
Clyde Alvin Dillon - Vertical Research Partners, LLCPartner
Okay. And just a housekeeping note. Should we assume theres not a call tomorrow since we since you all have reported and we can call you today?
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
That is correct, Chip. We,
actually, in the 2 press releases this morning merger announcement as well as the earnings release indicated that call had been canceled.
Operator
Your next question is from Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research.
Mark Adam Weintraub - The
Buckingham Research Group IncorporatedResearch Analyst
First, just wanted to on the lumber side, just to make sure I understand. So the
420 million board feet. Is that where youre expecting lumber production to end up? Or is there as some of these projects are finalized, does this go higher than the 420 million board feet?
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Yes. So Mark, this is
Eric. Our current plans are to continue along the path that Deltic has outlined, ramping up the production of their mills. Our view and I think Mike spoke to it in the notes is that we expect to get their mills up to combined around 375 million
board feet. Certainly, Potlatch has got a demonstrated track record. Every year, we find ways to increase our production and shipment levels. Each of the last 2 years, weve been up in the 7% to 10% a year increase. We hope to do that with the
Deltic mills going forward. But for now, I think the plan is to get them up to 375 million feet.
Mark Adam Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group
IncorporatedResearch Analyst
Okay. And so where in the synergy and operational efficiencies table, you talk about $17 million, $18 million
from expanded lumber production. That includes going from where to where?
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Well, that would include taking them from their historic volumes of around 275 million feet up to the 375 million feet that we just spoke about.
Mark Adam Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group IncorporatedResearch Analyst
Okay.
So for a 100 million board feet an incremental $17 million, $18 million. So presumably, youre using in that analysis youre using kind of current run rates of profitability, or pricing and input costs.
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Correct.
Mark Adam Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group IncorporatedResearch Analyst
And then on the so on the harvest increase where you talk about an incremental $10 million of CAD, is that also using current profitability levels? Or does that bake in
a likely improvement in Southern saw timber pricing?
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Well, we do anticipate modest improvements in pricing in the South. However, the majority of that uplift in CAD from the Resource business is going to come from the higher harvest
volumes.
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
So let me just kind of add a little color to both of those questions. We normally would report earnings in early November. With this deal, were working really hard to try to
pull that up and anticipate well release earnings tonight. And in that earnings release, well provide guidance on where we expect to land in terms of volumes for the year for all of our businesses. So youll be able to see in there
kind of what the point is for this year in terms of harvest volume, mill productivity, all of those kind of things.
Mark Adam Weintraub - The Buckingham Research
Group IncorporatedResearch Analyst
Okay. And so where also on a net basis would your saw timber harvest be relative to your consumption this is just
for the Deltic business, for the consumption of saw timber when you kind of hit the run rates built into the post-synergies and operating efficiencies being realized?
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Yes. So I
dont have a precise number for you. But I think its fair to say that with the pretty significant ramp up in, as we talked about in the range of 30%, 40%, our harvest will generally exceed our internal usage. And certainly, the real
opportunity is to rationalize marketing for our margin optimization by further utilizing external markets where that makes sense.
Mark Adam Weintraub - The
Buckingham Research Group IncorporatedResearch Analyst
Great. Could you just build on that last one? I didnt fully understand what you meant on the
last point.
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber CorporationCEO, President and Director
Well, its a little bit of kind of going back to the historical approach of Deltic was more bringing the majority of its logs, if not all of its logs also its own lands into
its internal mills. And we see a real marketing opportunity and freight optimization, margin optimization opportunity that were already starting to execute on and certainly will even further expand in the combination with Potlatch team.
Mark Adam Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group IncorporatedResearch Analyst
Okay. So based part of that 35% the $17 million, $18 million of profitability improvement is a function of is marketing changes as
opposed to just incremental production. Is that how to understand that?
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and
Director
When you say marketing changes, what do you mean by that, Mark?
Mark Adam Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group IncorporatedResearch Analyst
Well, I thought just I thought I was just repeating what I heard, maybe I heard wrong. They had previously been internally using all of the saw timber. And now some of
its going to go to other buyers who may be are going to effectively pay more than if they had been used internally?
John D. Enlow - Deltic Timber
CorporationCEO, President and Director
Yes. So I dont think we want to confuse the issue there. The principal and primary driver is going to be the
volume increase. And theres some additional added benefit from margin rationalization. But certainly, the heavy hitter is the volume increase.
Operator
You have a
follow-up
question from Gail Glazerman with Roe Equity Research.
Gail S. Susan Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLCSenior Analyst Paper, Packaging and Forest Products
Just to get to a last few couple of quick market questions and housekeeping. That guidance you gave for Wood Products in the fourth quarter, does that include anything from the
swap? And then just generally, if you can talk about what youre seeing in Southern pricing maybe looking out to 2018 and also some thoughts on the trade dispute?
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Yes. So Gail, so we
have not included anything in the fourth quarter for the swap. As you know, we took a write-down of the swap in Q3. That particular product, Southern Yellow Pine, 2 x 6, is currently trading very close to the swap price. So we dont expect much
of a change from here. Its too early to start talking a lot about 2018. But I think most prognosticators FEA, RISI, et cetera, anticipate higher lumber prices next year, modestly higher lumber prices next year over this year. So certainly,
that will benefit our Wood Products business, and that will also flow into our Resource business. As you know, 70% of our sawlogs in Idaho are indexed to lumber prices. So we expect our Resource business to benefit as well.
Gail S. Susan Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLCSenior Analyst Paper, Packaging and Forest Products
Okay. I was kind of asking more just specifically about Southern log prices for next year. Any sign of movement or momentum?
Eric J. Cremers - Potlatch CorporationPresident, COO and Director
Yes. So I think
Southern log prices, it seemed to have found the bottom. Youre seeing a ton of steel go up in the South. I mean, just look at these announcements from Canfor here just recently. And GP announced exploring a new mill. I mean, theres tons
of steel going up in the U.S. South. And were not yet at levels of consumption to where we were
pre-recession.
But we are working our way towards that
80-million-ton
a year number across the U.S. South. And I think and do foresee, well see modest improvements. And I do think you might start to see a little bit next year.
Gail S. Susan Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLCSenior Analyst Paper, Packaging and Forest Products
Okay. On the trade dispute, just any developments or thoughts how that might payout with the final [deed] is coming in place and just continuing negotiations?
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Yes, Gail, discussions continue government to government on, I think, a fairly regular basis, but I dont see any big cracks in negotiations on either side. The final
determination of the CBD and AD, I think, is November 13 or 14, something like that. But we continue to believe, as members of the
U.S. softwood lumber coalition
that a quota system is best and I think best serves the long-term interest of the industry in the United States, and we continue to push for that.
Michael J. Covey
- Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Christie, I think we have time for one more question before our time runs out here.
Operator
Sure. And your next question is from Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets.
Paul C. Quinn - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research DivisionAnalyst
Just I think I read
through something the expected time on the transaction close is first half of 2018. Maybe you could talk about expected date of shareholder voting, and what other regulatory approvals are required?
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
So just a big picture. We talked
about closing in the first half of the year. Hopefully, its towards late in the first quarter, early in the second, we hope well file the
S-4
and the proxy in about 40 to 60 days. And the
shareholder votes take they have I think its
20-day
minimum waiting period before the shareholder votes and neither company has scheduled those yet. So Id expect those are sometime in the
early first quarter. Hart-Scott-Rodino approval through the U.S. Government is probably the pacing item. Were not concerned about getting the approval, but theres a regulatory period that we have to go through to get that. And so all
those things still point us on track for sometime in the first half of the year and hopefully towards the end of the first quarter.
Operator
Weve reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Mike Covey for any closing remarks.
Michael J. Covey - Potlatch CorporationChairman and CEO
Thank you, Christie. Thank you
for all the investors. For your questions, Jerry will be available all day to answer your questions. And we look forward to speaking with you. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude todays conference call. You may now disconnect.
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