Cognac Peeps Over China's Wall - Analyst Blog
September 30 2011 - 4:15AM
Zacks
The world’s leading cognac makers,
Hennessy, Remy Martin, Martell and Courvoisier, are eyeing their
growth potential in newer markets for the 97% of the French spirit,
which is exported each year, and take it into the promising lands
of Vietnam, Taiwan and Russia.
Hennessy is rated as the biggest
cognac player, and while LVMH, the world's largest luxury goods
group, owns 66% of its stake, the remaining 34% is owned by the
world's top spirits maker Diageo Plc.(DEO), who
boasts the Johnnie Walker whisky and Smirnoff vodka. Courvoisier is
the smallest among these four cognac houses and is owned by
U.S.-based Fortune Brands Inc. (FO).
Diageo, Plc. the maker of the
cognac brand Hennessey, believes in line with the other players and
banks upon the potential of the emerging markets. In 2010, China
emerged as the second biggest consumer of cognac as China consumed
20 million bottles of Cognac between January and September
2010.
Johnnie Walker outsold the whole
cognac industry this year. In May 2011, the world’s biggest
distiller tried to win customers with $2,000 worth bottles of its
limited-release 1910 edition whisky.
The whisky market in China has
developed in a way that is unsustainable for mid-sized players.
Meanwhile, Brown-Forman and Bacardi have experienced subsequent
volume loss in China. Only Pernod Ricard's Chivas, Regal and
Diageo's Johnnie Walker Black, to an extent.
According to an industry magazine,
‘Impact’, cognac consumption in China rose 8.5% to 11.3 million
12-bottle cases in 2010, as actual sales rose 30%, making the
industry worth a historic annual high of more than $2.5
billion.
Cashing on higher sales, the cognac
industry, based in south-western France, has recovered from the
global downturn in 2008 and 2009. The big players of the cognac
industry do not want to rely on a single market, and they also
believe that a wider spread of exports will help cushion cognac if
the hard times return again.
Diageo Plc.’s fiscal 2011 net
income from continuing operations grew 16.1% to £2.02 billion ($3.3
billion) from the year-ago period. Earnings per share came in at 76
pence ($1.24 per ADR), compared to the year-ago quarter.
Fortune Brands' adjusted earnings
of 71 cents a share for the second quarter of fiscal 2011 missed
the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 97 cents and declined 5.1% from the
prior-year quarter. Earnings, on a GAAP basis, were 65 cents per
share compared with $1.17 per share posted in the year-ago
quarter.
While Diageo holds a Zacks #1 Rank,
which translates into a short-term ‘Strong Buy’ rating, Fortune
Brands holds a Zacks #4 Rank implying a short term ‘Sell’
rating.
DIAGEO PLC-ADR (DEO): Free Stock Analysis Report
FORTUNE BRANDS (FO): Free Stock Analysis Report
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