SMFG $8 Billion Issue Plan Spooks Bank Holders; 'Who's Next?', Some Ask
April 09 2009 - 11:35PM
Dow Jones News
Haunted by the specter of their holdings being diluted,
investors in Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (8316.TO)
scrambled to sell the stock early Friday after the bank said it
plans to issue up to $8 billion in new common shares to shore up
its creaking capital base.
With sell orders outweighing buy orders by about 4 to 1, shares
in SMFG, Japan's third-biggest bank by assets, failed to trade
early Friday. They ended the morning session in Tokyo quoted
ask-only at their daily technical limit-down level of Y3,110,
dragging down other banks as observers wondered who might be next
to issue fresh shares. The Y3,110 level is 14% below Thursday's
close of Y3,610, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average was up
0.5%.
Like other Japanese banks, SMFG's fortunes have been roiled by
inflated credit costs amid worsening business conditions. Losses of
Y53.2 billion on its investment in Barclays PLC (BCS) in which SMFG
paid about $930 million to take a 2% stake last June also weighed
on its earning outlook.
A SMFG bank executive said at a briefing yesterday that the
lender needed to strengthen its capital base both in quality and
quantity amid the economic downturn and deteriorating business
conditions.
The bank's plan to issue up to Y800 billion in common stock
within a one-year period starting April 17, would be the
fourth-biggest common stock offering on record by a Japanese
company, according to data firm Dealogic.
Jangling investors' nerves further, the issuance plan comes on
top of a severe profit warning. Thursday SMFG also said its now
expects a net loss of Y390 billion for the fiscal year ended March
31, compared with its previous forecast for a net profit of Y180
billion.
"Although the bank's loss estimate was the bigger-than-expected,
we kind of knew the bank would likely fall into the red," said a
bank analyst at Japanese brokerage firm. "But (the plan to) raise
this much capital, that was quite surprising."
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the analyst said, "it looks
like the capital boost is more for covering losses rather than
having a buffer for future business strategy."
SMFG itself said the capital injection could cause share
dilution of up to 30%. But another analyst at a foreign brokerage
said the share drop could be deeper than 30%, falling further until
investors see more specific justifications for the capital
boost.
At the shares' current value, the bank's market capitalization
stands at about Y2.11 trillion: Y800 billion would be equivalent to
about 38% of that.
So far, among Japanese major financial institutions, Mitsubishi
UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306.TO) last year raised Y400 billion
and Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604.TO) raised about Y276 billion this
year by issuing common stock.
While the U.S. financial peers enjoyed a rise overnight, Tokyo
market participants just don't see any reasons to buy shares in the
Japanese banking sector, according to Mitsushige Akino, general
manager at Ichiyoshi Asset Management, citing domestic banks' own
problems such as massive equity holdings and the economic downturn.
"We also wonder if SMFG can raise that much capital," Akino
said.
SMFG's capital boost also weighed on Topix's banking subsector,
sending the sector down 4%, compared with Topix's 0.5% rise. Among
major banks, Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411.TO) took a beating
as investors became wary of another possible new share issuance by
Japan's second largest lender.
"People are now wondering who's the next (after SMFG)?," said a
banking analyst at a Japanese brokerage, saying that until Mizuho
makes its intentions clear regarding any plans to boost capital,
shares in the bank, Japan's second-biggest by assets, could be
squeezed.
Unlike Japan's biggest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ, which has raised
capital by issuing common shares, Mizuho so far has only raised
capital by issuing preferred securities and subordinated bond
several times, which doesn't help strengthen its core capital
ratio, known as Tier-1.
Mizuho was down 9.1% at Y199 midday, while MUFG was off 2.5% at
Y506.
-By Atsuko Fukase, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-5255-2957;
atsuko.fukase@dowjones.com
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