A.G. Edwards Spring Wheat Forecast
May 08 2006 - 11:00AM
PR Newswire (US)
Tour Through Wheat-growing States Shows Signs of Trouble ST. LOUIS,
May 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- After recently completing his sixth
annual tour across the principal wheat-growing areas of Oklahoma,
Texas, Kansas and Nebraska, A.G. Edwards grain analyst Bill Nelson
is predicting one of the worst winter wheat crops in the past ten
years. Because of extensive drought conditions and fires, Nelson
observed especially poor crop conditions in Oklahoma and Texas.
Nelson's findings served to validate USDA figures from early April
that rated only 10 percent of the wheat crop in the two states at
"good to excellent," a figure that is worse than comparable
estimates in each of the past five years. Based on the findings
from his trip, Nelson's forecasted production level of 570 million
bushels for the four-state region would be the lowest total for
that region since 2002, and only the third time since 1996 that its
combined wheat production has totaled less than 600 million
bushels. "It's safe to say that winter wheat is not off to a good
start, and this is definitely something the market is going to be
concerned with as we move into the production season for other
areas of the country," Nelson said, noting that wheat prices are up
nearly 30 percent in some markets. "Wheat prices are already
elevated, and any significant events we encounter through the rest
of the growing season -- such as the conditions we have seen so far
-- could have a ripple effect that consumers would eventually see,
because of the many foodstuffs that rely on the wheat supply."
While Nelson cautions that there is still plenty of time left in
the growing season and unpredictable weather patterns can play a
key role in the final production numbers, the difficulties with the
winter wheat crop could eventually translate into mild price
increases that would actually affect consumers directly. "Good
wheat production in other regions, such as the northern Plains, may
be able to make up for some of the losses we're seeing now," Nelson
said, "but if we have any problems in other areas later this
summer, the combined effect could cause supply shortages and weigh
heavily on the markets." During the second week of April, Nelson
set out from Oklahoma City on an expedition through the major wheat
production areas of the four-state region to get a first-hand view
of current crop conditions. Covering over 1,300 miles in four days,
Nelson made numerous observations while passing through the area
and also ventured out into the fields on foot to record important
measurements and closely examine the overall status of the winter
wheat crops in this area. In addition to the annual spring wheat
tour, Nelson also embarks each year on a summer crop tour through
eight Midwest states to gauge the production levels for corn and
soybeans, releasing his predictions in advance of USDA figures for
the same crops. This year's wheat production count from the USDA is
due out May 12. About A.G. Edwards Drawn to the firm's client-first
philosophy, individuals and businesses have turned to A.G. Edwards
& Sons, Inc. for sound advice and access to a wide array of
investment products and services that can help them meet their
financial goals and objectives. Founded in 1887, A.G. Edwards and
its affiliates employ nearly 7,000 financial consultants in more
than 700 offices nationwide and two European locations in London
and Geneva. More information can be found on
http://www.agedwards.com/ . How we do business A.G. Edwards
generally acts as a broker-dealer, but may act as an investment
advisor on designated accounts, and the firm's obligations will
vary with the role it plays. When working with clients the firm
generally acts as a broker-dealer unless specifically indicated in
writing. To better understand the differences between brokerage and
advisory services, please consult "Important Information About Your
Relationship With A.G. Edwards" on
http://www.agedwards.com/disclosures . A.G. Edwards & Sons,
Inc. Member SIPC DATASOURCE: A.G. Edwards CONTACT: Byron Goodrich
of A.G. Edwards, +1-314-955-3235, Web site:
http://www.agedwards.com/
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