Citigroup Becomes The Perfect Hedge And Volume Follows
September 02 2009 - 1:19PM
Dow Jones News
Up, down or sideways, shares of Citigroup Inc. (C) are the
flavor of the month on Wall Street.
Trading in Citigroup shares has skyrocketed since the beginning
of August as market participants look for intraday hedging
opportunities among a small group of beaten-down financial services
stocks. Volume in its shares has been particularly strong in the
past two weeks when Citi has regularly accounted for nearly
one-fifth of NYSE Composite volume.
Part of the increased volume has to do with bets that Citigroup
can come out of the credit crisis without further damage. A bigger
driver, though, is that Citi's recent higher share price - the
stock gained 54% in August, and has quadrupled since March - has
made it easier to short.
In the wake of a 40% pick-up in U.S. stocks since early March,
traders are playing for what they expect is an inevitable pullback,
according to the heads of several Wall Street trading desks. In
that scenario, especially when buying shares in a shaky financial
company, it's important to mitigate risk by finding something else
to short.
If, for instance, a trader is going to hold an intraday position
in Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) in a bet they are worth
more than current market value, he limits his downside by shorting
Citi.
"This is a mechanical trade, not a fundamental one," says Kevin
Kruszenski, director of equity trading for KeyBanc Capital
Markets.
Hedge funds, some day traders and several other market
participants are using this barbell approach to stay neutral on the
banking sector with a little bias intraday toward a specific
stock.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is seeing a similar, albeit much
smaller, volume increase. The bank may be easy to short, but since
it's at about $16 a share, speculative buyers see more upside with
Citi, which is around $4.50.
Other banks, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), just don't
work as a hedge, as they won't necessarily trade in tandem with a
beaten down bank. Citigroup, on the other hand, has the volume,
share price, and weakened stature to be the perfect hedge.
In the past, some traders may have shied away from the highly
volatile shares of companies as distressed as Fannie, Freddie and
American International Group Inc. (AIG). But by hedging with
positions in Citigroup, market participants have leapt into all
three as they've been able to mitigate some of the downside risk
inherent in the highly speculative companies.
The strategy also works because each of these stocks are so
liquid that traders can work under the assumption they won't have
to hold any part of the trade overnight, taking a page from the
playbook of high frequency funds.
Last year, Citigroup usually accounted for around 3% of NYSE
Composite volume. On Monday and Tuesday this week, it accounted for
20%. Short volume, or the number of shares sold short over the
course of a day, made up about 50% of overall volume in Citigroup
shares Tuesday, compared with less than 35% in early August.
High frequency funds, which often account for more than half of
stock market trading, are helping facilitate the new trading
strategies, and profiting in the process thanks to rebates.
Rebates involve fees that exchanges pay certain market
participants for taking one side of a trade. High frequency funds
have grasped onto the rebates system as a certain money maker,
sometimes even willing to take a loss on a trade in hopes the
rebate will keep them in the green.
-By Geoffrey Rogow; Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2179;
geoffrey.rogow@dowjones.com