3M May Get Leverage From Inventory Restocking
August 17 2009 - 3:32PM
Dow Jones News
A little additional demand could go a long way toward reviving
profits at 3M Co. (MMM), the diversified industrial group.
As much as two-thirds of the 3M's sales are tied to industrial
staples, products such as adhesives, coatings, films and packaging
materials that are consumed in larger quantities whenever companies
increase their production.
The stock reached a 52-week high at the end of last week,
pushing its market value back above $50 billion and ranking it
second among industrials to only General Electric Co. (GE).
The Minnesota-based company makes thousands of products, ranging
from Scotch tape and Post-It Notes to furnace filters and medical
supplies. The company is considered an indicator of market
conditions across a variety of consumer and industrial sectors.
Analysts say even modest levels of inventory restocking by
manufacturers this fall will boost 3M's income and could usher in
more substantial and sustained improvement in end-market demand
during 2010.
"Any pickup is going to be seen quickly" at 3M, said Adam Fleck,
an analyst for Morningstar Inc. "They're going to get a really nice
pop in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2010."
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW), another bellwether, reported a
sequential improvement in quarterly revenue Monday, though all of
its business segments remain sharply lower than a year ago.
After missing Wall Street analysts' earnings estimates for two
straight quarters, 3M reported higher-than-anticipated earnings and
revenue for the second quarter ended June 30.
The company declined to make executives available for an
interview with Dow Jones Newswires. But in comments to Wall Street
analysts last month, Chairman and Chief Executive George Buckley
warned that the dimensions of the improving demand remain
unclear.
Rising raw material prices and anemic consumer spending could
keep sales and profit under pressure. "It's too early and too
uncertain to celebrate some kind of recovery," Buckley said.
The company was caught in Monday's broad market sell-off,
recently down 1.8% at $70.03, though held firmer than General
Electric or Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), another closely watched guide
to broader investor confidence in an economic recovery.
Some analysts contend that 3M could support a higher price based
on the company's ability to generate higher margins. In the second
quarter, 3M's pre-tax operating margin rose to 22.6% from 21% a
year earlier, despite that sales in the quarter dropped 15%.
Besides aggressively cutting its work force and other overhead
costs in recent quarters, 3M's margins traditionally have benefited
from the company's knack for lowering costs by applying its
products and processes across multiple business lines.
An estimated 80% of 3M's sales come from items made with
ingredients, technologies and assembly processes provided by the
company, according to a recent report from Jefferies & Co.
"What differentiates 3M is its ability to layer up to dozen
technologies on a product and consequently tailor it to a specific
market niche," said Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander.
-By Bob Tita, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4129;
robert.tita@dowjones.com