TransGlobe Energy Corporation 2014 Guidance and Mid-Quarter Update
for Q4 2013
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwired - Dec 9, 2013) - TransGlobe
Energy Corporation ("TransGlobe" or the "Company") (TSX:TGL)
(NASDAQ:TGA) is pleased to provide guidance for 2014 and a
mid-quarter update for the fourth quarter of 2013. All dollar
values are expressed in United States dollars unless otherwise
stated.
HIGHLIGHTS
- 2014 Production Guidance of 20,000 to 21,000 Bopd (mid-point of
20,500 Bopd)
- 20,500 Bopd represents an 11% increase over 2013 estimated
production of 18,500 Bopd
- 2014 Funds Flow Guidance of $146 million ($1.93 per share)
- Using 20,500 Bopd (mid-point of guidance) and $100/Bbl Brent
pricing
- 2014 funds flow sensitivity to pricing of $15 million ($0.20
per share) per $10/Bbl Brent pricing
- 2014 Capital Exploration and Development Guidance of $100
million
- Egypt $94 million (94%) and Yemen $6 million (6%)
- Exploration $32 million (32%) and Development $68 million
(68%)
- 51 wells (46 net wells), facilities and extensive seismic
- Increase of 22% over 2013 forecasted capital expenditures of
$82.3 million (excluding bonus payments on new concessions)
- 68% of 2014 funds flow guidance of $146 million
- TransGlobe funds flow guidance of 18,509 Bopd in October and
19,021 Bopd in November
- TransGlobe has collected $253.4 million year to date from EGPC.
The Company is in discussions with Egyptian authorities to obtain
further collections prior to year end and expects minimum
collections for the year to be at least $270 million, which
represents a 72% increase over 2012 collections.
TRANSGLOBE 2014 GUIDANCE
2014 Estimated Production and Funds Flow from Operations
Production guidance for 2014 is expected to range between 20,000
and 21,000 barrels of oil per day ("Mopd"). The mid-point of 20.5
MBopd represents an 11% increase over 2013 estimated production of
18.5 MBopd.
The significant variables in production estimates include the
proportion of the year that Block S-1 in Yemen is on production and
development drilling results in Egypt.
The mid-point of 20.5 MBopd includes the following
assumptions:
- Egypt production of 19.4 MBopd (includes West Gharib, West Bakr
and East Ghazalat only)
- Yemen production of 1.1 MBopd (includes Block 32 and Block S-1
(on production 6 months of 2014))
Funds flow from operations ("funds flow") for 2014 is forecast
to be $146 million ($1.93 per share) based on an average Brent oil
price of $100.00/Bbl using the mid-point of production guidance of
20.5 MBopd.
An increase or decrease of $10.00/Bbl in the price of Brent
would cause a corresponding increase or decrease in funds flow of
$15 million ($0.20 per share). Funds flow would be expected to be
$161 million ($2.13 per share) at $110.00/Bbl Brent and $131
million ($1.73 per share) at $90.00/Bbl Brent.
The 2014 funds flow guidance of $146 million ($100.00/Bbl Brent)
represents an 8% increase over 2013 estimated funds flow of $135
million (based on estimated average Brent of $106.32/Bbl in 2013).
If $110.00/Bbl Brent pricing is used, the 2014 funds flow of $161
million would represent a 19% increase over 2013 estimated funds
flow.
Funds flow from operations is a measure that represents cash
generated from operating activities before changes in non-cash
working capital and may not be comparable to measures used by other
companies.
2014 Capital Guidance (Exploration and Development)
The Company expects to spend $100 million on exploration and
development projects in 2014. The Company will fund these
expenditures through cash generated from operating activities and
working capital.
The following table summarizes the 2014 Capital Guidance:
|
TransGlobe Net Capital ($MM) |
Gross Well Count |
Development |
Exploration |
Total |
(wells) |
Wells |
Projects |
Wells |
Seismic |
Devel |
Expl |
Total |
Eastern Desert |
$ 50.1 |
$ 9.3 |
$ 13.2 |
$ 14.7 |
$ 87.3 |
30 |
13 |
43 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Western Desert |
$ 1.5 |
$ 1.0 |
$ 3.8 |
- |
$ 6.3 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Egypt Totals |
$ 51.6 |
$ 10.3 |
$ 17.0 |
$ 14.7 |
$ 93.6 |
32 |
16 |
48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yemen Totals |
$ 2.8 |
$ 3.6 |
- |
- |
$ 6.4 |
3 |
|
3 |
TransGlobe Totals |
$ 54.4 |
$ 13.9 |
$ 17.0 |
$ 14.7 |
$100.0 |
35 |
16 |
51 |
Splits (%) |
68% |
32% |
100% |
69% |
31% |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MID Q4 2013 UPDATE
ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT
West Gharib, Arab Republic of Egypt (100% working interest,
operated)
Operations and Exploration
The Company drilled two wells since the end of the third quarter
resulting in an oil well at Hana and one dry hole at Fadl. Year to
date the Company has drilled 17 wells resulting in 15 oil wells and
two dry holes at West Gharib.
The rig is currently drilling a development well at Hana and is
scheduled to drill nine wells in West Gharib during Q1 and Q2 of
2014 prior to moving to the new Northwest Gharib Concession for the
balance of 2014.
Production
Production averaged 12,000 Bopd in October and 11,900 Bopd in
November. Well stimulations and completions have been ongoing but
new production additions have been offset by natural declines and
higher than anticipated levels of well servicing. Currently, six
wells are waiting for servicing to be conducted in December with an
additional five wells scheduled for stimulation during December and
January.
West Bakr, Arab Republic of Egypt (100% working interest,
operated)
Operations and Exploration
The Company drilled three wells since the end of the third
quarter resulting in two oil wells (H and K fields) and one dry
hole (M field). Year to date the Company has drilled 15 wells at
West Bakr resulting in 14 oil wells and one dry hole.
The drilling rig is currently drilling in H field and is
scheduled to continue working in West Bakr with 17 wells planned
for 2014.
Production
Production averaged approximately 6,000 Bopd in October and
5,500 Bopd in November. November production was lower due to a
number of pump changes and workovers along with service rig
mechanical issues that hampered well servicing efficiency. An
additional service rig has been contracted on a short-term basis in
order to alleviate the servicing back-log and increase
production.
East Ghazalat Block, Arab Republic of Egypt (50% working
interest)
Operations and Exploration
No wells were drilled subsequent to the quarter.
The Abu Roash oil zone in the North Dabaa 1x Jurassic
Gas/Condensate discovery (Q3) was completed and tested in October
using a workover rig. The Abu Roash was perforated and flowed
approximately 100 Bopd with a 45% water cut on a short flow test
with nitrogen lift. The well has been suspended pending further
evaluation.
The Operator and the Company plan to drill five wells (2.5 net
wells to TransGlobe) in 2014.
Production
Production from East Ghazalat averaged 216 Bopd to TransGlobe in
October and 367 Bopd to TransGlobe in November.
Production increases in November were due to pump replacements
and well workovers which occurred in October.
South Alamein, Arab Republic of Egypt (100% working interest,
operated)
Operations and Exploration
The Company drilled one exploration well resulting in a dry hole
at Taef and is currently drilling the West Manar prospect.
Taef #1, the first well of a planned two well exploration
program, commenced drilling in the fourth quarter and reached a
total depth of 7,435 feet in November 2013. The well was plugged
and abandoned. The well cost approximately $2.1 million to drill
and abandon.
The rig is currently drilling the West Manar prospect
approximately 25 kilometers west of the Taef prospect. The planned
7,365 foot West Manar well is targeting an estimated 11 million
barrels of P mean un-risked prospective resources in the
Cretaceous. The estimated prospective resources were independently
evaluated as of December 31, 2012 by DeGolyer and McNaughton Canada
Limited as disclosed in the January 11, 2013 press release.
The Company has not provided guidance for any wells in 2014 due
to the prolonged delays in receiving military approvals for new
wells. The company has the financial capacity to increase the 2014
capital program if the necessary approvals can be obtained.
NEW CONCESSIONS EGPC BID ROUND
The Company previously announced that the four new concessions
awarded in the 2012 EGPC bid round were approved and signed
November 7, 2013. With the addition of the four new 100%
concessions, the Company's concessions in Egypt have doubled to a
total of eight (7 operated) and the exploration acreage has
increased by approximately 800,000 net acres. The Company has
committed $101.1 million of expenditures on the new blocks over the
next three years which is comprised of $40.6 million in signature
bonus and $60.5 million of work commitments during the first three
year exploration phase. The $40.6 million signature bonus has been
offset against outstanding receivables owed to the Company by EGPC.
The Company, through the use of its Borrowing Base Facilities, has
provided letters of guarantee in the amount of $60.6 million for
the first phase work commitments.
The Company has designed an aggressive seismic program to
acquire over 1,800 square kilometers of 3-D seismic and 300
kilometers of 2-D seismic on the new concessions which will be
initiated as soon as practical in 2014 and completed in 2015. The
Company is targeting the 2nd quarter of 2014 to begin seismic
acquisition, which will start on the Eastern Desert
concessions.
North West Gharib, Arab Republic of Egypt (100% working
interest, operated)
The Company plans to drill up to 17 wells and acquire 3D seismic
in 2014 with additional wells and 3D seismic planned for 2015.
The Company is planning to commence drilling in the second
quarter, subject to receiving well approvals. A second drilling rig
is scheduled to move from the West Gharib concession and commence
drilling in North West Gharib in the third quarter.
The Company has identified more than 79 drilling locations based
on existing well data and existing seismic data on the 655 square
kilometer (162,000 acre) concession which surrounds and immediately
offsets the Company's core West Gharib/West Bakr producing
concessions (~45,000 acres). The Company intends to identify
additional exploration targets by acquiring 3D seismic data on
portions of the Concessions which are not covered with modern 3D
seismic.
South West Gharib, Arab Republic of Egypt (100% working
interest, operated)
The 195 square kilometer (48,000 acre) South West Gharib
concession is located immediately south of the North West Gharib
concession. The Company plans to acquire 3D seismic over the entire
concession during 2014 with exploration drilling planned for
2015.
South East Gharib, Arab Republic of Egypt (100% working
interest, operated)
The 508 square kilometer (125,000 acre) South East Gharib
concession is located immediately south of the South West Gharib
concession. The Company plans to initially acquire 2D and 3D
seismic during 2014 with exploration drilling planned for 2015.
South Ghazalat, Arab Republic of Egypt (100% working interest,
operated)
The 1,883 square kilometer (465,000 acre) South Ghazalat
concession is located in the Western Desert to the west of the
company's East Ghazalat concession in the prolific Abu Gharadig
basin. The Company is planning to acquire 840 square kilometers of
3D seismic over this concession prior to drilling exploration wells
in the first exploration phase. The acquisition program will likely
become a 2015 project depending on crew availability and potential
starting dates. If the project can start in 2014 the Company has
the financial capacity to undertake that activity in 2014.
REPUBLIC OF YEMEN
Block 32, Republic of Yemen (13.81% working interest)
Operations and Exploration
No wells were drilled subsequent to the quarter.
The Company has approved a plan to participate in three wells
(0.4 net wells to TransGlobe) in 2014.
Production
Field production averaged approximately 2,194 Bopd (303 Bopd to
TransGlobe) in October and 2,130 Bopd (294 Bopd to TransGlobe) in
November.
Block S-1, Republic of Yemen (25% working interest)
Operations and Exploration
No wells have been drilled to date in the fourth quarter.
The Company has not planned any new drilling in 2014.
Production
On November 8, 2013 production from Block S-1 recommenced after
being shut-in for the past 12 months. Field production averaged
approximately 3,836 Bopd (959 Bopd to TransGlobe) in November.
Current production is approximately 4,800 Bopd (1,200 Bopd to
TransGlobe). It is expected that the full field will be brought on
stream over the next several months as and when service equipment
is available to start wells which require assistance to start
flowing.
The reported gross sales production rate represents the amount
of oil that is lifted and sold during a quarter. It is expected the
production from Block S-1 will be booked as inventory during the
fourth quarter and sold in 2014. Sales production rates and the
field production rates will vary quarter to quarter depending on
the timing of tanker liftings during the respective quarter.
Block 72, Republic of Yemen (20% working interest)
Operations and Exploration
The joint interest partners approved the Gabdain 3 exploration
well in 2013, subject to the resolution of logistic/security issues
in the area. The operator has requested an extension to the current
exploration phase of the PSA and is targeting 2014 to commence
drilling activities on Gabdain 3.
The Gabdain 3 well is currently not included in the 2014 plan,
but could be added if the operator is able to proceed with the
project in 2014.
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
The Company has collected $253.4 million from EGPC to date in
2013, which includes collections of $110.7 million to date during
the fourth quarter which consisted of a full cargo lifting, offsets
including the signature bonuses and cash payments. The Company is
in discussion with Egyptian authorities in regards to further
collections in the fourth quarter. At this time the Company
anticipates total collections for the year will be at least $270
million which if achieved will be a 72% increase over 2012
collections.
TransGlobe Energy Corporation is a Calgary-based,
growth-oriented oil and gas exploration and development company
focused on the Middle East/North Africa region with production
operations in the Arab Republic of Egypt and the Republic of Yemen.
TransGlobe's common shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange
under the symbol TGL and on the NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol
TGA. TransGlobe's Convertible Debentures trade on the Toronto Stock
Exchange under the symbol TGL.DB.
Cautionary Statement to Investors:
This news release may include certain statements that may be
deemed to be "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the
U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such
statements relate to possible future events. All statements other
than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking
statements. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always
identified by the use of words such as "seek", "anticipate",
"plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project",
"predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might",
"should", "believe" and similar expressions. These statements
involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors
that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from
those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. Although
TransGlobe's forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs,
expectations, opinions and assumptions of the Company's management
on the date the statements are made, such statements are inherently
uncertain and provide no guarantee of future performance. Actual
results may differ materially from TransGlobe's expectations as
reflected in such forward-looking statements as a result of various
factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Company. These
factors include, but are not limited to, unforeseen changes in the
rate of production from TransGlobe's oil and gas properties,
changes in price of crude oil and natural gas, adverse technical
factors associated with exploration, development, production or
transportation of TransGlobe's crude oil and natural gas reserves,
changes or disruptions in the political or fiscal regimes in
TransGlobe's areas of activity, changes in tax, energy or other
laws or regulations, changes in significant capital expenditures,
delays or disruptions in production due to shortages of skilled
manpower, equipment or materials, economic fluctuations, and other
factors beyond the Company's control. TransGlobe does not assume
any obligation to update forward-looking statements if
circumstances or management's beliefs, expectations or opinions
should change, other than as required by law, and investors should
not attribute undue certainty to, or place undue reliance on, any
forward-looking statements. Please consult TransGlobe's public
filings at www.sedar.com and www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml for further,
more detailed information concerning these matters.
TransGlobe Energy CorporationScott KoyichInvestor
Relations403.264.9888investor.relations@trans-globe.comwww.trans-globe.com
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