Nordic Telecoms Seen Holding Up Despite Debt Concerns
August 10 2011 - 4:55AM
Dow Jones News
Despite widespread concern about stalling global growth,
analysts remain relatively optimistic about the prospects for the
Nordic telecommunications sector.
Nordic stocks have been among the worst hit by the escalating
worry over the U.S. credit downgrade and the eurozone debt
situation. Market observers are warning that escalating uncertainty
will subdue global growth, leading to analysts slashing company
earnings estimates, in particular for cyclical industrial firms
that are highly dependent on global demand.
But while there is an established correlation between economic
output and financial results of industrial companies, Nordic
telecom operators and wireless netgear vendors like Sweden's
Telefon AB L.M. Ericsson (ERIC), won't see an immediate impact from
a weaker global economy, said Martin Nilsson, Nordic telecom and IT
analyst at Handelsbanken.
"Of course, in the long run all companies are hit by a
recession, especially if financing would dry up again. But for the
telecommunications business the relationship between results and
the broader economy is more implicit," Nilsson said.
Alandsbanken analyst Lars Soderfjell said he sees "no reason to
make any major adjustments of estimates, with regards to the market
uncertainty," adding that Nordic telecommunications companies have
been actively building up strong balance sheets and securing
refinancing needs by extending debt maturities following the
financial downturn of 2008, so the sector is better equipped to
handle financing constraints. Sweden's TeliaSonera AB (TLSN.SK) is
one company which has actively evened out its debt maturity
schedule to stabilise its financing needs since Chief Financial
Officer Per-Arne Blomquist joined the company in 2008.
"Even though we have seen interbank rate spreads moving upwards
in recent time, they haven't reached alarming levels," Soderfjell
noted.
But he said Nordic telecommunications and netgear stocks are not
immune from further losses. The Nordic index for telecommunications
services has fallen 14% in the last three months, while the index
for technology hardware and equipment is down 31% against a 23%
drop in the OMX Nordic 40 Index.
"The overall risk premium for equities has increased and that
hits all shares on the stock market," Soderfjell said.
He added that if the current bearish market environment
prevails, investors will become increasingly focused on dividend
yield rather than stock performance.
"One would assume that the risk for dividend cuts is higher in
cyclical sectors such as engineering, forestry and base metals, at
least compared to operators and utilities."
-By Sven Grundberg, Dow Jones Newswires; +46-8-5451-3098;
sven.grundberg@dowjones.com