By Gustav Sandstrom
TODAY'S CALENDAR - All times GMT
Nordic Macro
0800 Norges Bank FX purchases
0800 Norway May unemployment
1420 Swedish bond terms
Other Macro
0900 Eurozone June unemployment
0900 Eurozone July flash
estimate CPI
1215 US July ADP employment
report
1230 US 2Q advance estimate GDP
1345 US July ISM Chicago PMI
1800 US Fed interest rate
announcement
Nordic Equities
0600 Outotec 2Q
n/a Pohjola Bank 2Q
Other Equities
n/a Anheuser-Busch InBev 2Q
n/a Alcatel-Lucent 2Q
n/a BNP Paribas 2Q
n/a Volkswagen 2Q
IN FOCUS:
Nordic investors will look forward Wednesday to a busy agenda
with both macroeconomic news and earnings reports locally and
abroad.
A highlight in early trading will be euro-zone inflation data
for July, SEB Private Banking equity strategist Mattias Gredmark
said.
Inflation in the region is quite likely to decline, and this
could give some scope for the European Central Bank to potentially
cut policy rates, Mr. Gredmark said. The fact that the ECB's next
interest rate announcement is due Thursday makes Wednesday's
reading all the more interesting, he added.
After lunch time, the U.S. ADP employment report will be closely
eyed ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls data, as always a
highlight of the week.
Recent job figures from the U.S. have been pretty solid, and the
ADP report is likely to confirm the firm trend, Mr. Gredmark
said.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve will give its interest rate
announcement after Nordic stock markets close Wednesday.
In terms of earnings reports, local investors will look forward
to second-quarter figures from Finnish industrial company Outotec
Oyj (OTE1V.HE) and lender Pohjola Bank Oyj (POH1S.HE).
Swedish-Canadian mining group Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN.T) will
probably be in focus in early trading on the Stockholm exchange,
Mr. Gredmark said. The company overnight reported net earnings of
$16.6 million, or $0.03 a share, for the quarter ended June 30.
FOREX:
EUR/NOK
Latest 0350 GMT 7.8632-746
Previous 2150 GMT 7.8708-77
%Chg -0.07
EUR/SEK
Latest 0350 GMT 8.6867-910
Previous 2150 GMT 8.6907-93
%Chg -0.07
USD/NOK
Latest 0350 GMT 5.9328-412
Previous 2150 GMT 5.9349-92
%Chg 0.00
USD/SEK
Latest 0350 GMT 6.5541-72
Previous 2150 GMT 6.5532-88
%Chg -0.01
NORDIC CURRENCIES:
The SEK weakened against the EUR and the USD Tuesday after data
showed Swedish GDP growth missed expectations. Ole Andre Kjennerud,
macro economist at DNB, said while the figure came in lower than
expected, the Swedish GDP flash estimate has in the past been
significantly revised once more data has become available, so he
expects the Riksbank to stay on hold for the time being.
Wednesday looks to be another busy day this week; locally
investors will be eyeing Norwegian unemployment data, with the
consensus forecast for an unchanged rate of 3.5%. DNB holds a
slightly more pessimistic view, expecting the unemployment rate to
rise to 3.6%. Mr. Kjennerud said if the number comes in high, it
could cause the NOK to weaken. DNB expects Norges Bank to cut its
rate in September by 25 basis points to 1.25%.
More employment data is due Wednesday, both in Europe and the
U.S. Regarding euro-zone figures, Mr. Kjennerud noted the general
view is that employment is, and will remain, weak, so the numbers
are unlikely to change the ECB's rate policy and the ECB has
already signaled it wants to keep rates down.
On the other side of the Atlantic, ADP employment data are due
for release and will help guide investors ahead of the non-farm
payrolls report Friday, Mr. Kjennerud said.
Other important data to look out for Wednesday include U.S. GDP
data and the Chicago ISM index, followed by the FOMC statement at
the conclusion of its two-day meeting, after the Nordic market
close. Nordea said it expects the Fed to "incorporate details on
its asset purchase intentions into the statement, including its
plan to taper," and noted that the market will look for hints
"regarding the timing of tapering."
STOCK INDEXES:
OMXN40 1,159.28 -1.62 -0.1%
OMXS30 1,236.86 +9.88 +0.8%
OBX 454.91 -1.04 -0.2%
OMXC20 547.16 +2.07 +0.4%
OMXH25 2,333.44 +4.96 +0.2%
Brent $106.83 -$0.08 -0.1%
NORDIC MARKETS:
Nordic stocks moved roughly sideways Tuesday, continuing the
consolidating trend of the past few sessions.
Trading on the Nordic exchanges is rather thin at the moment,
but the underlying trend still seems quite optimistic, thanks to
the decent set of recent second-quarter earnings reports, SEB
Private Banking's Gredmark said.
Nordic stocks currently look technically overbought, and that
gives some downside risks in the near term, he said. Still, the
broader trend remains fairly positive, Mr. Gredmark added.
ENERGY:
Crude prices are trading in a tight range in Asia Wednesday.
"The Fed continues to hold investors' attention," Kelly Teoh,
market strategist at IG Markets Singapore said in a note.
Over the longer term, however, Ms. Teoh said oil prices are
expected to trend lower after oil slipped below support at $104 as
slower global growth dents demand.
"The underlying support for energy prices has been from
geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, renewed optimism on
global demand and low inventories," she said. "These factors look
short lived and waning."
September Nymex crude is at $103.36 a barrel, up 28 cents, while
September Brent crude is at $106.83/bbl, down 8 cents.
NEWS ROUNDUP:
SWEDEN: Sweden's gross domestic product growth was weaker than
analysts had expected in the second quarter, as declining exports
weighed on the economy, official data showed Tuesday.
SWEDEN: Oil and gas company Lundin Petroleum AB (LUPE.SK)
Tuesday said that its Lundin Sareba BV unit has made a production
sharing contract amendment with SKKMigas to substitute existing
Sareba Block acreage with new acreage, named Cendrawasih VII, or
CVII, offshore north east Indonesia.
DENMARK: Jewellery company Pandora A/S (PNDORA.KO) Tuesday
raised its full-year earnings guidance, citing continued strong
sales of newly launched products across all regions.
DENMARK: Transport company DSV A/S (DSV.KO) Tuesday posted a
slight drop in second-quarter net profit, as lower margins weighed,
and said it is launching a new share buyback program.
FINLAND: Pharmaceutical company Orion Oyj (ORNBV.HE) Tuesday
said its second-quarter net profit dipped compared to last year as
generic competition for its Parkinson's drug intensified, but said
its full-year guidance remains intact.
NORWAY: Norway's government received 26.8% less revenue from its
oil and gas fields in the second quarter of this year compared with
a year ago, mainly due to lower energy prices, the company that
manages the resources said Tuesday.
Write to Gustav Sandstrom at gustav.sandstrom@dowjones.com
(Johannes Ledel in Stockholm contributed to this report.)
