Mixed economic news and media coverage of continued weakness in labor and housing markets contribute to decline NEW YORK, Sept. 30 /PRNewswire/ -- The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) fell for the first time in seven months, declining to 34.1 in September as media coverage of a higher unemployment rate, continued weakness in the housing market and generally mixed economic news outpaced that of limited positive economic news for the month. The ESI was 35.5 in August, its highest level in a year. "While the ESI's drop could be an early indication of the double dip some economists have been warning about, any sentiment data can be expected to show some random volatility," said Dow Jones Newswires 'Money Talks' columnist Alen Mattich. "However, the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator has previously proved much less volatile than other sentiment indicators. The fall in September still leaves it above the level for July." The two leading consumer-based economic indicators have been particularly volatile in the past several months. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index unexpectedly soared to 73.5 in September after two months of unanticipated declines. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index was expected to rise in September, but instead fell to 53.1. Over the past year, the two consumer indicators have also been at odds as often as they agreed, moving in unison up or down only six times. The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator aims to predict the health of the U.S. economy by analyzing the coverage of 15 major daily newspapers in the U.S. In addition to continued job loss and a weak housing market, the anniversary of Lehman Brothers' collapse generated significant news, but analysis shows it did not skew the overall tenor of newspaper coverage and thus did not play a significant role in the ESI's dip. Two other news events received extensive, but short-lived newspaper coverage. Negative news coverage of the end of the "cash for clunkers" program focused on the sharp decline in auto sales in September while the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh generated coverage that was more positive than average for the month. However, neither story generated enough coverage to significantly affect the ESI. The ESI represents one of the most comprehensive and far-reaching examinations of media coverage as an economic indicator. The ESI's back-testing to 1990 shows that the ESI clearly highlighted the risk that the U.S. economy was sliding into recession in 2001 and 2008 and suggests the indicator can help predict economic turning points as much as seven months in advance of other indicators. Unlike some other indicators where 50 is a clear break-point between recession and recovery, the ESI needs to be read with reference to longer trends. Based on the ESI's performance since 1990, previous recoveries have been marked by substantial month-to-month gains, with a jump of three points seeming to be a sign of significant improvement. A drop below 50 marks the point at which there is a clear risk of a slowdown. The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator is calculated using a proprietary algorithm through Dow Jones Insight, a media tracking and analysis tool. More information about the Economic Sentiment Indicator and its development is available at http://solutions.dowjones.com/esi . Dow Jones Insight uses innovative text mining and analytic technologies to help organizations keep informed about relevant issues, news, conversations and trends emerging in mainstream, Web and social media. Dow Jones Insight's global content collection includes more than 25,000 news and information sources as well as blogs, message boards, and posts from YouTube and Twitter. About Dow Jones Dow Jones & Company is a News Corporation company. (Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA; ASX: NWS, NWSLV; http://www.newscorp.com/) Dow Jones is a leading provider of global business news and information services. Its Consumer Media Group publishes The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, MarketWatch and the Far Eastern Economic Review. Its Enterprise Media Group includes; Dow Jones Business & Relationship Intelligence, Dow Jones Newswires, Dow Jones Factiva, Dow Jones Client Solutions, Dow Jones Indexes and Dow Jones Financial Information Services. Its Local Media Group operates community-based information franchises. Dow Jones owns 50 percent of SmartMoney and 33 percent of STOXX Ltd. and provides news content to radio stations in the U.S. The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator is provided for analysis purposes only and Dow Jones makes no representation that the indicator is a definitive predictor of sentiment or the health of the U.S. economy. This report does not in any way reflect an opinion of Dow Jones regarding the U.S. economy or the suitability of any investments. DATASOURCE: Dow Jones & Company CONTACT: Rob Thibault of Dow Jones & Company, +1-609-627-2680, or Mobile, +1-609-216-4780, Web Site: http://solutions.dowjones.com/esi

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