Rising Rates and Soaring Stocks: Time for Convertible Bond ETFs - ETF News And Commentary
December 18 2013 - 7:04AM
Zacks
The market has seen a sudden surge in convertible bond investing
owing to the growing concerns of rising rates that hit the
conventional debt markets. Meanwhile, stock markets set new highs
last month and with decent economic fundamentals, this type of bond
is back in the limelight.
This is especially true thanks to solid economic data such as a
revised U.S. GDP figure of 3.6% for Q3 against 2.8% predicted
earlier, a reduction in jobless claims and a continued surge in
manufacturing numbers renewed the taper concern. This has pushed up
interest rates leading to the widest spread between the 2-year and
10-year bond yield since July 2011 (read: 3 Sector ETFs to Profit
from Rising Rates).
What Should the Bet Be Now?
Amid such a backdrop, it is necessary to look for some ETFs which
are less-vulnerable to rate rises but offer decent level yields. At
the same time, investors can take advantage of soaring equity
markets. But finding a better option other than convertible bond
ETFs that can serve all these factors in one product is a tall
order.
The convertible bond is a ‘hybrid ‘product of both debt and equity.
These are those products that can be exchanged if the holder
chooses to, for a specific number of preferred or common
shares if the company’s share price climbs past a said conversion
price during the bond’s tenure. If it falls, some yield will still
pass on to the investors’ though probably not as much as with a
traditional bond.
As such, these are attractive for investors seeking to tap the
potential upside in equities while enjoying a steady flow of income
and reduced downside risk (read: Convertible Bond ETFs for Income
With Growth Potential).
The price of these bonds generally moves in-line with the
underlying shares. However, unlike shares, the convertible bonds
have some coverage against downside risks as investors can redeem
these at par on maturity if the issuer is in business. And in case
of bankruptcy, convertible bond holders get paid out ahead of
equity holders.
Flurry of Convertibles in 2013
To make the most of the situation, a deluge of issues from the
likes of
Yahoo (YHOO), Tesla Motors (TSLA),
NetSuite (N) and
Salesforce.com (CRM) has hit the
market in 2013. The sales of converts more than doubled to $38.3
billion this year from $18.7 billion last year.
The largest was Yahoo’s issuance of $1.25 billion of convertible
senior notes due 2018 in November. The deal had a conversion
premium of about 45–50%. Low-yielding products are especially in
demand due to rising rate concerns amid a prospective taper (read:
Time for the Convertible Bond ETF?).
ETF Impact
Choices are very few in this corner of the ETF world. There is only
one pure-play in the convertible bonds section –
SPDR Barclays Capital Convertible
Securities ETF (CWB). Quite expectedly, the current macro
backdrop has led to some great trading in CWB in the recent
past.
Over the last six-month period, CWB has outpaced one of its big
traditional bond counterparts
PIMCO Total Return
ETF (BOND) by a wide margin and though it did not
exactly catch up, was close to the return offered by the broad
equity ETF
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY). This suggests
that the ETF could be an interesting pick for investors seeking
exposure to the fixed income market, while still experiencing a bit
of the equity rally.
This Barclays fund has so far generated $1.9 billion in assets and
is exposed to 97 securities with average maturity of 12.88 years.
The fund charges 40 basis points in expense per year and has a
dividend yield of 3.47% currently. Around 35% of the holdings are
rated Baa or higher thus implying lower default risks.
However, the fund hasn’t exactly done great in this QE Taper
environment. It is flat over the past six months, which compares
very unfavorably to its convertible bond counterpart, and the broad
stock market as a whole as well.
Conclusion
‘QE Taper’ and ‘rising interest rates’ have become synonymous in
the market. We would like to notify investors that even if the Fed
starts tapering, income seeking investors may weather the fall in
bond prices with rising stock prices through this instrument.
And with the broader economy finally finding its footing, stock
markets are expected to hold steady next year, potentially making
CWB a solid pick for investors seeking a good combo of fixed income
and equity in their portfolios.
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PIMCO-TOT RETRN (BOND): ETF Research Reports
SPDR-BC CONV SC (CWB): ETF Research Reports
SPDR-SP 500 TR (SPY): ETF Research Reports
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