Crypto Markets Are Misreading Trump’s Strategic Reserve, Says Bitwise CIO
March 05 2025 - 5:00AM
NEWSBTC
The crypto markets have whipsawed following President Donald
Trump’s unexpected announcement of a strategic crypto reserve over
the weekend. Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer
(CIO), Matt Hougan, contends that traders are overreacting to the
proposed plan’s details and missing what could be a bullish
development for digital assets. Late Sunday, President Trump
revealed a United States government initiative to acquire and hold
five different cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and
Cardano—in a strategic reserve. Initially, the market response was
emphatically positive: Bitcoin’s price surged from around $85,000
to $95,000. However, as Hougan notes in his latest investor memo,
that initial optimism was short-lived. By Monday, the major crypto
assets named in the announcement had surrendered their gains.
Everyone Is Misjudging Trump’s Crypto Reserve Bitwise released its
memo on March 4, titled “The Market Has This Wrong: Thoughts on
Trump’s Strategic Crypto Reserve.” In it, Hougan points to overly
narrow market interpretations as the principal cause behind the
abrupt retracement. “The market is overthinking things. For all the
flaws in the rollout, the reserve news is bullish.” Related
Reading: Why Is The Crypto Market Down Today? He elaborates on why
the proposal is not being greeted with lasting enthusiasm. A large
part of the skepticism centers on the White House’s choice of five
cryptocurrencies, which critics describe as an overly broad
selection. In Hougan’s words: “The inclusion of speculative assets
like Cardano feels more calculating than strategic.” Although the
plan initially seemed like a vote of confidence from Washington,
some crypto commentators—such as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and
Castle Island Ventures Founder Nic Carter—have questioned the
rationale behind broadening the reserve beyond Bitcoin. Bitwise CEO
Hunter Horsley also weighed in shortly after the announcement,
publicly expressing a preference for a more conservative,
bitcoin-centric reserve. Despite this, Hougan’s memo argues that
market participants may be failing to see the bigger picture. In
the memo, Hougan outlines three major takeaways regarding the
strategic reserve plan. Hougan suggests that President Trump’s
first public draft often differs considerably from what eventually
becomes policy. The reserve, he argues, might ultimately shift to a
“bitcoin-only” approach or evolve to a more balanced composition
following industry input. “Over the coming days, big names from the
crypto industry will make their feelings felt about the reserve
idea.” According to Hougan, the announcement further cements the
perception of Bitcoin as a strategically important asset. He
believes this could spur competing nations to follow suit,
mirroring smaller-scale adoption already seen in El Salvador,
Bhutan, and Abu Dhabi. “If you are Honduras, Mexico, or Guatemala,
and you’re watching El Salvador and now the US acquire bitcoin, can
you really afford to be at zero?” Related Reading: Crypto Market
Shaken: Tariff War Hits ETH, XRP, And SOL Hard Hougan also points
to the political calculus, suggesting that even a future
administration with different views might not divest the reserve
once it exists. He notes that the US has historically held onto
strategic assets, such as gold, for extended periods. “We learned
this in the last election, where the GOP’s courtship of crypto
gained it many votes while Democratic hostility gained few. I
suspect that any crypto that is purchased will be held for a very
long time.” Despite the optimism, Hougan acknowledges the prospect
that the pushback could become so intense that the reserve is
either scaled down or scrapped. Critics say that including
less-established assets alongside Bitcoin only muddies the waters
and may undermine the legitimacy of the initiative. Hougan,
however, believes that “the final reserve will be nearly entirely
bitcoin, and it will be larger than people think.” He also
underscores a broader point: The simple acknowledgment by the US
government that crypto assets can be deemed “strategic” has
potentially game-changing significance. In his view, such a
designation could catalyze global adoption, spurring other
countries to purchase crypto or ramp up holdings already in place.
According to Hougan, Sunday’s announcement should be interpreted as
bullish for digital assets—despite the complicated rollout and the
resulting price swings. He warns that markets might be letting
short-term controversies overshadow the bigger picture: “The US
government declaring crypto assets ‘strategic’ is bullish. I think
the market will eventually realize that.” As the White House
prepares for a scheduled Crypto Summit this Friday—hosted by crypto
czar David Sacks—industry voices will likely press for a more
measured and possibly narrower reserve structure. Whether the final
policy ultimately narrows to a bitcoin-focused plan or persists
with multiple coins, Hougan believes it may still mark a meaningful
step forward in the mainstream legitimization of crypto. The
initial reaction may have been mixed, but, as he succinctly puts
it, “after the dust settles, I suspect the final reserve will look
pretty good.” At press time, BTC traded at $87,565. Featured image
from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
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