Housing costs remain stubbornly high, deterring
some buyers–but Redfin economists say costs could come down
soon
(NASDAQ: RDFN) —New listings of U.S. homes for sale rose 8.4%
from a year earlier during the four weeks ending March 31, the
smallest increase in about seven weeks, according to a new report
from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate
brokerage.
What sellers are doing: Year-over-year growth in new
listings slowed because some sellers took a break over Easter,
which fell over a week earlier in 2024 than in 2023. The slowdown
is likely an Easter blip, but Redfin will be keeping a close eye on
selling data over the next few weeks to confirm it’s not the start
of a larger trend.
What buyers are doing: Homebuying demand was relatively
soft this week, too. Home tours were up 15% from the start of the
year, compared to a 21% increase at this time last year, and
mortgage-purchase applications were flat this week. Pending home
sales fell 2.8% from a year ago, and they posted an unseasonal
decline during the last week of March. Some would-be buyers took a
break from touring offers and making offers over Easter, and others
are shying away due to high housing costs.
And what about prices? The median U.S. home-sale price
was $376,223, up 4.7% from a year earlier. Median monthly housing
payments were just $13 shy of the all-time high hit last October,
when home prices were lower but mortgage rates were nearing 8%,
versus just under 7% this week.
“Buyers may get a break on housing costs in the coming months,”
said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Daily average
mortgage rates rose this week because of some disappointing
economic news. But if the upcoming job and inflation reports show
that the economy is heading in the right direction, the Fed is
likely to confirm they will cut interest rates in June, which would
lower mortgage rates. Home-price growth could soften as spring goes
on if new listings regain the momentum we saw before Easter.”
For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market,
including how current financial events are impacting mortgage
rates, please visit our “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
7.07% (April 3)
Up from 6.91% a week earlier
Up from 6.44%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.79% (week ending March 28)
Down from 6.87% a week earlier
Up from 6.32%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Essentially unchanged from a week earlier
(as of week ending April 3)
Down 13%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index
(seasonally adjusted)
Essentially unchanged from a month earlier
(as of week ending March 31)
Down 11%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure
of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin
agents
Touring activity
Up 15% from the start of the year (as of
April 2)
At this time last year, it was up 21% from
the start of 2023 (last year’s increase was bigger partly because
Easter fell on March 31 this year, and a week later in 2024)
ShowingTime, a home touring technology
company
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Down 4% from a month earlier (as of April
1)
Down 13%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending
March 31, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending March 31,
2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$376,223
4.7%
Median asking price
$404,925
4.9%
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,700 at a 6.79% mortgage
rate
9.3%
$13 shy of record high hit in October
2023
Pending sales
85,217
-2.8%
New listings
88,631
8.4%
Active listings
812,460
6.9%
Months of supply
3.3 months
+0.4 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is considered
balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions
Share of homes off market in two
weeks
43%
Essentially unchanged
Median days on market
39
-1 day
Share of homes sold above list
price
27.6%
Up from 27%
Share of homes with a price
drop
5.6%
+1.2 pts.
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
99%
+0.3 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending March 31, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year
increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year
decreases
Notes
Median sale price
West Palm Beach, FL (19.1%)
Anaheim, CA (18%)
San Jose, CA (15.9%)
Providence, RI (14.3%)
Miami (14%)
San Antonio, TX (-0.3%)
Declined in just 1 metro
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (30.5%)
San Francisco (24.9%)
Anaheim, CA (8.8%)
Seattle (6.8%)
Milwaukee (5.2%)
Atlanta (-15.9%)
West Palm Beach, FL (-14.8%)
Houston (-13.3%)
San Antonio, TX (-12.5%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (-10.5%)
Increased in 16 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (41.3%)
Phoenix (30.2%)
Sacramento, CA (25.4%)
Jacksonville, FL (23.6%)
Austin, TX (21.1%)
Atlanta (-9.6%)
Newark, NJ (-8.9%)
Boston (-8.3%)
Chicago (-8%)
Milwaukee, WI (-6%)
Declined in 13 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-listings-sales-stumble-easter-effect
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240404300731/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880
press@redfin.com
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