Ad Market Shows Encouraging Signs, But Doubts Remain
September 23 2009 - 4:08PM
Dow Jones News
Media executives have been making the case recently that ad
markets are starting to recover, and now some evidence has emerged
to support it.
In recent days, large advertisers have unveiled new marketing
campaigns and reported increased spending on advertising. Such news
is pleasing to media companies as ad spending dropped sharply last
year amid the global financial crisis only to muddle along in its
aftermath as consumers reined in their spending habits and U.S.
automakers General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC descended
into bankruptcy.
However, it remains unclear if the positive signs are
sustainable or if they can bring an end the recent string of
advertising declines. Jon Swallen, senior vice president of
research with ad tracking firm TNS Media, said July and August
showed some moderation of the pace of decline for ad spending, but
that was largely due to easing comparisons.
"Even if the minus signs are getting smaller, continued minus
signs are a bad sign, because we're coming up against the really
sharp declines that occurred last year," Swallen said. "There are
no real signs of improvement yet in my data."
According to TNS, advertising declines have held steady at
between 13% and 15% through the first half of the year.
Nonetheless, at a media conference last week hosted by Goldman
Sachs, a parade of media executives made their most optimistic
comments this year about advertising.
News Corp. (NWS, NWSA) Chief Executive Rupert Murdoch told
analysts that ad markets remain below 2007 levels but are "much
better than they were four months ago," adding that results are
"getting better every month and getting better every week." CBS
Corp. (CBS) Chief Executive Les Moonves echoed those sentiments,
noting that the company has sold 70% of its ad inventory for
February's Super Bowl XLIV.
And recent anecdotal evidence supports their comments.
For example, General Mills Inc. (GIS) - a force in advertising
markets - reported Wednesday that it ratcheted up its media and
advertising spending by 16% in its fiscal first quarter ended Aug.
30. That news came after the company's counterpart, ConAgra Foods
Inc. (CAG), said it would spend "slightly more" on advertising and
promotions.
Elsewhere, the world's largest automaker, Toyota Motor Corp.
(TM), said last week that it is planning a $1 billion marketing
campaign aimed at reviving its U.S. sales. General Motors,
meanwhile, has launched an ad campaign of its own titled "May The
Best Car Win," aimed at reversing perceptions that its product
quality lags its competitors.
The news could ease concerns about the bet made by most major TV
networks over the summer to hang onto a larger portion of ad
inventory for the new programming season in hopes that a resurgent
economy would lead to more pricing power.
Ad buyers, though, remain hesitant.
"All I see are signs that things aren't getting any worse," said
Gary Carr, director of national broadcast at media agency
TargetCast tcm. "Maybe things are getting a little better, but
nothing is going to really change until we see jobs being created
and consumers are able to start spending money again. I'm not
seeing any rush back into the market now."
Gould said that while he expects earnings for media companies to
rise each year, many of his 2011 estimates remain below 2008
results. He expects media conglomerates with a concentration of
cable networks, like Time Warner Inc. (TWX), Viacom Inc. (VIA) and
Discovery Communications Inc. (DISCA), to surpass their 2008
earnings in 2011, while those with more broadcasting properties,
like Walt Disney Co. (DIS) and CBS will lag.
Gould expects News Corp., which owns this newswire and The Wall
Street Journal, to barely beat its 2008 results in 2011.
Plus, when the advertising market does rebound, the spending is
unlikely to match past patterns because advertisers are
experimenting with new media alternatives.
"The old days of carpet bombing the U.S. with network TV ads and
expecting to reach everybody are over," said John McDonald, a
spokesman for GM. "We continue to shift our marketing and ad
resources to where people are and that means it's coming out of
major broadcast TV and radio spots and into more online, social
media areas where consumers are willing to spend time and interact
with brands."
-By Nat Worden, Dow Jones Newswires; (212) 416-2472;
nat.worden@dowjones.com