RE/MAX Canada
expects national average home price to rise by five per cent next
year
- One-third of Canadians (36 per cent) are optimistic that
conditions in the Canadian housing market will improve in 2025
- It's anticipated that the 2025 housing market will favour
sellers in 44 per cent of regions surveyed, while 33 per cent of
the regions are likely to balance out, and 17 per cent will favour
buyers
TORONTO, Nov. 26,
2024 /CNW/ -- Canadians are looking ahead to 2025
with a positive outlook on the housing market, prompted by a series
of interest rate cuts in the latter part of 2024. RE/MAX
Canada and its network of brokers
and agents are expecting a more active market next year, with the
national average residential price likely to increase by five per
cent, and sales anticipated to rise in 33/37 regions surveyed, with
increases up to 25 per cent.
Download the 2025 Housing Market Outlook Report Data
Table
This renewed confidence in the market is notably being felt by
first-time homebuyers (seven per cent) according to a Leger
surveyed commissioned by RE/MAX Canada as part of the 2025 Housing Market
Outlook Report. RE/MAX brokers and agents in 81 per cent of regions
surveyed noted that first-time homebuyers were the key demographic
anticipated to drive market activity in 2025.
"While affordability challenges persist, the sequential interest
rate cuts and changes to the mortgage stress test are a much-needed
reprieve for those looking to get into the market," says
Christopher Alexander, President of
RE/MAX Canada. "The current
environment is more encouraging than it has been in the past few
years, especially for first-time homebuyers. However, a boost in
sales, coupled with limited inventory, almost always leads to
rising prices, which is the trend we're expecting to see
materialize in virtually all Canadian housing markets."
Canadian Consumer Insights
According to the Leger survey, three quarters of Canadians (73
per cent) believe home ownership is the best investment they can
make. This sentiment is unchanged year-over-year. Sixty per
cent of Canadians currently own a home. Meanwhile, nearly half of
Canadians (49 per cent) are confident that home ownership is
attainable; and 40 per cent are increasingly becoming more open to
settling down in new neighbourhoods to mitigate and manage some of
the hurdles surrounding affordability.
The survey outlined some key home-buying trends heading into
2025, including: 47 per cent of Canadians (up by 14 per cent from
2024) prioritize residential properties and areas that are less
likely to be impacted by climate change. Results also highlight
that more than half of Canadians (62 per cent; up five per cent
when comparing results from 2024) are more confident that working
with a professional realtor broker or agent will bring value to the
overall buying or selling process. When looking for information
about new neighbourhoods to move to, 36 per cent turn to a real
estate agent, while 42 per cent rely on online search engines and
45 per cent ask friends and family.
Regional Market Insights
RE/MAX brokers and agents nationwide, were asked to share a
year-over-year analysis of their local market between January 1 and October 31 and share their
estimated outlook for 2025. Ahead of 2025, it's anticipated that 44
per cent regions will shift to a sellers' market (Victoria, BC, Greater Vancouver Area, BC, Edmonton, AB, Regina, SK, Sudbury,
ON, North Bay, ON, Simcoe
County, ON, York Region, ON, Windsor,
ON, Thunder Bay, ON,
Kenora, On, Fredericton, NB, Saint John, NB, Halifax, NS, Truro & Colchester, NS, and
St. John's Metro, N.L), while 33
per cent regions will shift to balance out (Vancouver Island, BC,
Kelowna/Central Okanagan, BC,
Winnipeg, MB, Kitchener-Waterloo, ON, Mississauga, ON, Brampton, ON, Durham, ON, Toronto,
ON, Ottawa, ON,
Sault Ste. Marie, ON, Kingston, ON, and Prince Edward Island), 17 per cent will shift
to a buyers' market (Hamilton, ON,
Burlington, ON, Peterborough, ON, Kawartha Lakes, ON, Muskoka,
ON, and Haliburton, ON), while six
per cent will experience mixed market conditions (Calgary, AB and Niagara, ON).
Based on their insights, the majority of the regions surveyed
noted that first time homebuyers are one audience group driving the
market across the nation, and many are looking for townhomes and
small residential properties such as bungalows, while move-up and
move-over homebuyers are looking for larger properties with
additional space. On the flip side, retirees are seeking to
down-size in most regions, with the exception of Calgary who are seeking villas and larger
condominiums. Similar, to last year, many homebuyers are still
looking for detached homes, as well semi-detached homes with income
potential to off-set rising cost of living. These trends are likely
to continue heading into 2025, according to RE/MAX brokers across
the country.
Western Canada
Heading into 2025, British
Columbia and the Prairies are anticipating average
residential prices to rise across the region by as much as three
to10 per cent. Specifically, sale prices are anticipated to
increase by three per cent in Kelowna/Central Okanagan, four per cent in
Vancouver Island, seven per cent in the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), five per cent in
Calgary, Alberta, 10 per cent in
Edmonton, Alberta, and five per
cent in Winnipeg, Manitoba. Sale
transactions in the region are also anticipated to increase by four
to 20 per cent in Vancouver Island, GVA, and Kelowna/Central Okanagan, and two to five per
cent in Edmonton and Calgary, as well as Winnipeg.
GVA and Victoria are
anticipating seller's markets for 2025, while Vancouver Island and
Kelowna/Central Okanagan are
balanced heading into the new year. In the Prairies, a mix of both
balanced and seller's markets are anticipated.
In Alberta, specifically
Calgary and Edmonton, continue to see demand from
out-of-province buyers from Ontario and British
Columbia who are searching for affordability. Calgary, in particular, has seen a boost in
popularity in the last few years, and as a result, affordable
housing is in low supply. As a result, Edmonton has seen an influx of homebuyers from
Calgary who have been "priced out"
and looking to Edmonton for an
affordable way to enter or invest in the housing market.
Ontario
As a result of economic conditions impacting markets across the
country, Ontario is anticipating
average residential sale price increases across the province. Due
to low supply and lack of affordable housing, Toronto expects a slight price increase of 0.1
per cent. Prices are expected to increase by two per cent in
Niagara; 2.3 per cent in Hamilton;
2.5 per cent in Ottawa, and
Kenora: three per cent in
Sault Ste. Marie, Thunder Bay, Muskoka, and Haliburton; four per cent in Kawartha Lakes;
4.5 per cent in London and
Burlington; five per cent in
Peterborough, Sudbury, North
Bay, Durham, Kingston, and York Region; six per cent in
Kitchener-Waterloo, Mississauga, and Brampton; and ten per cent in Simcoe
County.
Like Western Canada,
Ontario is expecting a mix of
market types in 2025 as different regions adjust to lower interest
rates. Majority of regions (36 per cent) are expected to be
balanced markets including Kitchener-Waterloo, the City of Toronto, Brampton, Mississauga, Durham, Kingston, Ottawa, and Sault
Ste. Marie. 31per cent are expected to be sellers' markets
including Sudbury, North Bay, Simcoe County, York Region,
Windsor, Kenora, and Thunder
Bay. Meanwhile Peterborough, Kawartha Lakes, Burlington, Hamilton, Muskoka, and Haliburton are expected to be buyers' markets.
Niagara is expected to experience both buyers' and balanced
conditions throughout 2025.
Despite ongoing affordability and inventory challenges across
multiple markets, buyer confidence is returning as first-time
homebuyers and sidelined buyers in Ontario feel the impact of lower mortgage
rates and the new 30-year amortizations. As a result, majority of
regions anticipate first-time homebuyers will drive market activity
in 2025, with the exception of larger regions in Southern Ontario including Toronto, Windsor, York Region, and Simcoe County which
predict move-up buyers will drive market activity due to the higher
home prices for entry level properties.
Atlantic Canada
In 2025, the average residential sale price in Atlantic Canada is anticipated to increase in
all markets while the number of sales in some markets are
expected to remain the same. Residential sales prices are expected
to increase by 1.5 in Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, 3.5
per cent in Saint John, New
Brunswick 5.5 per cent in Fredericton/Oromocto, New Brunswick, five per cent in
Halifax, Nova Scotia, eight per
cent in Truro & Colchester County, Nova Scotia and St.
John's, Newfoundland.
Number of sales are expected to increase by 1.5 in Charlottetown, five per cent in St John's, six per cent in Halifax, 10 per cent in Truro & Colchester
County. While Saint John and Fredericton/Oromocto are expected to remain flat. Across
all markets, first-time homebuyers are expected to drive market
activity and single-detached houses are expected to see the most
sales activity in 2025.
About Leger
Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research
firm. An online survey of 1,520 Canadians aged 18 years or older,
was completed between October 25-27,
2024, using Leger's online panel. Leger's online panel has
approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate
of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a
margin of error of +/-2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
About the RE/MAX Network
As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX,
LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than
140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than
110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to
RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC and
RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions,
Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the
world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by
residential transaction sides.
RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative,
entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the
flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence.
RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local
communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for
Children's Miracle Network Hospitals® and other
charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or
find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca.
For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please
visit blog.remax.ca.
Forward looking statements
This report includes "forward-looking statements" within the
meaning of the "safe harbour" provisions of the United States
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking
statements may be identified by the use of words such as "believe,"
"intend," "expect," "estimate," "plan," "outlook," "project," and
other similar words and expressions that predict or indicate future
events or trends that are not statements of historical matters.
These forward-looking statements include statements regarding
housing market conditions and the Company's results of operations,
performance and growth. Forward-looking statements should not be
read as guarantees of future performance or results.
Forward-looking statements are based on information available at
the time those statements are made and/or management's good faith
belief as of that time with respect to future events and are
subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual
performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in
or suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and
uncertainties include (1) the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has
impacted the Company and continues to pose significant and
widespread risks to the Company's business, the Company's ability
to successfully close the anticipated reacquisition and to
integrate the reacquired regions into its business, (3) changes in
the real estate market or interest rates and availability of
financing, (4) changes in business and economic activity in
general, (5) the Company's ability to attract and retain quality
franchisees, (6) the Company's franchisees' ability to recruit and
retain real estate agents and mortgage loan originators, (7)
changes in laws and regulations, (8) the Company's ability to
enhance, market, and protect the RE/MAX and Motto Mortgage brands,
(9) the Company's ability to implement its technology initiatives,
and (10) fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, and those
risks and uncertainties described in the sections entitled "Risk
Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial
Condition and Results of Operations" in the most recent Annual
Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with
the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and similar
disclosures in subsequent periodic and current reports filed with
the SEC, which are available on the investor relations page of the
Company's website at www.remax.com and on the SEC
website at www.sec.gov. Readers are cautioned not to
place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak
only as of the date on which they are made. Except as required by
law, the Company does not intend, and undertakes no duty, to update
this information to reflect future events or circumstances.
SOURCE RE/MAX Canada
