New light vehicle sales in June are expected
to maintain pace with the previous month result and translate to
one of the stronger seasonally adjusted results since 2021
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., June 26,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Mobility
projects new light vehicle sales volume in June 2024 to reach 1.40 million units, up
approximately 1% year over year. This volume would translate to an
estimated sales pace of 16.2 million units (seasonally adjusted
annual rate: SAAR), which would be the highest monthly mark for
this metric since May 2021.
While recent events such as the dealer management software
cyberattack and stop-sale announcement on certain Toyota and Lexus
vehicles could hamper some of the progress realized earlier in the
month, June US auto sales are expected to follow-up the notable May
advance with another solid result.
"June auto sales are expected to sustain the recent progress in
the market," said Chris Hopson,
principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "Supported by growing
incentive and inventory levels, the monthly sales pace will have
advanced every month in the second quarter and the estimated 16.0
million-unit SAAR average projected for the period would be the
highest quarterly mark since Q2 2021. Mixed signals regarding
the outlook for the second half of the year remain entrenched
though, as new vehicle affordability concerns remain prevalent, and
inventories are not expected to advance as strongly as they have
done over the past 12 months."
According to Matt Trommer,
associate director, S&P Global Mobility, "Analysis of May
retail advertised inventory data in the U.S. finds that
inventory is still on the rise, with electric vehicle (EV)
inventory growing faster than the overall industry. Available
retail advertised inventory at the end of May continued to grow,
reaching 2.79 million vehicles, up 0.4% compared to April and 61%
over last May. This is the 12th consecutive month of increases (22
of the last 23 months have grown vs. the prior month), but the rate
of increase is the lowest since May
2023."
Mixed signals continue to prevail within the new vehicle demand
environment, and we do not expect sales volumes over the next
several months to dynamically change from the current trend.
S&P Global Mobility projects calendar year 2024 new vehicle
sales volume to reach approximately 16.0 million units, growth of
over 2%, or an incremental 374,000 units, from the 2023 level.
|
|
|
|
|
US Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Jun 24
(Est)
|
May
24
|
Jun
23
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,402,300
|
1,429,028
|
1,368,713
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
16.2
|
15.9
|
16.1
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
13.0
|
12.8
|
12.9
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.2
|
3.1
|
3.2
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. June BEV share is
expected to reach 7.5%, similar to the month prior reading and
continued advancement from the Q1 2024 results. BEV share is
expected to advance over the next several periods, assisted by the
the roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda
Prologue and Fiat 500e, all scheduled for launch over the next few
months, followed by new BEVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S and
Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the second half of
2024.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility