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ADVFN Morning London Market Report: Friday 18 October 2024

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London open: Stocks fall as China growth slows; UK retail sales in focus

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London stocks fell in early trade on Friday after data showed that economic growth in China slowed, although UK retail sales figures were better than expected.

At 0840 BST, the FTSE 100 was down 0.4% at 8,350.56.

Data released earlier by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s GDP grew 4.6% in the third quarter, down from 4.7% growth in the second quarter, but above economists’ expectations for growth of 4.5%.

Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said: “Quite apart from being shy of the official 5% target, the pockets of weakness as evidenced by a flagging property sector, high youth unemployment and low consumer confidence are all areas which need to be addressed.”

On home shores, data from the Office for National Statistics showed that retail sales ticked higher in September, beating expectations, as consumers splashed out on technology.

Month-on-month sales volumes rose 0.3%. Growth was slower than the 1% improvement seen in August, but was comfortably ahead of forecasts for a 0.3% decline. Volumes were also at their highest index levels since July 2022.

Year-on-year, sales jumped 3.9%, the largest annual rise February 2022.

The best performing sector was computer and telecommunications, which helped partially offset a 2.4% decrease in supermarkets. Other non-foods, which includes tech, spiked 5.5%.

Cooler weather also helped support clothing and footwear sales.

Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, said: “Autumn led people to upgrade their wardrobe, as well as the last minute student dash for new computers, as the new academic year began.

“Big ticket items, such as furniture and other household goods, continued to take a hit from some consumers, such as those saving for Christmas or preferring to spend on experiences.”

In equity markets, housebuilders were on the back foot, with Taylor WimpeyBarratt DevelopmentsPersimmon and Bellway all down. Richard Hunter said the stocks were “under some pressure as Budget uncertainty continues to unsettle the outlook despite new government pledges to revive the sector”.

Media group Future tumbled as it said that chief executive Jon Steinberg plans to step down from the board later next year to relocate back to the US with his family. Steinberg’s notice period is 12 months and the board will now launch a search for his successor.

Bunzl was in the red after a downgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’ at Citi, which said the shares are now trading in line with long run valuation multiples.

On the upside, heavily-weighted miners rallied, with AntofagastaAnglo AmericanGlencore and Rio Tinto among the top gainers on the FTSE 100.

 

Top 10 FTSE 100 Risers

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# Name Change Pct Change Cur Price
1 Prudential Plc +3.45% +22.60 677.40
2 Antofagasta Plc +2.80% +50.50 1,853.00
3 Anglo American Plc +2.67% +62.50 2,400.00
4 Aib Group Plc +2.47% +10.00 415.00
5 Glencore Plc +2.32% +9.35 412.55
6 Ferguson Enterprises Inc. +1.62% +250.00 15,720.00
7 Flutter Entertainment Plc +1.49% +265.00 18,050.00
8 Bp Plc +1.42% +5.70 405.70
9 Rio Tinto Plc +1.31% +65.00 5,011.00
10 Wise Plc +0.86% +6.00 704.00

 

Top 10 FTSE 100 Fallers

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# Name Change Pct Change Cur Price
1 British American Tobacco Plc -2.68% -73.00 2,655.00
2 Barratt Redrow Plc -2.41% -11.90 482.20
3 Bunzl Plc -1.94% -70.00 3,540.00
4 Taylor Wimpey Plc -1.93% -3.20 162.85
5 Relx Plc -1.85% -69.00 3,656.00
6 Associated British Foods Plc -1.77% -42.00 2,335.00
7 Unilever Plc -1.65% -80.00 4,777.00
8 Sse Plc -1.40% -27.00 1,905.00
9 Next Plc -1.15% -120.00 10,335.00
10 Haleon Plc -1.12% -4.30 380.60

 

US close: Markets mixed but Dow hits another record

Wall Street’s three main equity indices finished in mixed fashion on Thursday as investors digested a flurry of economic data, but the Dow managed to eke out another all-time high.

Several economic indicators came in better than forecasts during the session, including jobless claims, retail sales, the NAHB housing market index and a gauge of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Commenting on the retail sales data specifically, Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said: “The ongoing resilience of consumer spending suggests fears over the health of the economy are overdone. We expect layoffs to remain low, helping to keep the unemployment rate close to current levels over the coming months.”

The Dow rose 0.37% to settle at a new record of 43,239.05, topping the 43,077.70 peak reached the previous session. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finished flat.

Economic data barrage

US initial jobless claims fell 19,000 to 241,000 in the week to 12 October, well below market expectations for a reading of 260,000, principally due to disruptions caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Elsewhere, outstanding claims increased by 9,000 to 1.86m, while the four-week moving average, which aims to strip out week-to-week volatility, rose by 4,750 to 236,250.

US retail sales rose 0.4% in September, driven by a broad-based increase across several sectors, following a modest 0.1% increase in August, according to the Commerce Department. Excluding sales at auto dealerships and gasoline stations, retail sales advanced by an even stronger 0.7%.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index surged to 10.3 in October, a marked increase when compared to the previous month’s reading of 1.7 and significantly ahead of expectations for a print of 3.

US industrial production fell by 0.3% during the month after a 0.3% gain in August, as strikes at Boeing and recent hurricanes held back output. The consensus estimate was for a fall of just 0.2%.

The NAHB’s housing market index rose to 43 in October, up from 41 in September and ahead of expectations for a reading of 42 – the highest reading since June. The gauge for current sales conditions rose by two points to 47, while sales expectations in the upcoming six months increased by four points to 57.

Finally, business inventories rose by 0.3% in August, according to the Census Bureau, in line with both the prior month’s revised growth rate and market estimates for a fifth consecutive monthly increase in business inventories. Stocks increased 0.1% at manufacturers and merchant wholesalers. On an annualised basis, business inventories grew by 2.4% in August.

Market movers

Chip stocks Nvidia and AMD finished with moderate gains after sector peer Taiwan Semiconductor posted unexpectedly strong third-quarter results. Sentiment in the sector had been dampened in recent days after a cautious outlook from ASML.

Uber fell on rumours it is considering a possible bid for travel booking website operator Expedia, according to the Financial Times. An Expedia takeover would easily mark the ridesharing giant’s biggest acquisition to date.

Aluminium manufacturer Alcoa erased early gains to finish firmly in the red despite reporting quarterly adjusted earnings that topped expectations.

Insurance group Travelers surged 9% after third-quarter earnings per share came in 46% higher than the consensus estimate, with premiums and margins rising strongly.

In contrast, health insurer Elevance Health dropped nearly 11% after missing forecasts badly with third-quarter profits, citing “unprecedented challenges” and increased costs in the Medicaid business.

 

Friday newspaper round-up: Post Office, bankers’ bonuses, new job ads

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is taking action to ensure her budget plan for a multibillion-pound increase in government borrowing to fund infrastructure projects avoids a Liz Truss-style meltdown in financial markets. Ahead of her tax and spending event on 30 October, the chancellor is convening on Friday the first meeting of a taskforce of leading City figures to advise on infrastructure projects. The government will also launch a watchdog to oversee public works and ensure value for money for the taxpayer. – Guardian

Language in an infamous Post Office document that categorised branch operators as “negroid types” was common in the public sector from the 1980s but continued to be used in the scandal-hit organisation until 2016, an inquiry has heard. The document, which revealed that lawyers investigating post office operators in the Horizon computer scandal used a racist term to categorise black workers, first became public in May last year when it was released to campaigners seeking justice for those wrongfully prosecuted. – Guardian

Guardian journalists are to vote on potential strike action as anger grows over plans to sell its Sunday sister title, The Observer, to a loss-making startup. The National Union of Journalists (NUJ) will consult more than 600 journalists at both newspapers over their willingness to strike over the proposed sale. The NUJ said the consultative ballot would run for the next week and would likely lead to a formal vote on whether to take industrial action. – Telegraph

The Bank of England is planning to further loosen the rules on bankers’ bonuses in another attempt to bolster the international competitiveness of the City. Sam Woods, who runs the Bank’s Prudential Regulation Authority, revealed on Thursday that the regulator would propose reducing from eight years to five the length of time that bonuses awarded to the highest-paid bankers at firms must be deferred. – The Times

The number of new job postings has fallen to the lowest level since the pandemic as employers anticipate new laws on workers’ rights and tax-raising measures in the budget on October 30. The number of active advertisements for roles declined by 10 per cent month-on-month to 1.5 million in September as businesses took a “wait-and-see” approach to recruitment, according to a report from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation. – The Times

 

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